A Precipitation event! Updated 11/25/20

 In the previous post on the 20th (read it here) I discussed the system that would occur on the 21st and said "In general, amounts will be a quarter of an inch or less.  But there will be bands of precipitation (relatively small) where some will get closer to 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch."  Here is what fell....

Just that one storm is encouraging going forward as it will return later this winter and spring.  

The next system I discussed was to occur Monday with another possible later in the week, based on energy across the Pacific.  It appeared the first system would impact mainly Nebraska and the eastern half of Kansas.  As has been the case with a couple of the systems this fall, the first one amplified way more than expected and thus slowed down.  The precipitation occurred yesterday and was MUCH more than expected! This is yet another encouraging sign!  However, what is still very concerning is that the hardest hit drought area keeps missing out on the heavier precipitation.    Here is a map of the precipitation that occurred yesterday with this storm....

There were reports of over 2 inches of rain across parts of Saline county and up in to north central or northeast Kansas.  And, for the second time this month, there was a lot of lightning and thunder.  That is unusual for November.

Because the upper level low was so compact and energetic it was capable of producing an area of snow.  However, the area was very small compared to the area of precipitation that it produced.  A cold source really was not available (colder yes, but not snow-like).  But, it still produced the snow!  The largest amount I saw was 6 inches with numerous reports of 2 to 4 inches...lesser on the edge of the snowfield. 

So, as I've mentioned a zillion times.  The weather pattern of upper level troughs and ridges and orientation of the jet stream will start to repeat or have very similar characteristics.  I still haven't seen evidence of this repeating but it has got to be getting close.  The pattern started setting up that first week of October and I'm going to say centered on October 7.   Looking ahead I suspect that mid-December ought to get really interesting based on a hunch, thinking the wavelength is around 55 days give or take.

Later this weekend or first of the week there should be another system but at this point it looks like it will stay way south across Texas.  Long range computer models are getting screwy late next week and I think that might be related to an active jet stream across the Pacific.  All bets are off beyond about 5 days.  

I'll try and update around the 1st.

Brief update - 11/20/20

This will have to be brief.  In the last update on the 13th (read it by clicking here) I ended with "There is enough energy across the Pacific Ocean basin that I see a possibility of another amplified system centered around the 21st.  That might be our next shot at precipitation (20th, 21st, 22nd).  Before that, much warmer weather is expected next week."

At this point all is on track.  It was definitely warmer!  In fact, temperatures were 15 to 20 degrees above normal!  That is pretty significant!  The precipitation event expected does look like it will be primarily tomorrow (Saturday the 21st).  In general, amounts will be a quarter of an inch or less.  But there will be bands of precipitation (relatively small) where some will get closer to 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch.  The rain will be widespread and maybe as far west as the Colorado border but again it won't be much.  

The Pacific jetstream moving into the Conus is energetic and there should be a few more systems by Monday and perhaps again later in the week.  The first one will bring the majority of the precipitation to Nebraska, Iowa and the eastern half of Kansas with just widely scattered "stuff" to western Kansas.  Neither system (Saturday and Monday) will do much to alleviate the worsening drought.  

Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through the end of the next week but it appears they are discounting any late week system....

The possible system towards the end of the next week may or may not be that significant.  I say that because being a week out in the pattern like this it is virtually impossible to predict the time, space and intensity.  But, just know that there "could be" an amplified system.  

As far as the returning systems I discussed in the previous post, I just don't know yet what that repeating cycle length is or will be.  I have a hunch that it is between 50 and 60 days. 

If I don't have an opportunity to update this blog next Wednesday (25th), then I won't get to it until around the 1st.

Update - November 13, 2020

 Sigh...

I had attended to post an update last week.  But, I had to change out laptops and lost a lot of data links and programs I use to keep up on the weather.  Most have been restored.

The most recent precipitation event on November 9th was a bit of a surprise,.. at least it was not expected 3 or 4 days out.  It originally had looked like the system would be too fast and not amplified enough to bring precipitation to areas west of southeast Kansas.  As it turned out, the system amplified into a closed low over the 4 corners region and was then capable of drawing moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico.  Unfortunately for areas hardest hit by the drought very little or no rain fell.  Here is a map of precipitation for the event....

At several locations there was even severe sized hail (1 to 1 1/4 inch in diameter).  So, the system was very energetic.  In this new northern hemispheric weather pattern that developed in early October, this is the second time a strong upper low amplified across the west and benefited at least a big chunk of the central U.S..  Yes, farther west there hasn't been that much.  That IS a concern.  But at the same time, I'm slightly encouraged that there have been these 2 events.  

So going forward into winter and next spring, these 2 episodes will return.  More than likely they will be impacting events (blizzards for the cold season and severe weather in the warm season).  However, what still has me concerned is that there will likely be long stretches of no precipitation going into spring.  Those periods may also be associated with above normal temperatures and lots of wind.  That's not a good combination. 

In the previous post I did on the 29th of October (read it by clicking here) I mentioned November 10-15 being a suspicious period that models were converging on that could bring some weather.  Unfortunately, there just isn't enough amplification of the jetstream to bring precipitation for the high plains.  It looks like southeast Kansas will be as far northwest as we can expect with this one.  Just more wind and warmer weather for the high plains.  Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through the end of next week....

No help for the drought area....

U.S. Drought map

So, as I've mentioned way too many times, the weather pattern that forms in early fall will begin to cycle at some point.  I don't know if that will be every 30, 40, 50, 60 days, etc. until I see the whites of it's eyes (I can recognize similarities across the northern hemisphere).  There is enough energy across the Pacific Ocean basin that I see a possibility of another amplified system centered around the 21st.  That might be our next shot at precipitation (20th, 21st, 22nd).  Before that, much warmer weather is expected next week.  

I'll try and update later next week.

Updated 10/29/20

 If you didn't have a chance, please read the post I did on the 22nd.  Click here.

In that post the discussion centered on the cold and then the potential storm for mid-week (which just occurred).  The cold air was certainly very cold.  I said it wasn't going to be record setting but I probably should have looked a records a little closer.  Low temperatures didn't set a record but the very cold calendar day high temperatures did set a few records this past Monday.  There were high temperatures that were only in the teens (I was expecting 20s which for the most part is what occurred).  The attention then turned to this mid-week system.

Here is the important part I discussed in that posting on the 22nd..."But....will it amplify and follow the blue line track?  This would occur in concert with a building ridge (the blue zig-zag) across the eastern Pacific because of the upper low.  That would mean a more favorable storm track and possible significant precipitation event for the central U.S. by mid-week.  This would also be a part of the pattern that would repeat at some frequency during the winter and spring."

The digging of the system I was talking about developed into a huge closed low aloft and well west of the high plains.  It's what I call an anticyclonic wave break.  This event has very SIGNIFICANT implications on this years pattern.  A similar event occurred in September (the previous widespread precip event).  Even though that was part of the former weather pattern, what forced that storm is likely what forced this current storm.  So that part of this new weather pattern will repeat again going through winter and through the spring months (and even into the summer).  However, and as I mentioned in that last post, the big question will be "how often".  Maybe every 30 days - maybe 60.  Unfortunately I won't know until it occurs again.  Plus, the next time it could be farther north...or maybe farther south!  Or maybe too far west or east!  But, what is encouraging is that it actually happened. 

This current storm, that has now moved east, "could of" been MUCH more significant!.  First, if it wasn't for the very cold air moving all the way to the Gulf, the extent of the precipitation would have been bigger and the amounts would have been even heavier.  Second, the hurricane that went into Louisiana also "robbed" the plains system of moisture to work with.   The gradient of who got a lot and who got very little was very tight.  Without the aforementioned hurricane and very cold air, I bet the precipitation would have been farther west and north.

Here is a map of what fell yesterday....

And here is what fell this past week (including Monday and Tuesday's snow and freezing rain) - this map includes additional reports and radar data... 

Look at the snow that fell around the high plains, especially across Texas and Oklahoma!

So, what's next?

The very cold air is not likely to return for at least 2 weeks.  It will be mostly milder with an occasional cold frontal passage (first may be late in the weekend) but no significantly cold air is expected.  Any precipitation would likely remain across the higher terrain of the Rockies .  Here is the expected precipitation (from the Weather Prediction Center) through next Thursday...

Long range forecast models are starting to converge on a possible through (dip in the jet stream) about November 10-15.  That could lead to warm and windy followed by a return of some pretty cold air.  Precipitation would be highly dependent on the amplitude and orientation of the jet stream.  That is impossible to predict at this point.  Again, the weather pattern is just getting set up and return intervals of specific orientations of the jet stream just can't be predicted at this point.  Keep your fingers crossed that we get those amplifying jet streams or anticyclonic wave break storms more frequently and to the west.  I wouldn't count on a frequent occurrence but hopefully enough that others that missed the precipitation this time will benefit the next. 

I'll shoot for an update around the 5th.

Update for October 22, 2020

 If you haven't had a chance to view the previous post, please read it by clicking here.

There still hasn't been much to discuss as far as the outlook through the winter and into the spring.  Yes, there are major changes occurring with the short term weather.  But what about that outlook?

First this shot of cold air coming in waves (today into Friday and Sunday into Tuesday) will bring an end to the growing season for most vegetation (if it hasn't already due to the drought).  It's not unusual for what we will be experiencing tonight and Friday and into Saturday morning as temperatures will be fall into the 20s.  But the shot of cold late Sunday into Tuesday is touching on unseasonably cold.  Not a record, but pretty dang cold.  Those with pivots running should be prepared as temperatures Monday will likely not get above freezing and lows Tuesday morning will fall into well into the teens at most locations.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a few single digit readings across eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas.

As far as precipitation, there will likely be some, especially Monday and Monday night but it really doesn't look that significant.

Attention turns to what could occur by mid-week.  There are several upper level storms lined up from northwest to southeast.  Look at the map:

The X with the superscript 2 is what I'm watching carefully (plus the upper level low - the red L - across the Pacific.  This just might be a clue for part of the weather pattern this winter and into next spring. 

Will that storm (X2) follow X1 (red dashed line)?  If so then it won't bring much, if any,  precipitation to the central plains. But....will it amplify and follow the blue line track?  This would occur in concert with a building ridge (the blue zig-zag) across the eastern Pacific because of the upper low.  That would mean a more favorable storm track and possible significant precipitation event for the central U.S. by mid-week.  This would also be a part of the pattern that would repeat at some frequency during the winter and spring.

BUT....if there is no linking between the upper low (building ridge) and the developing storm, then it would likely move faster and farther north limiting the extent of precipitation for at least the high plains.  If that occurs, the confidence increases of this terribly dry weather continuing going into winter and into next spring. I'm not saying NO rain or snow this winter, but rather odds would continue to favor below normal amounts.

I'll try and update in about a week.

Updated 10/8/2020

As many of you know from what I've discussed a million times, the "new" weather pattern starts to develop during the early fall, specifically around the first week of October.  Since that weather regime is just now getting started, there really isn't much to contribute to this posting that is different from the post I did on September 24 or prior on September 15.  I have had concerns during the past 1 to 1 1/2 years of significant dryness returning, which obviously it has.  The question is how bad (what magnitude) and how long it will last.

Here is the latest drought map....and this should be alarming to many folks....

The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is pretty dang pessimistic through the end of the year.

Again, the pattern is just now getting established so I'm not ready to throw in the towel all together.  But, again it's been expected to turn significantly drier.  Look at the anomaly of precipitation from May 2018 through April of 2019.  When it's THAT wet, the pendulum will swing back the other way.  We just hope not to extreme levels.  Could this be another 2011 coming up?  Again, without the new pattern being fully established, it's pretty hard to say.  I wouldn't discount it completely, although it's not likely to those levels.

Here is that map from May 2018 through April of last year....just as a comparison of where we were then and were we are now.  BTW, that was the wettest 12 month period on record (nationwide)...

As far as the balance of October, many of the long range computer models have absolutely nothing!  That is NO moisture through October 31!  On the other hand, there are a couple of computer models that have a shot of significant precipitation in about a week.  It really is going to depend on amplification of weak weather systems coming out of the Pacific Northwest.  There is just a VERY slight indicator that it could happen.  The dry outlook for the next 10-15 days is much more likely than wet. If there does happen to be amplification of the jetstream during the next week and we get moisture, that will be just one of the clues to the upcoming pattern.  We better hope for that amplification!

BTW, the hurricane will not help for the high plains.

From the Weather Prediction Center into next Thursday the 15th...

Update - September 24, 2020

Those that might have missed it, after quite an adventure I was able to log in a update this blog last week.  That post can be read here.  In that post I discussed the outlook for the fall, winter and into spring.  If you haven't had an opportunity to do so, please go back and read that.  One aspect I did not mention in particular, is snowfall during the season when a La Nina is present.  For Dodge City (and likely the majority of the high plains), out of the past 21 La Nina events, snowfall for the season (Sept-May) was less than normal 16 times.  But, if the La Nina was weak or moderate then 10 were less snowy that normal.  This year the La Nina will probably stay weak to moderate.  So that is about a 50/50 split!  In my "gut feeling" I said Dodge City would receive more than 20 inches (normal is 21.1").

In that same post I stressed again (I've done that a billion times) that the new pattern does not get going and established until later in the fall.  Until the first full cycle of jet stream orientation of amplitude and wave frequency completes, there really is no way to have an idea what the pattern will bring.  Again, I'm only going off a gut feeling.  

The dry fall sure seems likely though!  Hopefully there will be at least one or two systems that bring moisture, and I think there will be just that. As far as an early freeze...there will be a pretty good shot of really cold air early next week and again in early October.  It doesn't appear like a widespread freeze for the high plains.  However, we're approaching the "normal" date of the first freeze across the western high plains anyway.

During the next few weeks I'm sure a flurry of winter outlooks/forecasts will be flooding social media.  I'm sure those outlooks will be all over the place.  Many/most of these outlooks will be based completely on the fact that La Nina will be in place.  But, every La Nina is different.  Plus there are other factors that I'll look into once the pattern starts to develop that most will ignore.

I'll leave you with this.  In the past 25 years that I've lived at my location northwest of Dodge, I have NEVER seen squirrel behavior like I'm seeing this fall.  I have a ton of oak trees (not just burr).  Those squirrels have been stripping out GREEN acorns and burying them everywhere.  I have not witnessed them taking green ones before they've started drying down and turning.  It sure seems like this is occurring early.  Does this mean anything?  I can't answer that but I do know that animals sometimes have behaviors tied to the weather.  If you have a comment or idea on this behavior, leave a comment here on this blog or shoot me an email (wxmaniam@yahoo.com).

So, let's hope for some moisture for the winter wheat emergence.   Prospects look dismal for a while.. Here is the outlook into the first of October from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC).   Not good.  But, there should be at least some very light rain or drizzle with the first shot of cold air late Sunday or Monday.  It just won't be that much. I'm sure the WPC will update.  

Hopefully there will be a couple of chances in October.  More on that later.