Those that might have missed it, after quite an adventure I was able to log in a update this blog last week. That post can be read here. In that post I discussed the outlook for the fall, winter and into spring. If you haven't had an opportunity to do so, please go back and read that. One aspect I did not mention in particular, is snowfall during the season when a La Nina is present. For Dodge City (and likely the majority of the high plains), out of the past 21 La Nina events, snowfall for the season (Sept-May) was less than normal 16 times. But, if the La Nina was weak or moderate then 10 were less snowy that normal. This year the La Nina will probably stay weak to moderate. So that is about a 50/50 split! In my "gut feeling" I said Dodge City would receive more than 20 inches (normal is 21.1").
In that same post I stressed again (I've done that a billion times) that the new pattern does not get going and established until later in the fall. Until the first full cycle of jet stream orientation of amplitude and wave frequency completes, there really is no way to have an idea what the pattern will bring. Again, I'm only going off a gut feeling.
The dry fall sure seems likely though! Hopefully there will be at least one or two systems that bring moisture, and I think there will be just that. As far as an early freeze...there will be a pretty good shot of really cold air early next week and again in early October. It doesn't appear like a widespread freeze for the high plains. However, we're approaching the "normal" date of the first freeze across the western high plains anyway.
During the next few weeks I'm sure a flurry of winter outlooks/forecasts will be flooding social media. I'm sure those outlooks will be all over the place. Many/most of these outlooks will be based completely on the fact that La Nina will be in place. But, every La Nina is different. Plus there are other factors that I'll look into once the pattern starts to develop that most will ignore.
I'll leave you with this. In the past 25 years that I've lived at my location northwest of Dodge, I have NEVER seen squirrel behavior like I'm seeing this fall. I have a ton of oak trees (not just burr). Those squirrels have been stripping out GREEN acorns and burying them everywhere. I have not witnessed them taking green ones before they've started drying down and turning. It sure seems like this is occurring early. Does this mean anything? I can't answer that but I do know that animals sometimes have behaviors tied to the weather. If you have a comment or idea on this behavior, leave a comment here on this blog or shoot me an email (wxmaniam@yahoo.com).
So, let's hope for some moisture for the winter wheat emergence. Prospects look dismal for a while.. Here is the outlook into the first of October from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC). Not good. But, there should be at least some very light rain or drizzle with the first shot of cold air late Sunday or Monday. It just won't be that much. I'm sure the WPC will update.
Hopefully there will be a couple of chances in October. More on that later.
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