In the previous post on the 20th (read it here) I discussed the system that would occur on the 21st and said "In general, amounts will be a quarter of an inch or less. But there will be bands of precipitation (relatively small) where some will get closer to 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch." Here is what fell....
Just that one storm is encouraging going forward as it will return later this winter and spring.
The next system I discussed was to occur Monday with another possible later in the week, based on energy across the Pacific. It appeared the first system would impact mainly Nebraska and the eastern half of Kansas. As has been the case with a couple of the systems this fall, the first one amplified way more than expected and thus slowed down. The precipitation occurred yesterday and was MUCH more than expected! This is yet another encouraging sign! However, what is still very concerning is that the hardest hit drought area keeps missing out on the heavier precipitation. Here is a map of the precipitation that occurred yesterday with this storm....
There were reports of over 2 inches of rain across parts of Saline county and up in to north central or northeast Kansas. And, for the second time this month, there was a lot of lightning and thunder. That is unusual for November.
Because the upper level low was so compact and energetic it was capable of producing an area of snow. However, the area was very small compared to the area of precipitation that it produced. A cold source really was not available (colder yes, but not snow-like). But, it still produced the snow! The largest amount I saw was 6 inches with numerous reports of 2 to 4 inches...lesser on the edge of the snowfield.
So, as I've mentioned a zillion times. The weather pattern of upper level troughs and ridges and orientation of the jet stream will start to repeat or have very similar characteristics. I still haven't seen evidence of this repeating but it has got to be getting close. The pattern started setting up that first week of October and I'm going to say centered on October 7. Looking ahead I suspect that mid-December ought to get really interesting based on a hunch, thinking the wavelength is around 55 days give or take.
Later this weekend or first of the week there should be another system but at this point it looks like it will stay way south across Texas. Long range computer models are getting screwy late next week and I think that might be related to an active jet stream across the Pacific. All bets are off beyond about 5 days.
I'll try and update around the 1st.
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