Update - November 13, 2020

 Sigh...

I had attended to post an update last week.  But, I had to change out laptops and lost a lot of data links and programs I use to keep up on the weather.  Most have been restored.

The most recent precipitation event on November 9th was a bit of a surprise,.. at least it was not expected 3 or 4 days out.  It originally had looked like the system would be too fast and not amplified enough to bring precipitation to areas west of southeast Kansas.  As it turned out, the system amplified into a closed low over the 4 corners region and was then capable of drawing moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico.  Unfortunately for areas hardest hit by the drought very little or no rain fell.  Here is a map of precipitation for the event....

At several locations there was even severe sized hail (1 to 1 1/4 inch in diameter).  So, the system was very energetic.  In this new northern hemispheric weather pattern that developed in early October, this is the second time a strong upper low amplified across the west and benefited at least a big chunk of the central U.S..  Yes, farther west there hasn't been that much.  That IS a concern.  But at the same time, I'm slightly encouraged that there have been these 2 events.  

So going forward into winter and next spring, these 2 episodes will return.  More than likely they will be impacting events (blizzards for the cold season and severe weather in the warm season).  However, what still has me concerned is that there will likely be long stretches of no precipitation going into spring.  Those periods may also be associated with above normal temperatures and lots of wind.  That's not a good combination. 

In the previous post I did on the 29th of October (read it by clicking here) I mentioned November 10-15 being a suspicious period that models were converging on that could bring some weather.  Unfortunately, there just isn't enough amplification of the jetstream to bring precipitation for the high plains.  It looks like southeast Kansas will be as far northwest as we can expect with this one.  Just more wind and warmer weather for the high plains.  Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through the end of next week....

No help for the drought area....

U.S. Drought map

So, as I've mentioned way too many times, the weather pattern that forms in early fall will begin to cycle at some point.  I don't know if that will be every 30, 40, 50, 60 days, etc. until I see the whites of it's eyes (I can recognize similarities across the northern hemisphere).  There is enough energy across the Pacific Ocean basin that I see a possibility of another amplified system centered around the 21st.  That might be our next shot at precipitation (20th, 21st, 22nd).  Before that, much warmer weather is expected next week.  

I'll try and update later next week.