Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Quick update - 06/28/16

If you haven't checked for a while, these posts will have to be infrequent for a while.  I just have too much going on to keep up.

The major changes going on include the upper flow becoming west/northwest and minor disturbances rotating through the flow.  Typically with WNW flow aloft in late June and early July, the opportunity for nightly MCS's (Mesoscale Convective Systems) increases.  This has been the case during the past few days, and will continue into the first of next week.

Here is the latest satellite image:

The red X over southern California will likely become a HUGE weather maker by the end of the week.  It will likely get caught up in the flow and head towards the plains.  It has tropical origins and given the overall pattern aloft and ample low level moisture, copious amounts of rainfall from thunderstorms (some severe) will become a real possibility, within an widespread area!

Here is the outlook for rainfall through next Monday, from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC):
This will represent an average amount (at least a strong possibility).  Some areas will get less, some areas more.  The "mores" will likely see flooding issues.  One of the long range computer forecast models I look at has even more robust amounts for western Kansas.

Again, I just won't have much time to update this blog but will try the best I can.

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Updates may be few and far between - 06/15/16

I have much going on and little time for anything else.  I doubt I will have time to update this blog in the near future.

Fact:  The summer time pattern has arrived.

Fact: For the high plains west of I-35, there will be very little chance for thunderstorms through at least June 24.

Fact: Daytime temperatures will become hot with local variance depending on soil moisture and the amount of greenness.  RH readings will start to drop during late afternoon hours as the cheat grass has matured and the winter  wheat has ripened and will be harvested and dry air aloft is mixed to the surface.

If something major changes in thinking, I will see if I can update this blog.  Otherwise, it may not be until late in the month.

Wednesday, June 1, 2016

Was May wet? Now what? Updated 06/01/16

As you can imagine, I've been incredibly busy at work with the severe storms last week and it will take a long time before I'm caught up.  Thus, this post will have to be very brief.

In the post I did on 5/20 (read it by clicking here), I discussed the upcoming week that was expected to be very active with an extended period of severe weather.  Unfortunately, that did come to pass.
As far as rainfall, some areas got a lot, some areas not much at all.  The following map shows the approximate rainfall that fell during May (click for a larger map)....

Unfortunately, there were quite a few areas that were very dry for May.  But, they were also the same areas (in general) that received copious rains during April.

The percent of normal map follows: (again click for a larger map)

Although there were areas that didn't get much rain at all, other locations received TOO much rain!

I wish I had more time on my hand to evaluate this pattern.  For the next 10 days, there the pattern is definitely drying out for those that have been getting rains.  Here is the outlook potential rainfall through June 10 (this is a computer generated forecast)....

The Weather Prediction Center has a similar forecast through the end of the weekend (7 days).

Even though I haven't had time to analyze much, I still think (from earlier assessments in May) that the period from June 10-20 may become somewhat active which increasing chances for moisture. 

I'm not sure I'll have a chance to update this blog before next week.