Here comes winter!

 In the previous posting on the 14th (read it here) I talked about the "new" weather pattern that was forming - and always does during the fall of each year (across the northern hemisphere). The first significant weather event of the new weather pattern had just concluded (primarily on Tuesday the 12th), including heavy rain, some hail but more importantly tornadoes.  These tornadoes are not the typical tornadoes that most are aware of.  They are termed QLCS (Quasi-Linear Convective System) tornadoes and essentially form on the leading edge of high winds that surge at the surface wind shift associated with a line of thunderstorms.  Meteorologists have known and somewhat have understood them for decades.  Storm spotters, however, will have a very difficult if not impossible time seeing/reporting them.  They are very quick forming and rapidly moving tornadoes.  In my forecast area of western Kansas I was able to document 10 of them that occurred that Tuesday night (12th).  Also, the majority of the time they form after dark.

Just one week later another storm system moved across the central part of the country and yet another week (last night) later another event occurred.  This sequence is one of the "keys" to this years pattern.  I have concerns from what I have already seen with respect to this coming spring weather.  Maybe not for all of the high plains, but certainly for at least the majority of Kansas and the central plains.   That discussion will be brought up again this spring.

These three systems have brought widespread rain to the lower high plains and points east.  The western high plains was mostly dry - as had been a concern going into November (I saw a possibility of an extended dry period).  But it's not surprising as many fall convective systems will fire up farther east where moisture is more readily available.  This system yesterday (and today for eastern Kansas) is one clue to winter weather this year and I would expect a winter type storm to be farther west and south.

For this past system yesterday and today, here is the rainfall that occurred (and still occurring across far eastern Kansas)...

Combing this current system with what occurred a week ago (again most of the high plains missed out)....

For the month of October (it does include a "bit" from the previous weather cycle)....

One weather element that has NOT been lacking is the stupid wind.  I know there has been some significant blowing soil across many areas of the high plains where it's been drier but with much better conditions farther east towards the 100th meridian (runs through Dodge City).  Of course, and unfortunately, these wind events are typical for fall weather. 

In that previous posting on the 14th I discussed the expected cold weather for that following weekend.  Many areas across the high plains experienced a season ending freeze western central Kansas, eastern Colorado and points north around the 16th.

But what about the remainder of the area?  Did you notice the title of this posting?  Yeah - I'm afraid so.

Looking at this mornings upper level chart with the jet stream....

The big ol' red L over Springfield Missouri this morning represents a really strong upper level storm which was responsible for the west coast getting pounded by exceptional rain totals (and snow across the high country). That is also what brought the thunderstorms last night across the eastern 2/3 of Kansas and rains today across the eastern parts of the central U.S..  And the upper high (the big blue H) across southeast Canada combined with the upper low over Springfield is a very important feature with respect to weather going forward. Looking out across the Pacific represents a very active upper level pattern, especially across the Bering Straight.  That pattern will cause the jetstream to "buckle" across western Kansas and will be tappng into really chilly (no - cold) air. Then as the pattern continues to amplify, the cold will spill into the high plains, especially next week.  Lows will most certainly fall well into the 20s across most areas.  Precipitation should form across the higher terrain and then spread a bit into the high plains.  Looking at the Weather Predication Center expected precipitation through next Thursday, what you see inside the black dashed line will be frozen, i.e., snow.  Yes - winter will make an appearance.  

If you will be having pivot sprinklers full of water prior to the arrival of the cold, just keep in mind that the air temperatures will likely fall to well below freezing next week.  I might try and update early next week if I can get a few minutes free. 

The new pattern is forming!

 Because of personal obligations I haven't had a chance to update in a couple of weeks.  In the last posting (read it by clicking here), I was discussing the upcoming stormy period that was somewhat expected for the end of September.  That would have been part of the "old" weather pattern that began forming during the fall of 2020.  The outlook for rainfall was robust with 2 separate systems expected.  Here is what round 1 produced...

And here is what round 12 produced....

The 2 event total amount was this....

In that previous posting I said "After that storm departs, it appears that it will be primarily dry for about a week.".   It all pretty much fell into place as it was dry for about 10 days.

The latest storm systems on Monday and Tuesday produced this....

Also in the previous posting I discussed several opportunities for some frost or near freezing temperatures.  I was off by a day.  Instead of the 10th (and I picked that date over a month ago), the cold settled in on the morning of the 11th with several areas of west central and northwest Kansas sinking into the lower 30s.  It wasn't season ending (as expected), but it was the first taste of "cold" morning lows. 

Now it is looking like the next "cold" and actually the coldest of the fall so far will occur Saturday morning.  Looking at the jetstream map....

First, the red L near the Canadian border is what brought the severe weather late Tuesday and Tuesday night.  The red X across Wyoming won't bring much in the way of precipitation since the atmosphere has been scoured out by the stronger system that is now way north.  But the once this Wyoming system departs, cold air will spill south into the plains.  Moring lows Saturday morning across many areas of the high plains will probably slip into the mid to upper 20s with 30s elsewhere.  So, many locations will likely see a growing season ending freeze.

Looking into the future...

As many of you are aware (at least those that have been following for a long time), the new weather pattern is currently setting up.  The two events this past week are part of this new pattern.  What happened Monday and Tuesday will be important systems to watch going forward.  The late fall and winter version may not even impact the high plains directly but will produce interesting weather close by...or yes it could impact the high plains plains.  More on that down the road.  What will be concerning is the return during the spring.  Just this simple development this week will lead to confidence that next spring the tornado count across Kansas (and possibly the high plains will be MUCH higher than the last two years).  I have a bad gut feeling that next spring we'll be dealing with an above normal tornado count.

So, again the pattern is in the process of forming.  There are several systems across the Pacific that may bring a few chances of precipitation later next week.  Details this far out are impossible and honestly trying to tie anything down that would impact the high plains really shouldn't be discussed.  

Here is the precipitation outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through next Thursday...

However, it is a real possibility that we may go into an extended dry period going into November.  I just don't have much confidence either way.   But during this next 2-4 weeks this new weather pattern will be showing more of itself.