Because of personal obligations I haven't had a chance to update in a couple of weeks. In the last posting (read it by clicking here), I was discussing the upcoming stormy period that was somewhat expected for the end of September. That would have been part of the "old" weather pattern that began forming during the fall of 2020. The outlook for rainfall was robust with 2 separate systems expected. Here is what round 1 produced...
And here is what round 12 produced....
The 2 event total amount was this....
In that previous posting I said "After that storm departs, it appears that it will be primarily dry for about a week.". It all pretty much fell into place as it was dry for about 10 days.
The latest storm systems on Monday and Tuesday produced this....
Also in the previous posting I discussed several opportunities for some frost or near freezing temperatures. I was off by a day. Instead of the 10th (and I picked that date over a month ago), the cold settled in on the morning of the 11th with several areas of west central and northwest Kansas sinking into the lower 30s. It wasn't season ending (as expected), but it was the first taste of "cold" morning lows.
Now it is looking like the next "cold" and actually the coldest of the fall so far will occur Saturday morning. Looking at the jetstream map....
First, the red L near the Canadian border is what brought the severe weather late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The red X across Wyoming won't bring much in the way of precipitation since the atmosphere has been scoured out by the stronger system that is now way north. But the once this Wyoming system departs, cold air will spill south into the plains. Moring lows Saturday morning across many areas of the high plains will probably slip into the mid to upper 20s with 30s elsewhere. So, many locations will likely see a growing season ending freeze.
Looking into the future...
As many of you are aware (at least those that have been following for a long time), the new weather pattern is currently setting up. The two events this past week are part of this new pattern. What happened Monday and Tuesday will be important systems to watch going forward. The late fall and winter version may not even impact the high plains directly but will produce interesting weather close by...or yes it could impact the high plains plains. More on that down the road. What will be concerning is the return during the spring. Just this simple development this week will lead to confidence that next spring the tornado count across Kansas (and possibly the high plains will be MUCH higher than the last two years). I have a bad gut feeling that next spring we'll be dealing with an above normal tornado count.
So, again the pattern is in the process of forming. There are several systems across the Pacific that may bring a few chances of precipitation later next week. Details this far out are impossible and honestly trying to tie anything down that would impact the high plains really shouldn't be discussed.
Here is the precipitation outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through next Thursday...
However, it is a real possibility that we may go into an extended dry period going into November. I just don't have much confidence either way. But during this next 2-4 weeks this new weather pattern will be showing more of itself.
No comments:
Post a Comment