Desperate weather conditions for the high plains - but is there a glimmer of hope?

 In the previous post (click here) done on the 4th, the title was "Not much evidence to change the outlook going into May".  Unfortunately that still holds true.  I ended that writing with 

"It's bad and likely to get worse before there is a slight bit of hope in May.  That outlook I made back in February for May stands (very warm and likely below normal precipitation).  I'm not that optimistic but I do think there is a little bit of hope for May as Gulf of Mexico moisture becomes more prevelent.  Unfortunately early indications are for a hot and dry early start to summer."

I  don't have any reason to change that thinking...even including the statement of a "little bit of hope for May".  But, can the winter wheat (especially our western areas) hold on for another couple of weeks?

Looking at this mornings upper air chart....

The X across the eastern Pacific west of California will race across the central U.S. late Saturday night and into Easter Sunday.  Unfortunately it will only benefit eastern Kansas and Oklahoma and boundary layer moisture will be lacking - AGAIN!  That has been a theme all winter and early spring.  The high plains gets the wind (and dirt) although this weekends system won't produce the wind like we've had.  Maybe that is a sign of a temporary break?.  After that weekend system, there appears to be two or three systems, albeit at least the first two will be weak.  You guessed it - favoring areas east of the high plains (mostly).  But towards the weekend (23-24)?  That storm is looking interesting as it may be slow enough initially to allow gulf of Mexico moisture to creep into the high plains.  But there is great uncertainty as the potential system is just a disturbance that is WAY out across the Pacific, 1000's of miles away (not even on the map above)  Fingers crossed! 

In almost all of the posts I have done for 2022 so far, on February 11th I said....

"BTW, the period of March 3-10 has my attention and then again around April 20th (give or take a day or two) appears to be a period we should be concerned about.  By that time, any potential storm system of significance could bring a wide variety of weather to the central U.S., including severe convective weather, a nasty dust storm, or even an April blizzard.  Just a date to put on your calendar. "

The April 20th potential period (give or take a two - see above) that we should be concerned about?  Somehow word has been spreading that I predicted that chaos would ensue - on exactly the 20th.  It gets around - and back to me from someone that didn't even know about this blog. Ha!  After I did some reanalysis, the period is about 4 days long or from April 20th through the 24th.  Although I do see a potential system on "exactly" the 20th, it may be relatively weak and favoring areas east of the high plains (wow a broken record).  But the system I mentioned that could be in the vicinity of this next weekend?  That could be the one that could bring that variety of weather (again re-read the quote in blue).  Lordy I'm just hoping for some widespread decent moisture.

About a late freeze.  Yesterday morning low temperatures got a little out of hand behind that monster blizzard that hammered the northern plains.  Here are lows from the Kansas State Mesonet.

I don't think we're done with freezing temperatures yet.  I see a potential of some colder weather the last few days of April and into early May that could potentially bring a frost or a freeze.  More on that later.

Not much evidence to change the outlook going into May

 First a discussion about last week.  In the previous update on the 25th (read it here) I discussed 2 possible systems last week, one for early in the week that I was afraid would be too far north and east and to "fast" to bring much to the high plains.  That verified.  The second system was expected by the end of the week.  Out of the two, I sure was hoping that at least the last one would benefit the region; but I had my doubts.  However, and what has been typical, there was a lack of moisture to feed that system that came through Friday (1st).  At least there was some decent moisture for much of the Texas Panhandle.  Had a typical (normal for early April) amount of boundary layer moisture been present, then there would have been widespread showers and thunderstorms across much of the high plains.  The moisture availability for weather systems has been an issue for months.  I see no change in the immediate future.

Here is a map of precipitation that fell during this past week.

Back on February 24, I gave this outlook in that update:

Overall I think March will average out to be above normal on temperatures and probably below normal on precipitation (despite the chance for early March).

April - likely below normal precipitation and near to below normal temperatures.

May - Very warm and likely below normal precipitation, except that with luck on timing of systems, the precipitation outlook for May could be closer to normal or even above.  There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty.  Fingers crossed for sure.

March - precipitation did end up below normal...

As for temperatures - I was WAY off as the average March temperature was 2 to 3 degrees below normal thanks in part to several cold stretches.

April - Obviously the month just started but based on the trend of weather systems and lack of available gulf of Mexico moisture for the high plains I see no reason to change that outlook on precipitation.  However, I might be inclined to bump the temperature outlook up to normal.  I think there will be enough cold periods to mitigate the warm stretches but the entire month should average out closer to normal. 

The wind that has been an issue this past month will likely continue throughout April.   At Dodge City, there were six days of 50 MPH winds or greater during March.  This is the most for March since at least 1992.  Unfortunately fire weather conditions in March were prevelent and I'm afraid that will continue for much of April although there will start to be some green-up.

In that previous blog posting, I had mentioned April 7th-10th as the next chance for hope of a weather system.  It is showing up on forecast models (a little slower) but as has been the case recently, I think it will likely come in too fast and too far north and east to benefit the high plains.  And, unfortunately, there will likely be a lot of wind and dry air with that one too.

It's bad and likely to get worse before there is a slight bit of hope in May.  That outlook I made back in February for May stands (very warm and likely below normal precipitation).  I'm not that optimistic but I do think there is a little bit of hope for May as Gulf of Mexico moisture becomes more prevelent.  Unfortunately early indications are for a hot and dry early start to summer.