First a discussion about last week. In the previous update on the 25th (read it here) I discussed 2 possible systems last week, one for early in the week that I was afraid would be too far north and east and to "fast" to bring much to the high plains. That verified. The second system was expected by the end of the week. Out of the two, I sure was hoping that at least the last one would benefit the region; but I had my doubts. However, and what has been typical, there was a lack of moisture to feed that system that came through Friday (1st). At least there was some decent moisture for much of the Texas Panhandle. Had a typical (normal for early April) amount of boundary layer moisture been present, then there would have been widespread showers and thunderstorms across much of the high plains. The moisture availability for weather systems has been an issue for months. I see no change in the immediate future.
Here is a map of precipitation that fell during this past week.
Back on February 24, I gave this outlook in that update:
Overall I think March will average out to be above normal on temperatures and probably below normal on precipitation (despite the chance for early March).
April - likely below normal precipitation and near to below normal temperatures.
May - Very warm and likely below normal precipitation, except that with luck on timing of systems, the precipitation outlook for May could be closer to normal or even above. There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty. Fingers crossed for sure.
March - precipitation did end up below normal...
As for temperatures - I was WAY off as the average March temperature was 2 to 3 degrees below normal thanks in part to several cold stretches.
April - Obviously the month just started but based on the trend of weather systems and lack of available gulf of Mexico moisture for the high plains I see no reason to change that outlook on precipitation. However, I might be inclined to bump the temperature outlook up to normal. I think there will be enough cold periods to mitigate the warm stretches but the entire month should average out closer to normal.
The wind that has been an issue this past month will likely continue throughout April. At Dodge City, there were six days of 50 MPH winds or greater during March. This is the most for March since at least 1992. Unfortunately fire weather conditions in March were prevelent and I'm afraid that will continue for much of April although there will start to be some green-up.
In that previous blog posting, I had mentioned April 7th-10th as the next chance for hope of a weather system. It is showing up on forecast models (a little slower) but as has been the case recently, I think it will likely come in too fast and too far north and east to benefit the high plains. And, unfortunately, there will likely be a lot of wind and dry air with that one too.
It's bad and likely to get worse before there is a slight bit of hope in May. That outlook I made back in February for May stands (very warm and likely below normal precipitation). I'm not that optimistic but I do think there is a little bit of hope for May as Gulf of Mexico moisture becomes more prevelent. Unfortunately early indications are for a hot and dry early start to summer.
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