Getting near the transition into the "new" weather pattern

This summer has been a blessing for just part of the high plains, while other surrounding locations did not benefit much from the favorable rainfall pattern.  In fact, since May 20 many areas are hurting severely for some beneficial rains.  Here is a look at rainfall and percent of normal rainfall...

In my weekly reports to subscribers of Hutton Weather Futures, I had been addressing the concerns going into the growing season about the dryness that was likely to develop during the summer.  

However, what was somewhat unexpected is the couple of "wet" storm systems that brought very good rains (and to an extent excessive rain) to parts of the high plains.  It seems that those that were above average were the "target" for many storms while the dry areas just couldn't catch a break.

The concern for much of the area going into fall planting later in September is the dryness that could expand.  As of mid-August the trend was not looking good for September going into October.  But, we are nearing the time of a pattern change.  That is, as the northern hemisphere upper flow begins to strengthen due to the change in seasons, a new pattern will emerge (typically early October).  There are already many "forecasts" for the fall and winter on the web and these tend to be based strictly on the existence of La Nina (that has yet to exist).  I've shown many times that for the central U.S. that fall, and especially winter, have a wide range of outcomes in terms of temperatures and rainfall.  Once this new pattern develops, customers of Hutton Weather Futures will have the first glimpse of what to expect this winter, and next spring and summer. Detailed forecast charts showing increased or decreased odds of precipitation and temperature trends will be made available. 

Finally, in last week’s report I mentioned data across the higher latitudes of north America that “could” have a profound impact on the weather later this fall and winter.  Here is what I’m looking at…

 

Learn more about the weekly weather outlooks and long-range forecasts that customers of Hutton Weather Futures receive to help in planning purposes.  http://huttonweatherfutures.com or you can or email for details at: jeff@huttonweatherfutures.com

Beneficial Rains becoming likely!

It's been quite a while since widespread rains have benefited much of the high plains.  This spring the weather systems have either been too fast (bad timing), air aloft has been too warm, or simply there hasn't been enough boundary layer moisture.  Since it's getting later into the spring, boundary layer moisture will become more abundant.  Plus, at least for this next few weeks, systems will be slower to move across the plains and the associated Elevated Mixed Layer (EML or warm air aloft) will not be quite as pronounced.  The result will be increasing amounts of rainfall and should cover a larger area geographically.  Here is a look at how much the Weather Prediction Center is forecasting through next Friday the 17th.

The very long term outlooks provided by Hutton Weather Futures (HWF) have been consistently accurate.  This period coming up for mid-May was expected to have much better odds of having beneficial rain (outlook was made in December) and it appears that is in the offing. Clients of HWF have the benefit of being able to plan ahead for various operations such as applying herbicides earlier/later, planting earlier/later, seed population, etc., etc..  There has been great success!

For more detail, consider joining the growing number of crop and livestock producers and businesses that have subscribed to Hutton Weather Futures to receive weekly detailed reports!

To subscribe for these weekly reports or to learn more, go to https://huttonweatherfutures.com/ or you can email for details at: jeff@huttonweatherfutures.com. 

Rapid changes taking place across the Equatorial Pacific

The well advertised transition from El Nino into a probable La Nina has taking place rapidly early this spring.   For some time, buoys across the Pacific have show much below normal water temperatures below the surface of the ocean, stretching from South America all the way to the Maritime Continents.  Upwelling has been ongoing and "suddenly" water temperatures below normal have been observed at the surface near South America.  

This rapid transition does not guarantee that we'll be seeing a La Nina later this year and going into 2025, but forecast model agreement certainly points in that direction.

How will this development impact the weather pattern across the High Plains?  The pattern has been setup for some time - that is, it's active but yet weather system behavior has been somewhat erratic for the plains.   The outlook through the summer has been generated, including precipitation chances and temperature trends.  I have identified 4 specific periods this spring and summer where an extended period of excessive heat is expected.  But with that, there are several periods of opportunity for rainfall later this spring that may mitigate some of the heat, at least initially in the growing season.  For more detail, consider joining the growing number of  crop and livestock producers and businesses that have subscribed to Hutton Weather Futures to receive weekly detailed outlook reports. 

To subscribe for weekly reports or to learn more, go to https://huttonweatherfutures.com/ or you can email for details at: jeff@huttonweatherfutures.com. 

Winter makes an appearance after all!

December was unusually "mild" comparatively speaking despite there being signs of cold across the northern hemisphere.  Often, in winter, Arctic cold will dislodge to towards the equator but is confined to the "other side" of the hemisphere, across Europe and Siberia.  Such was the case early this winter.  But, if you recall there was a pretty decent outbreak of cold into the central U.S. back in October.  Specifically the last 4 or 5 days in October and into November when daily average temperatures were 15 to 25 below normal.  It was only a matter of time before the atmosphere aligned to bring the true Arctic air into the central U.S..

Low temperatures across Kansas during the outbreak reached at least -22 F (air temperature, not wind chill).  

Low temperatures - January 16, 2024  per the Kansas State Mesonet observational network

At least 5 to 10 degree air made it into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and into northern Oklahoma.  In Nebraska where a deep snowpack built up, readings were far colder!

The atmosphere is now transitioning back into a "warmer" one although snowpack across northern Kansas into Nebraska will hold the warming at bay.  The storms in December and so far in January behaved about as expected based on the outlook provided by Hutton Weather Futures, LLC.  Going forward there will likely be two impactful storms in February with minor occurrences on the table also for the central part of the country. March weather could get wild!

Subscribers to Hutton Weather Futures get weekly detailed outlook reports that highlight impactful periods going all the way through the growing season. Information is made available to help you make the best decision you can in planning for the upcoming growing and livestock season.  To subscribe for weekly reports or to learn more, go to https://huttonweatherfutures.com/