Friday, September 23, 2022

Transition Time

The title of this post - "Transition Time".  Not only for the weather but for me personally.  As many of you know I'll be retiring at the end of the year from my agency.  On top of that, I'm moving at the end of this month to Kingman (KS).  It's a hectic time so this post will be very short.  Plus, changes will be coming to this blog by the end of the year.  More on that later...

In the last posting on the 12th (read it here) I began the process discussing global influences that might hurt (or help) the situation for the next 10-12 months, weather-wise.  Remember, September is the transition time between the old and new patterns.  I'll be discussing the new pattern whenever I get a chance later in October.

The cold front (finally a real one to knock back the heat), was probably related to the old pattern but the couple of rainfall events?  Maybe old, maybe new or maybe just a combination of the two.  While it was nice (for most of us), don't be led into a false sense that it might occur again anytime soon.  I mean it is a possibility, but we can only hope and pray.  But the new pattern that is setting up hasn't shown any teeth yet.  Fingers crossed.

For the past 72 hours, here is a map of rainfall.  Some areas got a pretty good soaking!  If only it impacted everyone. (click for a larger version)

Again, I'm moving very soon so I won't have any opportunity to update, at least for another couple of weeks.  See ya on the flip side!

Monday, September 12, 2022

The bleak outlook continues

At least a "few" areas got some rain with the colder airmass this past weekend but even those that got rainfall, most locations got less than a quarter of an inch, or less.  That system producing the rain benefited areas farther northeast, which may an indication of the "new" pattern that is weeks away from setting in motion.  Here is the broad and close up look at what fell...

In the posting I did on August 16, I said "a possibility of a decent front centered around September 6 and maybe that could bring some rain that would be key for fall planting later in the month."

I missed that one by 3-4 days.  It's most unfortunate that rainfall wasn't widespread and amounts were likely to little to benefit the fall planting.

As mentioned in the posting I did on the 1st (read it by clicking here), September is a transition month from the old to the new pattern that develops during the fall.  Predictability really goes in the toilet.  At this point I can only go off of some of the computer models.  This week will become brutal with a lot of wind and increasing temperatures.  By the weekend we could even be flirting with 100 again!  The key to this week will be warm air aloft.  If it doesn't get too warm aloft, then there should be a few days later in the week when there should be at least scattered thunderstorm activity.  Again, unfortunately, any activity will likely be scattered in nature, but least I'm hoping for something.  IF I can use some of the knobology from the waning pattern than started last fall, there should be another significant cool down later next week, say between the 20th-23rd.    Maybe another shot of rainfall then too?

I'm sure most of you have seen various "forecasts" for the winter.  Caution....much of what you see is not based on weather science.  There is one map in particular that was first posted 5 years ago and has shown up on social media every year since - the EXACT SAME MAP!   Predicting what this winter will be like is nothing more than a guess and a wild one at that.  Predictability is ZERO as the new pattern has not set up yet. 

Some are making the prediction off of the notion that a third La Nina in a row will exist.  And yes, this will be a triple dip (3rd La Nina winter in a row).  However, if looking for a predictable weather solution solely off the existence of another La Nina for the high plains - nope.  All La Nina events (and El Nino for that matter) have a different outcome for the plains.  But, what if....what if we could predict based on the existence of another third La Nina?

I can find 2 back-to-back La Nina events during the past 50 years.  1973-1976 and 1998-2001.  The sensible weather for the plains was NOT the same during both events!  But taking into account the last year of the two (1976 and 2001), the fall (Sep-Nov) across the high plains was colder than average with near normal precipitation.  So, could that same thing happen this fall?  I suppose so but at the current time all long range computer forecast models are indicating warm and dry into November.  I certainly hope not.  

I'll try and update again early next week sometime.  Let's hope and pray for something later week.

Thursday, September 1, 2022

Again? Hit and miss rains!

 It seems to be a common theme this warm season.  There have been locations that have received decent rains while others are missing out completely.  It happened again.

In the previous posting I did on the 19th of August, a carry over period of opportunity that I started discussing back in June mentioned the last of August.  That opportunity definately benefited some across the region.  Here is the rainfall that fell this past 72 hours ending this morning 9/1....

There were 2 events covering this precipitation.

Prior to that from last week into the is the 72 hour map ending 8/29

Back to the post on the 19th, there was quite robust outlook for rainfall across Oklahoma and Texas.  This also verified (I'm sure many heard about the flooding in the Dallas area) but the spatial area impacted was perhaps a little less and it was a little farther south.  

We are now getting to the time of year that the old pattern that developed last fall is nearing a completion while the next pattern that will be developing this next  month.  It's going to be really tough giving you any indication of what to expect going into October.  All the longrange forecast models I've looked at are indicating a warm and dry September and likely a warm and dry October.  There is simply NO skill in forecasting for October at this point since the new pattern will be emerging then and it's impossible to predict what that will be. I do see a few opportunities for rainfall....fist tomorrow into early Saturday and then perhaps towards the following weekend, September 16-18.  Skill on those predictions is decreasing rapidly.  In the meantime, here is the outlook through next Thursday the 8th.

I'll attempt to update late next week.