It seems to be a common theme this warm season. There have been locations that have received decent rains while others are missing out completely. It happened again.
In the previous posting I did on the 19th of August, a carry over period of opportunity that I started discussing back in June mentioned the last of August. That opportunity definately benefited some across the region. Here is the rainfall that fell this past 72 hours ending this morning 9/1....
There were 2 events covering this precipitation.
Prior to that from last week into the weekend...here is the 72 hour map ending 8/29
Back to the post on the 19th, there was quite robust outlook for rainfall across Oklahoma and Texas. This also verified (I'm sure many heard about the flooding in the Dallas area) but the spatial area impacted was perhaps a little less and it was a little farther south.
We are now getting to the time of year that the old pattern that developed last fall is nearing a completion while the next pattern that will be developing this next month. It's going to be really tough giving you any indication of what to expect going into October. All the longrange forecast models I've looked at are indicating a warm and dry September and likely a warm and dry October. There is simply NO skill in forecasting for October at this point since the new pattern will be emerging then and it's impossible to predict what that will be. I do see a few opportunities for rainfall....fist tomorrow into early Saturday and then perhaps towards the following weekend, September 16-18. Skill on those predictions is decreasing rapidly. In the meantime, here is the outlook through next Thursday the 8th.
I'll attempt to update late next week.
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