The bleak outlook continues

At least a "few" areas got some rain with the colder airmass this past weekend but even those that got rainfall, most locations got less than a quarter of an inch, or less.  That system producing the rain benefited areas farther northeast, which may an indication of the "new" pattern that is weeks away from setting in motion.  Here is the broad and close up look at what fell...

In the posting I did on August 16, I said "a possibility of a decent front centered around September 6 and maybe that could bring some rain that would be key for fall planting later in the month."

I missed that one by 3-4 days.  It's most unfortunate that rainfall wasn't widespread and amounts were likely to little to benefit the fall planting.

As mentioned in the posting I did on the 1st (read it by clicking here), September is a transition month from the old to the new pattern that develops during the fall.  Predictability really goes in the toilet.  At this point I can only go off of some of the computer models.  This week will become brutal with a lot of wind and increasing temperatures.  By the weekend we could even be flirting with 100 again!  The key to this week will be warm air aloft.  If it doesn't get too warm aloft, then there should be a few days later in the week when there should be at least scattered thunderstorm activity.  Again, unfortunately, any activity will likely be scattered in nature, but least I'm hoping for something.  IF I can use some of the knobology from the waning pattern than started last fall, there should be another significant cool down later next week, say between the 20th-23rd.    Maybe another shot of rainfall then too?

I'm sure most of you have seen various "forecasts" for the winter.  Caution....much of what you see is not based on weather science.  There is one map in particular that was first posted 5 years ago and has shown up on social media every year since - the EXACT SAME MAP!   Predicting what this winter will be like is nothing more than a guess and a wild one at that.  Predictability is ZERO as the new pattern has not set up yet. 

Some are making the prediction off of the notion that a third La Nina in a row will exist.  And yes, this will be a triple dip (3rd La Nina winter in a row).  However, if looking for a predictable weather solution solely off the existence of another La Nina for the high plains - nope.  All La Nina events (and El Nino for that matter) have a different outcome for the plains.  But, what if....what if we could predict based on the existence of another third La Nina?

I can find 2 back-to-back La Nina events during the past 50 years.  1973-1976 and 1998-2001.  The sensible weather for the plains was NOT the same during both events!  But taking into account the last year of the two (1976 and 2001), the fall (Sep-Nov) across the high plains was colder than average with near normal precipitation.  So, could that same thing happen this fall?  I suppose so but at the current time all long range computer forecast models are indicating warm and dry into November.  I certainly hope not.  

I'll try and update again early next week sometime.  Let's hope and pray for something later week.