Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Quick Update - 09/26/17

Just a quick update.  In the post I did on the 22nd I mentioned the "storm" we just experienced across Kansas.  This is what I said "A few unlucky locations across the high plains will get less than 1/2 of an inch of rain through Monday.  But, some locations will get more than 3 inches through Monday!  It all depends on individual storms and their locations." Well it looks like a few areas "only" got 3/4 to 1 inch but for the most part it was a widespread 1 to 3 inch rain event!  There were quite a few locations that got more than 4 inches.  There were a few 5 to 6 inch reports near Preston and Pratt county.  Here is the map of the 3 day accumulated rainfall (click for a larger version if you want):

The heavier rains will shift into west Texas for the remainder of the week as another system approaches.  Even New Mexico and southern Colorado should benefit. There is a small chance the system gets close enough to Kansas to bring rains back into western Kansas. 

Here is the latest outlook through early next week from the Weather Prediction Center:

Temperatures will remain on the cool side into the weekend.

I'll try and update again next week.

Friday, September 22, 2017

Update on 9/22/17

So far for September it has been very dry for most areas and unfortunately hot and windy at times.  Because of those conditions, the developing drought has expanded. Here is the latest drought monitor map
In the previous post I did on the 7th (read it by clicking here) I mentioned small opportunities for rain around mid-month and there was at least scattered thunderstorms then.  Some locations got a pretty good amount of rain, but most got very little or nothing.

I also mentioned that there were tiny indications for something towards the last week of the month.  That time is now and it "looks" like many areas will benefit.

Here is the latest satellite image....

This appears to be somewhat of a developing pattern as winds aloft begin a slow increase in magnitude.  Every fall a new weather pattern will develop across the northern hemisphere, sometime after the fall equinox.  Once it gets established and set, the pattern will begin an oscillation in time and space and often repeats at a specific frequencies (most often from 40 to 60 days).  That frequency will be unknown until November and maybe even December.

Regardless, this first change in the atmospheric flow will bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.  Here is the latest outlook from the Weather Prediction Center....

Don't concentrate on only the amounts or the locations of minimum and maximum amounts.  This is just a general idea of how much rain might fall.  A few unlucky locations across the high plains will get less than 1/2 of an inch of rain through Monday.  But, some locations will get more than 3 inches through Monday!  It all depends on individual storms and their locations.  Through the end of next week it appears parts of west, central and southwest Texas will get deluged!

Even though there will finally be a break in the very warm temperatures starting this weekend, a killing freeze is not showing up.  I still feel the first one will at or after the average date.  Meaning at least mid/late October.  Remember though, the NEW pattern is setting up so there is still some uncertainty.

I will go into an outlook in the next post, but unfortunately I won't have  chance to do that until the first week of October (most likely).

Thursday, September 7, 2017

Update 09/07/17

Obviously the biggest news is the eventual impacts on the southeast U.S. from Hurricane Irma.  For the High Plains (which this blog is about) - nothing from Irma (weather wise).  I do feel  there could be impacts economically from the ripple effect since there WILL be devastation on the mainland.  Just don't know exactly where yet.  Anyway....

In the previous post I did on the 29th (read it by clicking here) I discussed the dramatic change in the pattern across the plains.  There was a weak storm system on the 1st that did bring some beneficial rain to areas of western Kansas.  But the majority received nothing or very little.  Here is the latest drought monitor: (click for a larger version)

As you can see, dry areas have been increasingly getting drier.  Not a good trend.  At this point I don't see much change through at least September 15, although there will still be a few small chances for widely scattered thunderstorms during that period.  There are some tiny indications of a deep system moving into the Rockies mid-September but that would "probably" benefit the northern areas of the high plains.  Don't count on it.  There is also very tiny indications of a few better opportunities towards the last week of September.  Again, don't count on it.  Overall it's looking like September will be drier than average for MOST of the area.  

I'll have to post on the summer precipitation in the next blog entry (around the 18th/19th).