Update on 9/22/17

So far for September it has been very dry for most areas and unfortunately hot and windy at times.  Because of those conditions, the developing drought has expanded. Here is the latest drought monitor map

In the previous post I did on the 7th (read it by clicking here) I mentioned small opportunities for rain around mid-month and there was at least scattered thunderstorms then.  Some locations got a pretty good amount of rain, but most got very little or nothing.

 
I also mentioned that there were tiny indications for something towards the last week of the month.  That time is now and it "looks" like many areas will benefit.

Here is the latest satellite image....

This appears to be somewhat of a developing pattern as winds aloft begin a slow increase in magnitude.  Every fall a new weather pattern will develop across the northern hemisphere, sometime after the fall equinox.  Once it gets established and set, the pattern will begin an oscillation in time and space and often repeats at a specific frequencies (most often from 40 to 60 days).  That frequency will be unknown until November and maybe even December.

Regardless, this first change in the atmospheric flow will bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.  Here is the latest outlook from the Weather Prediction Center....

Don't concentrate on only the amounts or the locations of minimum and maximum amounts.  This is just a general idea of how much rain might fall.  A few unlucky locations across the high plains will get less than 1/2 of an inch of rain through Monday.  But, some locations will get more than 3 inches through Monday!  It all depends on individual storms and their locations.  Through the end of next week it appears parts of west, central and southwest Texas will get deluged!

Even though there will finally be a break in the very warm temperatures starting this weekend, a killing freeze is not showing up.  I still feel the first one will at or after the average date.  Meaning at least mid/late October.  Remember though, the NEW pattern is setting up so there is still some uncertainty.

I will go into an outlook in the next post, but unfortunately I won't have  chance to do that until the first week of October (most likely).