If you didn't have a chance, please read the post I did on the 22nd. Click here.
Thursday, October 29, 2020
Thursday, October 22, 2020
If you haven't had a chance to view the previous post, please read it by clicking here.
There still hasn't been much to discuss as far as the outlook through the winter and into the spring. Yes, there are major changes occurring with the short term weather. But what about that outlook?
First this shot of cold air coming in waves (today into Friday and Sunday into Tuesday) will bring an end to the growing season for most vegetation (if it hasn't already due to the drought). It's not unusual for what we will be experiencing tonight and Friday and into Saturday morning as temperatures will be fall into the 20s. But the shot of cold late Sunday into Tuesday is touching on unseasonably cold. Not a record, but pretty dang cold. Those with pivots running should be prepared as temperatures Monday will likely not get above freezing and lows Tuesday morning will fall into well into the teens at most locations. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few single digit readings across eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas.
As far as precipitation, there will likely be some, especially Monday and Monday night but it really doesn't look that significant.
Attention turns to what could occur by mid-week. There are several upper level storms lined up from northwest to southeast. Look at the map:
The X with the superscript 2 is what I'm watching carefully (plus the upper level low - the red L - across the Pacific. This just might be a clue for part of the weather pattern this winter and into next spring.
Will that storm (X2) follow X1 (red dashed line)? If so then it won't bring much, if any, precipitation to the central plains. But....will it amplify and follow the blue line track? This would occur in concert with a building ridge (the blue zig-zag) across the eastern Pacific because of the upper low. That would mean a more favorable storm track and possible significant precipitation event for the central U.S. by mid-week. This would also be a part of the pattern that would repeat at some frequency during the winter and spring.
BUT....if there is no linking between the upper low (building ridge) and the developing storm, then it would likely move faster and farther north limiting the extent of precipitation for at least the high plains. If that occurs, the confidence increases of this terribly dry weather continuing going into winter and into next spring. I'm not saying NO rain or snow this winter, but rather odds would continue to favor below normal amounts.
I'll try and update in about a week.
Thursday, October 8, 2020
As many of you know from what I've discussed a million times, the "new" weather pattern starts to develop during the early fall, specifically around the first week of October. Since that weather regime is just now getting started, there really isn't much to contribute to this posting that is different from the post I did on September 24 or prior on September 15. I have had concerns during the past 1 to 1 1/2 years of significant dryness returning, which obviously it has. The question is how bad (what magnitude) and how long it will last.
Here is the latest drought map....and this should be alarming to many folks....
The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is pretty dang pessimistic through the end of the year.
Again, the pattern is just now getting established so I'm not ready to throw in the towel all together. But, again it's been expected to turn significantly drier. Look at the anomaly of precipitation from May 2018 through April of 2019. When it's THAT wet, the pendulum will swing back the other way. We just hope not to extreme levels. Could this be another 2011 coming up? Again, without the new pattern being fully established, it's pretty hard to say. I wouldn't discount it completely, although it's not likely to those levels.
Here is that map from May 2018 through April of last year....just as a comparison of where we were then and were we are now. BTW, that was the wettest 12 month period on record (nationwide)...
As far as the balance of October, many of the long range computer models have absolutely nothing! That is NO moisture through October 31! On the other hand, there are a couple of computer models that have a shot of significant precipitation in about a week. It really is going to depend on amplification of weak weather systems coming out of the Pacific Northwest. There is just a VERY slight indicator that it could happen. The dry outlook for the next 10-15 days is much more likely than wet. If there does happen to be amplification of the jetstream during the next week and we get moisture, that will be just one of the clues to the upcoming pattern. We better hope for that amplification!
BTW, the hurricane will not help for the high plains.
From the Weather Prediction Center into next Thursday the 15th...