As many of you know from what I've discussed a million times, the "new" weather pattern starts to develop during the early fall, specifically around the first week of October. Since that weather regime is just now getting started, there really isn't much to contribute to this posting that is different from the post I did on September 24 or prior on September 15. I have had concerns during the past 1 to 1 1/2 years of significant dryness returning, which obviously it has. The question is how bad (what magnitude) and how long it will last.
Here is the latest drought map....and this should be alarming to many folks....
The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is pretty dang pessimistic through the end of the year.
Again, the pattern is just now getting established so I'm not ready to throw in the towel all together. But, again it's been expected to turn significantly drier. Look at the anomaly of precipitation from May 2018 through April of 2019. When it's THAT wet, the pendulum will swing back the other way. We just hope not to extreme levels. Could this be another 2011 coming up? Again, without the new pattern being fully established, it's pretty hard to say. I wouldn't discount it completely, although it's not likely to those levels.
Here is that map from May 2018 through April of last year....just as a comparison of where we were then and were we are now. BTW, that was the wettest 12 month period on record (nationwide)...
As far as the balance of October, many of the long range computer models have absolutely nothing! That is NO moisture through October 31! On the other hand, there are a couple of computer models that have a shot of significant precipitation in about a week. It really is going to depend on amplification of weak weather systems coming out of the Pacific Northwest. There is just a VERY slight indicator that it could happen. The dry outlook for the next 10-15 days is much more likely than wet. If there does happen to be amplification of the jetstream during the next week and we get moisture, that will be just one of the clues to the upcoming pattern. We better hope for that amplification!
BTW, the hurricane will not help for the high plains.
From the Weather Prediction Center into next Thursday the 15th...
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