Friday, May 20, 2016

Update 05/20/2016 - Active period coming up

In the previous post I did last Friday (read it by clicking here), I discussed the wet and cool period that was expected.   The following map shows the estimated rainfall across the region...(click for a larger map).

There was very generous amounts across a large area.  But there were also areas that did not receive much at all, which is very disappointing (and I hope it's not a trend).

In the last post I also discussed that soil temperatures would likely tumble.  I only have Dodge City as an example, but indeed there was quite a drop.  At 2 inches the temperature varies quite a bit from day-to-day anyway.  But, there was a decrease from a high of 70 degrees to a low of 52.  At the 4 inch depth, the variance went from 67 degrees down to 53.  Also, because of the cloud cover, cold airmass and some precipitation recently, the average temperature during the past 23 days has also plummeted.  At the Dodge City airport, the period from April 27th through May 19th tied as the third coldest  on record.  That is pretty significant.  (click for a large version)

 Now attention turns to a developing May pattern that will likely produce an extended period of daily severe weather.  Initially this weekend the threat will be limited in width (but stretch quite a bit north and south - see the graphic).

For Saturday (approximate location of the greatest threat)

For Sunday (approximate location of the greatest threat)

Monday through Friday the threat will shift east quite a bit.  As far as rainfall, the western fringes will have to battle dry air coming off the higher elevations.  Thus, the following graphic from WPC....

If this rainfall prediction for the next week verifies, there will be parts of the far western high plains that will not have received much rainfall for May.  Thus, we might start showing signs of drying out. I still am optimistic for at least June and into July, as far as rainfall possibilities and limiting the scorching windy heat.  More on that later....

Friday, May 13, 2016

Update 05/13/16

In the previous post I did on April 29 (read it here), much of the plains had just experienced one of the wettest Aprils on record (some locations smashed the previous record).  I gave insight to what I was expecting deep into the summer months (June and July in particular) and wrapping up in August.  If you have not read that post, please do so.

I haven't posted since then because of an extremely busy schedule.  Has my thinking changed from the previous post?  No, at least there is nothing popping up that would change my mind at this point.

Since May 1, there has been quite a bit of rain, especially across the corn belt.  The areas that had record April rainfall in Kansas have been missing out (and thus drying out a bit).  But, that is about to change again...(click for a full scale graphic)

In the near-future, there was a big gyrating upper low across southeast Canada and the flow aloft is such that much below normal temperatures will invade much of the midwest and plains.  Freezing temperatures are expected across much of the northern plains and upper midwest.  I have no idea how the corn planting/emergence has progressed up there, but I guess there could be some issues.

Closer to the high plains, it looks like a "cold" and wet period (overall late in the weekend and into the middle part of next week).  I would bet that soil temperatures (at least the top four inches) will plummet at least 10 degrees next week (and 15-20 degrees in the top 2 inches).  We keep track at the NWS office in Dodge City, so I'll try and remember to post what happens in the next blog post.

Here is the potential for precipitation through the end of next week....

Also, if you haven't seen it...the latest drought monitor....

I hope to be able to update again later next week when I find a few minutes.