Update for October 22, 2020

 If you haven't had a chance to view the previous post, please read it by clicking here.

There still hasn't been much to discuss as far as the outlook through the winter and into the spring.  Yes, there are major changes occurring with the short term weather.  But what about that outlook?

First this shot of cold air coming in waves (today into Friday and Sunday into Tuesday) will bring an end to the growing season for most vegetation (if it hasn't already due to the drought).  It's not unusual for what we will be experiencing tonight and Friday and into Saturday morning as temperatures will be fall into the 20s.  But the shot of cold late Sunday into Tuesday is touching on unseasonably cold.  Not a record, but pretty dang cold.  Those with pivots running should be prepared as temperatures Monday will likely not get above freezing and lows Tuesday morning will fall into well into the teens at most locations.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a few single digit readings across eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas.

As far as precipitation, there will likely be some, especially Monday and Monday night but it really doesn't look that significant.

Attention turns to what could occur by mid-week.  There are several upper level storms lined up from northwest to southeast.  Look at the map:

The X with the superscript 2 is what I'm watching carefully (plus the upper level low - the red L - across the Pacific.  This just might be a clue for part of the weather pattern this winter and into next spring. 

Will that storm (X2) follow X1 (red dashed line)?  If so then it won't bring much, if any,  precipitation to the central plains. But....will it amplify and follow the blue line track?  This would occur in concert with a building ridge (the blue zig-zag) across the eastern Pacific because of the upper low.  That would mean a more favorable storm track and possible significant precipitation event for the central U.S. by mid-week.  This would also be a part of the pattern that would repeat at some frequency during the winter and spring.

BUT....if there is no linking between the upper low (building ridge) and the developing storm, then it would likely move faster and farther north limiting the extent of precipitation for at least the high plains.  If that occurs, the confidence increases of this terribly dry weather continuing going into winter and into next spring. I'm not saying NO rain or snow this winter, but rather odds would continue to favor below normal amounts.

I'll try and update in about a week.