If you didn't have a chance, please read the post I did on the 22nd. Click here.
In that post the discussion centered on the cold and then the potential storm for mid-week (which just occurred). The cold air was certainly very cold. I said it wasn't going to be record setting but I probably should have looked a records a little closer. Low temperatures didn't set a record but the very cold calendar day high temperatures did set a few records this past Monday. There were high temperatures that were only in the teens (I was expecting 20s which for the most part is what occurred). The attention then turned to this mid-week system.
Here is the important part I discussed in that posting on the 22nd..."But....will it amplify and follow the blue line track? This would occur in concert with a building ridge (the blue zig-zag) across the eastern Pacific because of the upper low. That would mean a more favorable storm track and possible significant precipitation event for the central U.S. by mid-week. This would also be a part of the pattern that would repeat at some frequency during the winter and spring."
The digging of the system I was talking about developed into a huge closed low aloft and well west of the high plains. It's what I call an anticyclonic wave break. This event has very SIGNIFICANT implications on this years pattern. A similar event occurred in September (the previous widespread precip event). Even though that was part of the former weather pattern, what forced that storm is likely what forced this current storm. So that part of this new weather pattern will repeat again going through winter and through the spring months (and even into the summer). However, and as I mentioned in that last post, the big question will be "how often". Maybe every 30 days - maybe 60. Unfortunately I won't know until it occurs again. Plus, the next time it could be farther north...or maybe farther south! Or maybe too far west or east! But, what is encouraging is that it actually happened.
This current storm, that has now moved east, "could of" been MUCH more significant!. First, if it wasn't for the very cold air moving all the way to the Gulf, the extent of the precipitation would have been bigger and the amounts would have been even heavier. Second, the hurricane that went into Louisiana also "robbed" the plains system of moisture to work with. The gradient of who got a lot and who got very little was very tight. Without the aforementioned hurricane and very cold air, I bet the precipitation would have been farther west and north.
Here is a map of what fell yesterday....
And here is what fell this past week (including Monday and Tuesday's snow and freezing rain) - this map includes additional reports and radar data...
Look at the snow that fell around the high plains, especially across Texas and Oklahoma!
So, what's next?
The very cold air is not likely to return for at least 2 weeks. It will be mostly milder with an occasional cold frontal passage (first may be late in the weekend) but no significantly cold air is expected. Any precipitation would likely remain across the higher terrain of the Rockies . Here is the expected precipitation (from the Weather Prediction Center) through next Thursday...
Long range forecast models are starting to converge on a possible through (dip in the jet stream) about November 10-15. That could lead to warm and windy followed by a return of some pretty cold air. Precipitation would be highly dependent on the amplitude and orientation of the jet stream. That is impossible to predict at this point. Again, the weather pattern is just getting set up and return intervals of specific orientations of the jet stream just can't be predicted at this point. Keep your fingers crossed that we get those amplifying jet streams or anticyclonic wave break storms more frequently and to the west. I wouldn't count on a frequent occurrence but hopefully enough that others that missed the precipitation this time will benefit the next.
I'll shoot for an update around the 5th.
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