More Wet May Weather in Store

 In the previous post I did on the 19th (click here) I discussed another period of precipitation starting as early as the 21st but with increasing likelihood for severe weather.  Unfortunately the severe part became a reality.  As far as rainfall, here is what fell this past 7 days ending this morning (28th)...

With the added precipitation during the past few weeks, there has been a dramatic change in the drought monitor.

Will this trend continue?  In the previous post I mentioned signals pointing to a wetter than average June.  Some of the signals have backed up a bit, but I'm still leaning for near or above normal rainfall for most locations.

For the near term, a cold high pressure system settling into the midwest will promote gulf moisture to return across west Texas and into the high plains.  A weak, but important disturbance aloft will intensify into the southwest U.S. and will help to produce several rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend and into early next week.   The majority of the rainfall will likely be concentrated over the southern High Plains but with a fair amount into Kansas/Colorado. That developing system is denoted by the red X across the eastern Pacific with it's eventual track indicated by the red dotted line/arrow.

There may be a prolonged (3 to 5 days) break beginning mid-week. 

Here is an early look at how much rain "might" fall through late next week, with the majority falling through the 2nd of June.

More on the June and July outlook in the next post.

Relief For Most of The High Plains

Very thankfully there has been widespread precipitation during the past few weeks - well actually for much of May so far, without a lot of hail and wind.  In the previous update I did on April 30 (read it by clicking here) the title of that particular post was "Will it be a repeat of 2011?".  For several months I have seen hints of what happened in 2011 - there were actually quite a few similarities in the signal.  That had me concerned but if you had read that posting or go check out the April 30 entry, you will see the following important statement: Am I still concerned?  Yes, but actually just barely. I was finally starting to see signals pointing to an increase in precipitation, for at least May.  The biggest contributor to the possibility was a strong MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) and subsequent phase space.  "IF" May ended up wet then I had hopes of mitigation to possible dryness for the majority of the growing season into summer.  More on that in a bit.

Another component to my thought process has been looking at the length of magnitude of cycling nature of the upper atmospheric flow across the northern hemisphere.  Both elements have seemed to work in favor of precipitation across the high plains (and associated cooler than normal temperatures).  Here is a look at what has fallen for this May through 7 AM this morning, May 19.

There has been very generous precipitation for most locations with actually too much rainfall in some areas.  Locations in west central Kansas have ALREADY reached the wettest May on record!  Wow!  And look at the area around Salina with over 10 inches so far!

What a change! Especially for the areas with greatest drought impacts!  The drought monitor map has been updated only through the 11th, so much of the latest rainfall has not been incorporated into the drought analyst.  I suspect big improvements on the next issuance.

Here is a look at the jetstream map from this morning (19th)...

The upper low (the red L) over Clayton, NM this morning has been slowly meandering this way for the past week and has contributed to much of the rainfall (and heavy snow in the southern Rockies).   The influence of that feature will be out of here by the end tomorrow (Thursday).  But, we're not necessarily done with the precipitation!

A deep upper trough (the start is the L near Washington State on the map above) will be in place across the western U.S. for the next 4-5 days or so.  This will promote warming temperatures (surface and aloft) across the high plains.  IF the upper level temperatures don't get too warm, then there will continue to be opportunities for rainfall.  However, the bad news is that that precipitation will come in the form of thunderstorms and there will likely be severe weather too.  The most likely time-frame will be early next week, although there could still be at least widely scattered activity starting this Friday the 21st.  Here is the outlook for precipitation through next Wednesday (from the Weather Prediction  Center)...

Finally, I'm seeing strong signals for above normal precipitation for June!  Confidence is increasing anyway.  IF June ends up wetter than normal, then the likelihood that July temperatures will be at or even slightly cooler than average is seemingly becoming a possibility.  More on that later.

I'll do my best to update by the end of next week.

And again, if you haven't had a chance to submit the very short survey....https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/7ZSGTTG

Will it be a repeat of 2011?

For the past few months I've been seeing some similarities to the awful year of 2011 across much of the high plains and briefly mentioned that in several posts.  If you look at the precipitation pattern for January through March of this year and compare it to May 1 through July 31, 2011 I think you can see that there is some similarity, especially for southwest Kansas into southeast Colorado and into west Texas.

Here is the current percent of normal precipitation map for January 1 through March 31 of this year...

Here is the period of May 1 through July 31 of 2011...

It was amazing that in 2011 the very extreme dryness ended abruptly going north into northwest Kansas and western Nebraska.

And here is the precipitation for the first 29 days of April...

That is not a good trend for SW Kansas, SE Colorado and into west Texas. 

Am I still concerned?  Yes, but actually just barely.  There have been systems and the threat that they stay north and east of much of the plains is still there.  However, now I'm seeing some better signs for at least May.  If May can end with decent moisture then that would help mitigate anything very serious in July and August.  

In the previous post I did a couple of weeks ago (you can read that here), I ended with this....

"For this past few months I discussed the period of April 25th through May 2.  The most likely impact would be colder weather (again).  There continues to be a hint of that happening.  I think once we get past the 2nd, there should be a dramatic and pro-longed warmup."

Well that's not working out quite as planned.  Yes the 28th, 29th and today (30th) have been at or slightly cooler than normal, but this weekend should be pretty warm.  A cool down starts Monday the 3rd.  But after looking at the pattern again, I now see the trend to a not so dramatic and pro-longed warmup.  If fact, I'm now leaning in the opposite direction!  Why the change?  I feel confident it can be directly tied to a robust Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO).   Look at the schematic of the MJO back in February when we had that brutal cold weather and what has started earlier in April...

The current MJO is quite strong and is entering a phase space (specific area of the Pacific) 

that in itself can promote a cooler pattern across the high plains.  Based on other MJO's in recorded history and located in a similar area, this is what "could" be expected...

                                                   Temperature anomaly

And perhaps better news, look at what is possible with the same strength and phase space regarding  precipitation!

                                Precipitation anomaly

If anything, this boosts my confidence for much of May.

In the nearer term, there should be a complex of thunderstorms late this weekend or Monday.  The responsible system is the red X on the following jestream map...

The main question is how far south the complex will be.

One or two more chances will be possible, especially between May 6th and May 13th.  Here is the outlook from the Weather Predication Center through next Friday...

Thank you again to those that filled out the quick survey (that link is https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/7ZSGTTG) as that will help me decide what I do with these outlook posts.  If I retire from the agency I work for, I would be able to do these posts more frequently. 

Winter in Spring

 As advertised in the last blog post on the 9th (click here) the advertised cold weather has continued (except for a few brief days of "mild") temperatures.  The 2 and 4 inch soil temperatures plummeted to below climatological normals this past week.  From the Kansas State Mesonet here is a look at the 7 day average 2 and 4 inch soil temperatures around Kansas (as of Monday afternoon the 19th)....

 

The precipitation this last 7 days was not nearly as significant as I first believed would be possible.  The most widespread shot of precipitation was late on the 16th into the 17th.  There were some decent amounts but what is concerning is the void area across the southwest counties of Kansas.  Here is a look at the precipitation the past 7 days ending this Monday morning (April 19)...

I DON'T like the configuration of the missed area!  During the winter I in the back of my mind I was "thinking" about shades of 2011.  Then with the posting I did on March 5th I mentioned it again.  I'm still not sold on that yet but concern is increasing.  More later.

With the posting I did on the 5th of March I also mentioned the period of April 17-20 and in the warm sector there would be the threat of severe weather and the potential for a blizzard in the cold sector.  Although I'm not expecting a blizzard tomorrow (20th), there will be definitely be widespread snow of varying amounts (accumulations).  Here is just a really quick though from the Weather Prediction Center...

The biggest issue will be the potential detrimental cold expected.  Here is a look at expected minimum temperatures the next 48 hours (and adjustments will be made by the National Weather Service - these are just first guesses by the agency)...

For Tuesday morning (and unfortunately there will be wind with these temperatures)....

For Wednesday morning (less wind)....

The cold air is the result of the same configuration in the jetstream that I discussed in that last post on the 9th.  Compare this upper air chart from this morning to what I posted on that date.  It's very similar with the configuration across western Canada.

Later in the week there is signs of a weak system passing across Oklahoma that "might" bring a little bit of precipitation to parts of the high plains (more likely for eastern Kansas though) on Friday.  I wouldn't get too excited at this point.

Here is the outlook for precipitation through next Monday with the majority of what you see for the central plains occurring with the snow...

For this past few months I discussed the period of April 25th through May 2.  The most likely impact would be colder weather (again).  There continues to be a hint of that happening.  I think once we get past the 2nd, there should be a dramatic and pro-longed warmup.  I'll try and update that possibility in the next post (shooting for 23rd).

And just in case if you haven't had an opportunity to help me out filling out a very brief, short survey...here is that link:  https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/7ZSGTTG

I Wish the Wind Would Blow

I'm sure everyone is ready for this persistent wind to let up.  I know there are many of you that are having difficulties getting the spraying done.  At the airport in Dodge City during March, there were 15 days with winds observed over 40 MPH and 4 of those days had 50 MPH or higher speeds!  That is the most since 1991 and only the 2nd time since 1977 (for March).  April has started off with similar windy days with 6 of 9 having 40+ MPH gusts and 3 of those have had 50+!

In the previous post on the 26th, I had mentioned that the last 2 days of March and the first of April would be much colder.  Lows on those 3 days were pretty chilly!  The 31st had lows down into the teens and 20s across the high plains.  The lowest I saw was 12 in western Nebraska on the 31st.

The next period of interest mentioned in that previous post was April 4-8 with the potential for thunderstorms, some severe.  There was one severe event with the western extent significantly limited due to warm air aloft (the Capp).  Such is life sometimes across the plains during the spring.  The 6th into the 7th saw severe thunderstorms as far west as Edwards and Pawnee counties in Kansas and there were quite a few large hail reports. Wrap around precipitation did occur on the 7th and farther west.  The big winners for that event were parts of Ellis and Rush counties with points north and east with lighter amounts elsewhere.  Here is a map of precipitation the past 14 days but for Kansas it all occurred on the 6th and 7th.

Looking at this mornings upper atmosphere and jetstream image, there was a pretty strong upper level storm intensifying as it was sliding into Kansas.  The eastern part of Kansas may benefit with a pretty good dose of rain.  Very light amounts (mostly sprinkles) this afternoon (Friday) across western Kansas will be quickly gone.  Cold air behind the system will allow lows to get back into the 20s and 30s across the high plains on Saturday morning the 10th.

 

Now attention turns to the upcoming prolonged cold and potentially wet period.  On the satellite map there was a large circulation aloft across western Canada that was partially the result of ridging (the blue squiggly line extending up into eastern Siberia).  The overall pattern that was established during the fall would support much of that circulation to stay across Canada but with smaller scale systems ejecting across the northern plains.  The result will be another strong cold front moving across the area Monday (12th) with reinforcing shots throughout the week.  Then upslope flow (easterly winds moving up into the front range) will stay locked in bringing several rounds of rain and snow to the western part of the high plains.  The eastern extent is highly uncertain next week but there should be a few bouts of drizzle or very light rain.  The best chance for significant amounts would be towards the end of the week but the timing is unknown this far out.  In previous posts I had mentioned April 17-20th as an interesting period so that is something to watch.  I hoping that on at least one of the days next week the developing areas of precipitation across Colorado will make a run well into Kansas and Nebraska.

As far as the cold temperatures a lot will depend on cloud cover.  If clouds hold in tight, the highs would be 15 to 25 degrees below normal (30s and 40s).  If one of those mornings has a clearing sky, lows could dip well into the 20s.  Again precipitation may not be significant except the higher terrain of the high plains, at least until the end of the week.  Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center....

You may recall that in past posts I had mentioned April 25 - May 2 as a potential cold period.  There is some support of this from long range computer forecast models.  I'm hoping that any "cold" would not be too extreme, i.e., it would not result in a late freeze.  More on that in the next posting.

Finally, thank you again for those that filled out the survey to help me decide the future of this blog.  If you haven't had that chance, here is that link:  https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/7ZSGTTG

Rounding Out March

First off, a big thank you to those that have submitted the very quick survey that will help me decide the direction this blog will go and what I potentially will be doing in the not too distant future. If you haven't had a chance to complete the survey, the link is: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/7ZSGTTG.  It is very brief and will take you less than a minute.

I think just about everyone will be pleased with how the March weather has turned out across the high plains.  Beneficial moisture (more or less),and relatively mild temperatures can summarize the month.  Yes, there was a major blizzard/snow storm across the western part of the high plains (especially the Palmer Divide and Front Range).  But a major blizzard spared the remainder of the high plains.  But, it was close!  The widespread and major late winter storm on the 13th and 14th was really close to slamming the entire area with a mind boggling blizzard.   East of the extremely heavy snow there was instead widespread rain, some very excessive.  I was travelling back from Omaha on the 14th and experienced an east wind of 50 to 60 MPH with heavy rain at 38 degrees!

For March, the Dodge City airport was sitting at the 5th wettest March on record and those records date back to 1875!  And for Ford County, where the airport resides, the monthly total is actually far less than some other reports!  Of course not everyone got excessive rainfall but just about all locations got at least enough to improve drought or near drought conditions.  

Here is the map of estimated precipitation since March 1st (through the 25th)...

This amount of precipitation has helped mitigate drought conditions.  As of the 23rd, this was the latest map....

With the March precipitation, the improvement across many areas was substantial!

For the short term the final in a series of weather systems was moving out into the plains.  As of early this Friday morning the center of the system was located across Arizona.  It was weakening as it was moving out.  A few sprinkles were noted across the high plains but because the boundary layer of the atmosphere had been scoured of moisture, the system just isn't strong enough to produce significant rain.  Farther east, later into Friday evening, there was enough moisture for scattered thunderstorms.

In several of the previous posts I had mentioned March 25-31 as potentially being "cold" or at least below normal.  The pattern is set but because of the northern branch of the westerlies (jet stream) being strongest across Canada, the really cold air has been held up north.  Good thing!  With the colder air being held north and with the configuration of the jetstream, the Arctic Oscillation has been really positive in magnitude, polar opposite to what it was back in February.

The index was headed south (less positive and inching towards a negative value). IF (a big if) the AO index does go negative, that could set us up for that April 25-May 2 possible cold that I had mentioned.  BTW, if you missed it I discussed dates with the highest potential for having significant weather.  If you didn't see it, click here.

After doing some more analysis, I have come up with 2 more periods of potentially significant weather.  One period is April 4-8 where I think there will be an increased opportunity for thunderstorms. Hopefully far enough west to benefit the area with drought conditions.  The second period is May 6-13.  This could be  a pretty active severe weather set up.  I still think that April 25-May 2 could be really interesting and potentially very impactful at least for parts of the area.  The potential for cold still is there but it could also lead to a battleground from west to east of cold to warm.  More on this later.

Finally, this next 7 days should see ups and downs on temperatures.  Warmer/milder through the weekend but then much colder Tuesday through Thursday with probably overnight lows below freezing.

Thanks again to those submitting the survey.  

Wild March Weather - 300th post!

The weather has certainly been interesting this past week!  From severe thunderstorms to a major spring snowfall.  In the previous post I gave some periods that I believe to have pin-pointed.  If you didn't read that post, click here.

In the previous posting, I provided a link to a very short and quick survey that will help me determine the future of this blog and posts.  If you have not filled out that survey (again it's very brief), please help me out and do so.  That survey link is: here 

To date I have posted 299 times, this one is my 300th!  The first one I did was on April 15, 2014!  Wow I can't believe it was that long ago!  For those of you not too familiar with this blog, I have done it on my own time unrelated with my employment with the National Weather Service.  If you want to read that very first blog post, click here.  I need to determine if I will continue.

In the previous posting, I discussed the active weather expected for the period of March 10-17, but especially March 15.  Well it certainly has been active with the highlight being the 13th/14th.   It looks like the storm coming in tonight and moving out tomorrow (16th-17th) will be the end of that active period.  But, there is more to come! 

BTW, here is the estimated precipitation that has fallen this past 7 days, ending this morning March 16.

Here was the upper air chart this morning...

The Storm (the red L across Arizona) for tonight and tomorrow will be very compact making details in the forecast (type of precipitation and specific amounts) extremely challenging for forecasters.   The exact track and mesoscale processes will determine the final outcome.  Here is the guestimate from the Weather Prediction Center for the next 7 days (with the majority of this falling with this first system)...

So, if you didn't go back to the post on the 5th, here is the outline I left you with....

These following periods are not the ONLY possible weather....they just have my attention.

1) March 10-17, but especially around March 15.  This should be the next active period but probably only 1 storm will impact the high plains and that would be around the 15th.  Before then it could be the eastern plains.  I wouldn't be surprised if there was a blizzard, especially for higher elevations of the high plains.

Instead of 1 storm for the high plains - make that 2 although much of the high plains north of Kansas will miss out on this one.

2) March 25-31 is a period of potentially much below normal temperatures.  That could be problematic as with this recent rain and the mild temperatures coming up, there may be some early breaking of dormancy of some vegetation.  Also, the b word comes to mind.  The last 10 days of March are actually the most active for blizzards, based on history.

I think there will be a few more opportunities for storms as March is closing out.  Any system that would bring much below normal temperatures is not showing up at this time.  But, I still think there is that chance.

3) April 17-20 could be interesting.  If the warm sector is far enough north/west then perhaps a severe weather outbreak?  Hopefully no blizzard but I wouldn't be surprised for areas of the high plains.

This still looks to be on track.

4) April 25-May 2 could potentially see much below normal temperatures.  If there is going to be a late frost or freeze, that would be the time period.

No change in the thought process for this period.

I will wait a bit more before venturing out on a summer outlook. 

Again if you didn't have a chance to fill out that brief survey, I would appreciate it greatly if you could help me out.