I'm sure everyone is ready for this persistent wind to let up. I know there are many of you that are having difficulties getting the spraying done. At the airport in Dodge City during March, there were 15 days with winds observed over 40 MPH and 4 of those days had 50 MPH or higher speeds! That is the most since 1991 and only the 2nd time since 1977 (for March). April has started off with similar windy days with 6 of 9 having 40+ MPH gusts and 3 of those have had 50+!
In the previous post on the 26th, I had mentioned that the last 2 days of March and the first of April would be much colder. Lows on those 3 days were pretty chilly! The 31st had lows down into the teens and 20s across the high plains. The lowest I saw was 12 in western Nebraska on the 31st.
The next period of interest mentioned in that previous post was April 4-8 with the potential for thunderstorms, some severe. There was one severe event with the western extent significantly limited due to warm air aloft (the Capp). Such is life sometimes across the plains during the spring. The 6th into the 7th saw severe thunderstorms as far west as Edwards and Pawnee counties in Kansas and there were quite a few large hail reports. Wrap around precipitation did occur on the 7th and farther west. The big winners for that event were parts of Ellis and Rush counties with points north and east with lighter amounts elsewhere. Here is a map of precipitation the past 14 days but for Kansas it all occurred on the 6th and 7th.
Looking at this mornings upper atmosphere and jetstream image, there was a pretty strong upper level storm intensifying as it was sliding into Kansas. The eastern part of Kansas may benefit with a pretty good dose of rain. Very light amounts (mostly sprinkles) this afternoon (Friday) across western Kansas will be quickly gone. Cold air behind the system will allow lows to get back into the 20s and 30s across the high plains on Saturday morning the 10th.
Now attention turns to the upcoming prolonged cold and potentially wet period. On the satellite map there was a large circulation aloft across western Canada that was partially the result of ridging (the blue squiggly line extending up into eastern Siberia). The overall pattern that was established during the fall would support much of that circulation to stay across Canada but with smaller scale systems ejecting across the northern plains. The result will be another strong cold front moving across the area Monday (12th) with reinforcing shots throughout the week. Then upslope flow (easterly winds moving up into the front range) will stay locked in bringing several rounds of rain and snow to the western part of the high plains. The eastern extent is highly uncertain next week but there should be a few bouts of drizzle or very light rain. The best chance for significant amounts would be towards the end of the week but the timing is unknown this far out. In previous posts I had mentioned April 17-20th as an interesting period so that is something to watch. I hoping that on at least one of the days next week the developing areas of precipitation across Colorado will make a run well into Kansas and Nebraska.
As far as the cold temperatures a lot will depend on cloud cover. If clouds hold in tight, the highs would be 15 to 25 degrees below normal (30s and 40s). If one of those mornings has a clearing sky, lows could dip well into the 20s. Again precipitation may not be significant except the higher terrain of the high plains, at least until the end of the week. Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center....
You may recall that in past posts I had mentioned April 25 - May 2 as a potential cold period. There is some support of this from long range computer forecast models. I'm hoping that any "cold" would not be too extreme, i.e., it would not result in a late freeze. More on that in the next posting.
Finally, thank you again for those that filled out the survey to help me decide the future of this blog. If you haven't had that chance, here is that link: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/7ZSGTTG
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