First off, a big thank you to those that have submitted the very quick survey that will help me decide the direction this blog will go and what I potentially will be doing in the not too distant future. If you haven't had a chance to complete the survey, the link is: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/7ZSGTTG. It is very brief and will take you less than a minute.
I think just about everyone will be pleased with how the March weather has turned out across the high plains. Beneficial moisture (more or less),and relatively mild temperatures can summarize the month. Yes, there was a major blizzard/snow storm across the western part of the high plains (especially the Palmer Divide and Front Range). But a major blizzard spared the remainder of the high plains. But, it was close! The widespread and major late winter storm on the 13th and 14th was really close to slamming the entire area with a mind boggling blizzard. East of the extremely heavy snow there was instead widespread rain, some very excessive. I was travelling back from Omaha on the 14th and experienced an east wind of 50 to 60 MPH with heavy rain at 38 degrees!
For March, the Dodge City airport was sitting at the 5th wettest March on record and those records date back to 1875! And for Ford County, where the airport resides, the monthly total is actually far less than some other reports! Of course not everyone got excessive rainfall but just about all locations got at least enough to improve drought or near drought conditions.
Here is the map of estimated precipitation since March 1st (through the 25th)...
This amount of precipitation has helped mitigate drought conditions. As of the 23rd, this was the latest map....
With the March precipitation, the improvement across many areas was substantial!
For the short term the final in a series of weather systems was moving out into the plains. As of early this Friday morning the center of the system was located across Arizona. It was weakening as it was moving out. A few sprinkles were noted across the high plains but because the boundary layer of the atmosphere had been scoured of moisture, the system just isn't strong enough to produce significant rain. Farther east, later into Friday evening, there was enough moisture for scattered thunderstorms.
In several of the previous posts I had mentioned March 25-31 as potentially being "cold" or at least below normal. The pattern is set but because of the northern branch of the westerlies (jet stream) being strongest across Canada, the really cold air has been held up north. Good thing! With the colder air being held north and with the configuration of the jetstream, the Arctic Oscillation has been really positive in magnitude, polar opposite to what it was back in February.
The index was headed south (less positive and inching towards a negative value). IF (a big if) the AO index does go negative, that could set us up for that April 25-May 2 possible cold that I had mentioned. BTW, if you missed it I discussed dates with the highest potential for having significant weather. If you didn't see it, click here.
After doing some more analysis, I have come up with 2 more periods of potentially significant weather. One period is April 4-8 where I think there will be an increased opportunity for thunderstorms. Hopefully far enough west to benefit the area with drought conditions. The second period is May 6-13. This could be a pretty active severe weather set up. I still think that April 25-May 2 could be really interesting and potentially very impactful at least for parts of the area. The potential for cold still is there but it could also lead to a battleground from west to east of cold to warm. More on this later.
Finally, this next 7 days should see ups and downs on temperatures. Warmer/milder through the weekend but then much colder Tuesday through Thursday with probably overnight lows below freezing.
Thanks again to those submitting the survey.
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