Updated 10/29/20

 If you didn't have a chance, please read the post I did on the 22nd.  Click here.

In that post the discussion centered on the cold and then the potential storm for mid-week (which just occurred).  The cold air was certainly very cold.  I said it wasn't going to be record setting but I probably should have looked a records a little closer.  Low temperatures didn't set a record but the very cold calendar day high temperatures did set a few records this past Monday.  There were high temperatures that were only in the teens (I was expecting 20s which for the most part is what occurred).  The attention then turned to this mid-week system.

Here is the important part I discussed in that posting on the 22nd..."But....will it amplify and follow the blue line track?  This would occur in concert with a building ridge (the blue zig-zag) across the eastern Pacific because of the upper low.  That would mean a more favorable storm track and possible significant precipitation event for the central U.S. by mid-week.  This would also be a part of the pattern that would repeat at some frequency during the winter and spring."

The digging of the system I was talking about developed into a huge closed low aloft and well west of the high plains.  It's what I call an anticyclonic wave break.  This event has very SIGNIFICANT implications on this years pattern.  A similar event occurred in September (the previous widespread precip event).  Even though that was part of the former weather pattern, what forced that storm is likely what forced this current storm.  So that part of this new weather pattern will repeat again going through winter and through the spring months (and even into the summer).  However, and as I mentioned in that last post, the big question will be "how often".  Maybe every 30 days - maybe 60.  Unfortunately I won't know until it occurs again.  Plus, the next time it could be farther north...or maybe farther south!  Or maybe too far west or east!  But, what is encouraging is that it actually happened. 

This current storm, that has now moved east, "could of" been MUCH more significant!.  First, if it wasn't for the very cold air moving all the way to the Gulf, the extent of the precipitation would have been bigger and the amounts would have been even heavier.  Second, the hurricane that went into Louisiana also "robbed" the plains system of moisture to work with.   The gradient of who got a lot and who got very little was very tight.  Without the aforementioned hurricane and very cold air, I bet the precipitation would have been farther west and north.

Here is a map of what fell yesterday....

And here is what fell this past week (including Monday and Tuesday's snow and freezing rain) - this map includes additional reports and radar data... 

Look at the snow that fell around the high plains, especially across Texas and Oklahoma!

So, what's next?

The very cold air is not likely to return for at least 2 weeks.  It will be mostly milder with an occasional cold frontal passage (first may be late in the weekend) but no significantly cold air is expected.  Any precipitation would likely remain across the higher terrain of the Rockies .  Here is the expected precipitation (from the Weather Prediction Center) through next Thursday...

Long range forecast models are starting to converge on a possible through (dip in the jet stream) about November 10-15.  That could lead to warm and windy followed by a return of some pretty cold air.  Precipitation would be highly dependent on the amplitude and orientation of the jet stream.  That is impossible to predict at this point.  Again, the weather pattern is just getting set up and return intervals of specific orientations of the jet stream just can't be predicted at this point.  Keep your fingers crossed that we get those amplifying jet streams or anticyclonic wave break storms more frequently and to the west.  I wouldn't count on a frequent occurrence but hopefully enough that others that missed the precipitation this time will benefit the next. 

I'll shoot for an update around the 5th.

Update for October 22, 2020

 If you haven't had a chance to view the previous post, please read it by clicking here.

There still hasn't been much to discuss as far as the outlook through the winter and into the spring.  Yes, there are major changes occurring with the short term weather.  But what about that outlook?

First this shot of cold air coming in waves (today into Friday and Sunday into Tuesday) will bring an end to the growing season for most vegetation (if it hasn't already due to the drought).  It's not unusual for what we will be experiencing tonight and Friday and into Saturday morning as temperatures will be fall into the 20s.  But the shot of cold late Sunday into Tuesday is touching on unseasonably cold.  Not a record, but pretty dang cold.  Those with pivots running should be prepared as temperatures Monday will likely not get above freezing and lows Tuesday morning will fall into well into the teens at most locations.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a few single digit readings across eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas.

As far as precipitation, there will likely be some, especially Monday and Monday night but it really doesn't look that significant.

Attention turns to what could occur by mid-week.  There are several upper level storms lined up from northwest to southeast.  Look at the map:

The X with the superscript 2 is what I'm watching carefully (plus the upper level low - the red L - across the Pacific.  This just might be a clue for part of the weather pattern this winter and into next spring. 

Will that storm (X2) follow X1 (red dashed line)?  If so then it won't bring much, if any,  precipitation to the central plains. But....will it amplify and follow the blue line track?  This would occur in concert with a building ridge (the blue zig-zag) across the eastern Pacific because of the upper low.  That would mean a more favorable storm track and possible significant precipitation event for the central U.S. by mid-week.  This would also be a part of the pattern that would repeat at some frequency during the winter and spring.

BUT....if there is no linking between the upper low (building ridge) and the developing storm, then it would likely move faster and farther north limiting the extent of precipitation for at least the high plains.  If that occurs, the confidence increases of this terribly dry weather continuing going into winter and into next spring. I'm not saying NO rain or snow this winter, but rather odds would continue to favor below normal amounts.

I'll try and update in about a week.

Updated 10/8/2020

As many of you know from what I've discussed a million times, the "new" weather pattern starts to develop during the early fall, specifically around the first week of October.  Since that weather regime is just now getting started, there really isn't much to contribute to this posting that is different from the post I did on September 24 or prior on September 15.  I have had concerns during the past 1 to 1 1/2 years of significant dryness returning, which obviously it has.  The question is how bad (what magnitude) and how long it will last.

Here is the latest drought map....and this should be alarming to many folks....

The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is pretty dang pessimistic through the end of the year.

Again, the pattern is just now getting established so I'm not ready to throw in the towel all together.  But, again it's been expected to turn significantly drier.  Look at the anomaly of precipitation from May 2018 through April of 2019.  When it's THAT wet, the pendulum will swing back the other way.  We just hope not to extreme levels.  Could this be another 2011 coming up?  Again, without the new pattern being fully established, it's pretty hard to say.  I wouldn't discount it completely, although it's not likely to those levels.

Here is that map from May 2018 through April of last year....just as a comparison of where we were then and were we are now.  BTW, that was the wettest 12 month period on record (nationwide)...

As far as the balance of October, many of the long range computer models have absolutely nothing!  That is NO moisture through October 31!  On the other hand, there are a couple of computer models that have a shot of significant precipitation in about a week.  It really is going to depend on amplification of weak weather systems coming out of the Pacific Northwest.  There is just a VERY slight indicator that it could happen.  The dry outlook for the next 10-15 days is much more likely than wet. If there does happen to be amplification of the jetstream during the next week and we get moisture, that will be just one of the clues to the upcoming pattern.  We better hope for that amplification!

BTW, the hurricane will not help for the high plains.

From the Weather Prediction Center into next Thursday the 15th...

Update - September 24, 2020

Those that might have missed it, after quite an adventure I was able to log in a update this blog last week.  That post can be read here.  In that post I discussed the outlook for the fall, winter and into spring.  If you haven't had an opportunity to do so, please go back and read that.  One aspect I did not mention in particular, is snowfall during the season when a La Nina is present.  For Dodge City (and likely the majority of the high plains), out of the past 21 La Nina events, snowfall for the season (Sept-May) was less than normal 16 times.  But, if the La Nina was weak or moderate then 10 were less snowy that normal.  This year the La Nina will probably stay weak to moderate.  So that is about a 50/50 split!  In my "gut feeling" I said Dodge City would receive more than 20 inches (normal is 21.1").

In that same post I stressed again (I've done that a billion times) that the new pattern does not get going and established until later in the fall.  Until the first full cycle of jet stream orientation of amplitude and wave frequency completes, there really is no way to have an idea what the pattern will bring.  Again, I'm only going off a gut feeling.  

The dry fall sure seems likely though!  Hopefully there will be at least one or two systems that bring moisture, and I think there will be just that. As far as an early freeze...there will be a pretty good shot of really cold air early next week and again in early October.  It doesn't appear like a widespread freeze for the high plains.  However, we're approaching the "normal" date of the first freeze across the western high plains anyway.

During the next few weeks I'm sure a flurry of winter outlooks/forecasts will be flooding social media.  I'm sure those outlooks will be all over the place.  Many/most of these outlooks will be based completely on the fact that La Nina will be in place.  But, every La Nina is different.  Plus there are other factors that I'll look into once the pattern starts to develop that most will ignore.

I'll leave you with this.  In the past 25 years that I've lived at my location northwest of Dodge, I have NEVER seen squirrel behavior like I'm seeing this fall.  I have a ton of oak trees (not just burr).  Those squirrels have been stripping out GREEN acorns and burying them everywhere.  I have not witnessed them taking green ones before they've started drying down and turning.  It sure seems like this is occurring early.  Does this mean anything?  I can't answer that but I do know that animals sometimes have behaviors tied to the weather.  If you have a comment or idea on this behavior, leave a comment here on this blog or shoot me an email (wxmaniam@yahoo.com).

So, let's hope for some moisture for the winter wheat emergence.   Prospects look dismal for a while.. Here is the outlook into the first of October from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC).   Not good.  But, there should be at least some very light rain or drizzle with the first shot of cold air late Sunday or Monday.  It just won't be that much. I'm sure the WPC will update.  

Hopefully there will be a couple of chances in October.  More on that later.

He's back! Updated 9/15/2020

WOW!  What an adventure!  I got locked out of my own blog!  For some reason I could not log into this blog in early July. Shoot maybe I said something politically sensitive about weather and was banned for a while?  I tried everything including contacting blogger.com; to no avail.  I thought I would just start over but then I wasn't sure how to let longtime readers know how to get to it!  Then, last week when I was checking my giant pumpkin growing blog I noticed a little checkmark in the edit page to this one once I got logged into blogger.com.  Eureka!  I don't know - I can't explain it.  Regardless....here is the latest.

**********

As expected many months ago, it was fairly likely that precipitation for 2020 would not quite get to normal for much of the high plains.  The drought that developed during the fall was expected to continue but the chances for drought improving rains were also possible.  Some areas got lucky.  Others not so much.  For 2020, here is a look at how much precipitation has been observed through 9/14/20.

And here is the percent of normal.

The drought monitor shows the improvement from recent September rains.

Ups and downs and wild swings in weather are not unusual.  But what is certainly unusual is the highly abnormal cold that recently impacted the area for 3 days.  Temperature records were smashed!  Is this an indication of what is to be expected later this fall and winter?  Stand by….

Back to the precipitation.  At Dodge City there had never been more than 3 years in a row of above normal precipitation since records began in 1874.  At the end of 2019, the above normal precipitation year ended as the sixth in a row! For 2020 it could be the 7^th year in a row IF the airport gets another 3.16 inches.  But that is not likely.

 

 

 

 

Temperatures so far for 2020 have been mostly above normal, although this summer has not been extremely hot.  However, humidity has been pretty high – especially in July and August which of course can make it feel hotter.

 

 

So, the million-dollar question.  Will the early shot of abnormally cold during early September be precursor to what to expect going into Winter?   Short answer – NO!  Again, I've written and stated numerous times that a new weather pattern develops in early October.  This pattern across the entire northern hemisphere will dictate how atmospheric systems will impact our weather during the fall, winter and following summer.  That pattern that sets up is influenced by many elements, one of which is the location and magnitude of cold and warm pockets of ocean temperatures.  Unfortunately, there is NO predictability of what that pattern will look like as of mid-September.

So, an outlook for the fall and winter is nothing more than a wild guess.  Many outlooks will focus on ONLY the equatorial Pacific water temperatures (El Nino, La Nina or both).  Using this technique often leads to a “busted” forecast. 

You may have heard that a La Nina is developing and is expected this winter.  Those using this as a sole predictor have already said dry with normal to above temperatures for this winter.   But you see, all La Nina’s are not the same, especially for the central U.S.!

For example...for southwest Kansas - out of 21 La Nina winters (Dec, Jan, Feb), 3 were wetter than normal.  The other 18 were around normal on precipitation!  None were particularly dry.  Out of those same 21 La Nina winters, 7 were warmer than normal, 11 were colder and 3 were normal.  So, using La Nina as the ONLY predictor, odds favor normal precipitation and odds favor below normal temperatures.  HOWEVER, since the pattern does not even get set up until October, making an outlook is nothing more than a wild guess!  And why do predictions only include December, January, and February!  Shoot winter for southwest Kansas can start in October and last into April!

My outlook (gut feeling and wild guess) ….

In general, the fall will be dry (but with a couple good chances for precipitation).

Snowfall for October through April will be more than 20 inches.

There will likely be several significant storms (at least one major blizzard).  Watch out for that first week of January!

Winter temperatures will average out below normal.

January will be much below normal on temperatures.

Spring may yield an up-tick in severe weather (hail, high wind, and tornadoes).

Please remember that the pattern does not get established until October.  My confidence level on that gut feeling outlook is not high. 

Unless I get locked out of the this site again, I'll try and get another update later next week.  Just in case, if I do get locked out and can't update, I'll put a message on my giant pumpkin growing blog posting.  Those not familiar with that one, go to: https://jeffsgiantpumpkins.blogspot.com/

Update - June 28, 2020

As discussed in the posting on the 19th (click here), I mentioned that for a couple of months I had concerns about the expanding drought and still did on the 19th, despite a respite of generally wetter weather expected.  As of this posting, my concerns have deepened.  At the moment, I think we're headed for an extended and expanding drought.    The respite in the dry weather pattern was generally brief but at least for most areas there was significant rainfall, but there was also very severe wind and hail - and actually excessive rainfall.  But despite the favorable pattern that brought the increased in rainfall, there were still quite a few locations that did not receive ANY rainfall!  That is concerning!

Here is what fell during the past 7 days....



Although the drought monitor presented below does not take into account all the rainfall (not including the large Mescoscale Convective Systems (MCS) on Friday and Saturday (26th and 27th)), there really wasn't much improvement in conditions except for those lucky ones.  Here was the drought map for the 26th...



What has got to be a big eye operner is how the dryness and drought conditions have been expanding.  The western Cornbelt is seeing conditions deteriorate significantly.  Even other parts of the Cornbelt are now seeing abnormally dry conditions.

For this week the pattern is back to the hot (and very hot), windy and dry weather for most of the region.  This has been expected.  In the previous post I said "Going into July, I think there may be a couple of good chances for thunderstorms but I'm afraid those chances may not be enough to alleviate the drought."

The first chance is a small one and that will be toward the end of this week - maybe late Thursday/Friday?  But at this point it's too early to say if it will be a large MCS or just scattered storms (for the high plains).  The most likely period for thunderstorms (at least several chances) will be between July 6-14.  We better hope that period pans out otherwise going into late July and early August we will probably be looking at a D4 (Exceptional Drought).

To add insult to injury, here is the official U.S. Drought Outlook through the end of September....



I'll try and update toward the end of the week.

Updated - June 19, 2020

In the previous post I did on May 31 (click here), I discussed the ongoing and expanding drought.  I had concerns then and still do today, even though we will be in a "wet" pattern for the next week. 

On February 24 I made a forecast that June 18-19 would be a period that there would either be an outbreak of severe weather or there would be excessive rains!  I then posted in this blog on April 22 about that same period.  This morning (19th) there was a widespread precipitation event that covered much of the central U.S..  At the Dodge City airport this morning there was 2.27 inches of rain in about 2 hours.  There weren't any official reports as of this writing, but it appears that a few 3-4 inch amounts were observed.  Did everyone get that much rain?  Of course not, but there were good rains across much of the area.  And, for a morning event - that is pretty impressive!  Another round is possible this Friday night spreading in from eastern Colorado.  Beyond tonight, there will be yet another couple of rounds through the middle to latter part of next week.  Thus, the earlier thinking that the 2nd half of June could see above normal rainfall is still in play.  Unfortunately, it might be back to a dry stretch after that.

What has really been hurting things is the excessive and persistent wind!   Through June 18, the average wind at Dodge City was 18.7 MPH (that is an average of hourly observations every day) and this is the 2nd windiest June on record, so far!  Plus, dew point temperatures have been lower than average resulting in relative humidities staying quite low during the heat of the day.  That has worsened the drought.



But, at least for now, the humidity will be higher, temperatures lower and like I stated several more chances for thunderstorms.

Going into July, I think there may be a couple of good chances for thunderstorms but I'm afraid those chances may not be enough to alleviate the drought. In fact, here is the latest outlook:



Let's see how this next 7-10 days shakes out.  IF, that's a big if, thunderstorms can be widespread enough with generous rain then this may mitigate the drought impacts at least a little.  I'm only very slightly optimistic about that.  BTW - August 13-14 - could it be another good chance for precipitation?

Here is the precipitation outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through next Friday.



I'll do my best to update towards the end of next week, say ~June 26.