Updated - June 19, 2020

In the previous post I did on May 31 (click here), I discussed the ongoing and expanding drought.  I had concerns then and still do today, even though we will be in a "wet" pattern for the next week. 

On February 24 I made a forecast that June 18-19 would be a period that there would either be an outbreak of severe weather or there would be excessive rains!  I then posted in this blog on April 22 about that same period.  This morning (19th) there was a widespread precipitation event that covered much of the central U.S..  At the Dodge City airport this morning there was 2.27 inches of rain in about 2 hours.  There weren't any official reports as of this writing, but it appears that a few 3-4 inch amounts were observed.  Did everyone get that much rain?  Of course not, but there were good rains across much of the area.  And, for a morning event - that is pretty impressive!  Another round is possible this Friday night spreading in from eastern Colorado.  Beyond tonight, there will be yet another couple of rounds through the middle to latter part of next week.  Thus, the earlier thinking that the 2nd half of June could see above normal rainfall is still in play.  Unfortunately, it might be back to a dry stretch after that.

What has really been hurting things is the excessive and persistent wind!   Through June 18, the average wind at Dodge City was 18.7 MPH (that is an average of hourly observations every day) and this is the 2nd windiest June on record, so far!  Plus, dew point temperatures have been lower than average resulting in relative humidities staying quite low during the heat of the day.  That has worsened the drought.



But, at least for now, the humidity will be higher, temperatures lower and like I stated several more chances for thunderstorms.

Going into July, I think there may be a couple of good chances for thunderstorms but I'm afraid those chances may not be enough to alleviate the drought. In fact, here is the latest outlook:



Let's see how this next 7-10 days shakes out.  IF, that's a big if, thunderstorms can be widespread enough with generous rain then this may mitigate the drought impacts at least a little.  I'm only very slightly optimistic about that.  BTW - August 13-14 - could it be another good chance for precipitation?

Here is the precipitation outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through next Friday.



I'll do my best to update towards the end of next week, say ~June 26.