Update 3/6/17

This weather pattern is looking ugly!  On this mornings satellite image...

There was a vigorous upper level low moving out of southeast Wyoming which will bring blizzard conditions to the northern plains as it lifts out towards that region.  The associated surface features will bring severe weather to the far eastern plains and into the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. Unfortunately for the high plains the system will bring high wind (and perhaps damaging gusts this Monday afternoon), very low humidity and mild/warm daytime temperatures.  This will do nothing but accentuate the fire potential and continue to dry out the top several inches of the soil. With the tremendous amount of "fuel" (grasses), the potential for massive and out-of-control fires is extremely high!

The good news is that moisture from the Gulf Of Mexico remains readily available and will continue that trend into the growing season.  The bad news is that it is not making it back far enough west to benefit the high plains as they weather systems move out of the Rockies.  Also, the bad news is that this readily available GOM moisture has added to the severe weather threats farther east with yet another outbreak expected today and Tuesday!

Back on January 25th in the post I did (you can read it by clicking here), I mentioned that the warmer than normal GOM waters would impact the weather from the fall into the spring.  As of early March, nothing will change in that thought as the season progresses.

Also in that January 25th post I reiterated what I had thought since fall.  That is, that I had a pretty good feeling that going into the growing season and continuing into the summer that warm periods would be longer and more intense than they were in 2016.  I also was leaning towards a drier than normal period.  But, I also had a brief stretch of time where I was finding just a glimmer of hope! Well, that glimmer didn't last long.

In that January 25th post, I was anticipating a mid-March storm based on the cycling nature of the pattern.  Lately on some of the long range computer model forecasts there has been a "hint" of a storm somewhere between the 11th and 16th across the central plains.  I have ZERO confidence in any of those solutions.  But, let's see what transpires during the next week.  If there is indeed a system and it goes across Nebraska or impacts the eastern plains and leaves the high plains high-and-dry, then it might very well get grim for the remainder of the early spring. 

For now, I really think that March will end up well below normal on precipitation and above normal on temperatures.  Based on the cycling nature of the pattern, mid-April into much of May could have closer to normal precipitation and temperatures. We better hope so because as the season transitions into June/July I'm afraid the heat will really start to crank up.  

I'll give it another couple of weeks before I try and get detailed on expected moisture and temperatures for the summer months, but early indications would suggest a diligent plan on water use will be critical for this growing season.  

Quick update 02/25/17

This will have to be quick.  I've been swamped again but should have time next week for a more in depth review of the atmosphere and outlook.

As expected this past storm impacted areas north of Kansas producing an significant blizzard across Nebraska and into Iowa and the upper midwest.  Kansas and the panhandles as usual got the wind. There was a few light showers around Thursday (and a few snow flakes Friday) but nothing of any significance.

Looking at the satellite image of the eastern Pacific...

What a mess of the flow!  There is a lot going on but I'm afraid the eventual weather for the high plains will be much of the same.  There was an upper low (the red L) and several strong upper level circulations (the red X's), but as these systems eventually move out into the plains there won't be much organization aloft,  There should be a small storm about mid-week (late Tuesday or Wednesday) that will bring a lot of wind again, colder temperatures (after a brief "warm-up") and some precipitation.  But I'm afraid that amounts of precip (whether it's rain or snow), won't be a lot. However, it's at least a chance or opportunity and I guess any amount will be better than nothing at all.

Here is the potential for precipitation through the 4th of March from the Weather Prediction Center, and it looks reasonable.

Later in the week or by Saturday there should be another surge of cold (below normal) but that too won't last that long.

I'll go into a more detailed look in the next post and start discussing the spring and summer outlook. I'm not liking what I'm seeing, but hopefully I can find some hope before I make the post.

Update 2/18/17

I'm missing my deadlines! I finally found a little time for an update. 

In the previous post I did on the 9th (read it by clicking here) I discussed a weather system that would likely pass south of the central U.S. and benefit mostly Oklahoma and Texas.  That did just about as expected.  There were a few areas in the high plains of Kansas that got some rain, but not a whole lot (the most I saw was 0.28").  Some areas got nothing more than sprinkles.

The atmosphere is still buzzing for some areas of the country.  California is getting battered again by a very wet storm and with several more lined up.  It's been my experience that when central and southern California get slammed with a storm, the plains usually benefit too.  But not this winter!  These storms have been reaching the west coast as mature systems and then they weaken as they move east before re-intensifying somewhere around the lower Mississippi Valley.  This time, it's just the way the atmosphere is set up.  Granted we had the huge storm in mid-January (and maybe that opportunity will return March), but for the most part the storms have been disorganized and in the wrong position for at least western Kansas to benefit.

Current situation (as of Saturday the 18th)...

Looking at the satellite image....

There was an upper low moving into Arkansas.  But, this was mostly a DRY system as moisture had been scoured out by the previous system that was already out to sea.   It became a non-factor for any weather for the high plains.  The next system was very wet and bringing a ton of moisture to the western U.S.  The center of the storm was just barely visible on the satellite image above.  But looking from the Pacific view...

The center of the this very wet storm pounding the western U.S. was moving east and southeast and centered near central Baja California.  But it was also starting to go through a weakening process.  It will bring showers and thunderstorms to the EASTERN parts of the central and southern plains Sunday night and Monday.   

Another system out in the Pacific north of Hawaii will bring more rains and snow to the western U.S. and will impact the central part of the country sometime around Thursday or Friday (23rd/24th).  But instead of going through a weakening phase, it looks like a temporary break in the pattern will allow it to main intensity or even strengthen.  The result will be a powerful storm in the central U.S.  BUT, there is much uncertainty on the eventual location.  It could be as far south as Kansas, but more than likely it will impact Nebraska/South Dakota and on east.  Blizzard conditions will likely occur in the cold sector (again most likely north of Kansas).  One aspect that will be common regardless of the eventual location will be a lot of wind.

Behind that late week storm, cold air will finally return to the high plains and could be present more times than not into early March.  As far as precipitation, there is at least a few opportunities showing up as we get towards the end of the month and into March.

If you have had the time to read a lot of posts I've done in the past, you would have read about how the atmosphere sets up in the fall and then cycles at various lengths throughout the fall, winter, spring and summer before eventually falling apart.  The weather will never be exactly the same, but trends can be forecast and therefore "most likely" scenarios can be presented.  The cycles will repeat with a periodicity of 30 to 70 days.  This years pattern of atmospheric flow looks like it's repeating between 58 and 62 days (maybe closer to 59).

The pattern is currently in the 3rd cycle of repeating.  I BUSTED big time on this 3rd cycle so far!  The beginning cycle brought record warmth during the fall.  The second cycle brought the brutally cold air in December.  This third cycle, so far, has brought a return of the general flow much like what occurred in October!  It may be the extremely robust MJO that threw this off.  I don't know.  The biggest part of the upper flow has been a  persistent in the jetstream pattern that keeps developing across the central part of the country.  That allowed for record warmth during the fall and that has repeated during the first part of this 3rd cycle for February.  

Now the question is will cycles 1, 3, 5 be the same while 2, 4 and 6 resemble each other?  Well, I'll talk more about that in the next post or two.  Regardless, there should be a cooling trend starting right after next weeks storm, and in general the pattern should be much cooler (colder) for 10 to 14 days.  I do know that there has been a westerly wind burst in the western Pacific that has caused the Southern Oscillation Index to absolutely crash.  This type of activity normally causes wild pattern changes across the U.S. about 2 weeks later.

BTW, here is a graph of temperature anomalies showing some of this cycling for Dodge City.  Again, it's not going to be exactly the same, but there are some stark similarities.  The biggest similarities occur in the upper part of the atmosphere.  The second cycle was colder (relative to normal departures) than the first.  The third cycle so far is very close to the first.

I'll shoot for another update late next week.

Update 02/09/17

In the past month or so in previous posts, I discussed the opportunity for much colder weather arriving between the 10th and 24th with the coldest centered around the 15th of this month.   In one of the posts I had even mentioned brutally cold air, much like occurred in December.   In the last post (read it by clicking here) I talked about some reasons why it was on track.  The biggest reason I gave was the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), that currently is very robust, especially given the supposed base state of a La Nina (although I still say it just barely reached that status depending on the indices that are used).  This MJO will be moving east/southeast in a spatial location of the tropics that would favor Arctic air into the U.S.

BUT, very similar to October the jet stream across the higher latitudes is countering this possibility. Instead of the bulk of the cold air moving into the states, it is instead being restricted to northern Canada and back over across Siberia and the Eurasia region aka what happened during the early fall!  I'm not discounting the possibility of the really cold stuff making it into the high plains later this month, but as of today it's not looking too likely.  We'll see.

The following map may seem confusing....


The green arrow represents the flow aloft (the jet stream) that was in place this 9th day of February.  It was also in this almost EXACT position back in October (around the 8th)! Back then all the cold air that had developed was restricted to far northern Canada and across Siberia, much like what is currently happening.   This was the "beginning" of the atmospheric pattern.  The yellow line/arrows on the above map represents the flow aloft that was in place in December (about 62 days after the beginning of the pattern).  That was enough to allow the brutally cold air to move into the high plains.   But now (again, almost 62 days after the December event) the flow resembles the October pattern.  If that holds, then there ought to be some pretty mild days coming up periodically through February.   The first will be the ridiculous temperatures that are expected this Friday and Saturday!

What about precipitation?  In a couple of posts ago I thought there would be several opportunities this month, and I haven't changed my mind yet.

Looking at this mornings satellite image over the Pacific and western U.S.,

click for a larger version

One of the most notable features was the jet stream that was slamming into the Pacific Northwest with a HUGE ridge poking into southern Canada.  Associated with this jet stream was the red X, a storm system that was pretty strong.  The red dashed line is the projected path of this feature.  I put a couple of question marks by this path down in New Mexico.  There is a bit of uncertainty of the eventual path which will have an impact on expected weather across the plains.  Most likely it will take a path that will be too far south to bring Kansas and Nebraska much precipitation but it will be close!  Most likely Texas and Oklahoma will benefit.  In fact, here is the expected precipitation during the next 7 days (provided by the Weather Prediction Center)....


There still is a chance the system could be farther north, so I'm not discounting the possibility that it will be far enough north to bring some moisture to western Kansas and eastern Colorado.  Most likely that would be late Sunday or Monday.  Just don't count on it, but hope it does occur.

Beyond this system, the weather picture is a bit muddied.   That MJO, that I discussed above, could provide a surprise later next week and into the weekend.  We're not done with winter by any stretch.  I've heard rumblings about an early Spring.  Define what an early Spring is and I can address that.  At this very early stage, I would go as far as mentioning a late freeze (after climatological normal) later this spring.  More on that later.

I'll shoot for an update around the 14th/15th.

Update - February 1, 2017

In the last post I did on the 25th (read it by clicking here) I discussed the overall pattern that favored a warmup with just brief cold surges.  As many know, on Monday it got pretty mild with near record temperatures observed.   I just might say it was a great day to dust off the clubs and hit the links.  The brief cold surge that was expected, arrived today (Wednesday) and will persist into Friday.  But then another significant warmup is on tap for the weekend and into early next week.

In the previous post I mentioned that cold fronts would become more frequent and more intense after beyond the 4th with the coldest period expected to be between the 10th and 24th.  I also said the opportunity for a storm or two would be increasing during that period.  I might mention at this point, that someone from my office that I work at, posted on social media that the weather wouldn't become active again until late February or March and by then impacts wouldn't be as great because of the March sun.   I'm sure a lot of you "older" readers know that the biggest blizzards across the high plains occur in March and even well into April.  I'm not saying there will be or not be any active weather - it's just a really dangerous statement to make.

Anyway, looking at the latest satellite image....

click for a larger version

There was blocking in the upper level winds across the eastern Pacific and western U.S.. Even though there was a pretty strong storm off the California coast (note the red L), the flow is not conducive for that storm to stay healthy as it gradually moves east into the states.   Another feature on the map is the red X north of Alaska.  This system is forecast to intensify as it moves southeast but then there is some question to what happens.  It looks like it will deepen but then move west and "hang out" over the Gulf of Alaska.  Other changes should be taking place farther west as this process takes place during the next week.  Impacts, if any, for the plains will be later next week or weekend.

I don't show it on the satellite image, but there is a pretty robust Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Maritime Continent region of the west Pacific.  If it holds together, it should impact the central U.S. around mid-month.  Combine that with pretty cold air that is already in place across Canada (see the image below), the chance that Arctic air makes a return visit is pretty high. It's not guaranteed, but certainly is worth watching.  So, I stand by my statement that the coldest air during February should occur during the period from February 10th through 24th (most likely the coldest around the 15th give or take a couple of days).

As far as any organized storm, with Arctic air poised to move into the central part of the country and with the MJO, there does appear to be at least several opportunities for something towards the middle part of the February.  No guarantees, but again it's something to watch.

As far as the next 7 days....prospect for moisture is virtually NONE.

I'll try and update again around February 7-8.

1/25/2017 Update

In the previous post I did on the 14th (read it by clicking here), the main focus was on the winter storm that eventually crippled parts of southwest Kansas.  I think you would have to agree that the outlook was spot on in terms of the amount of precipitation and ice (location and amounts).

Ice accumulation (in general) and click for larger map

Liquid equivalent from the storm (click for larger version)

In terms of severity, the storm came no where close as the late December 2006 winter storm.  But, in some areas there was actually more tree damage than in 2006, i.e., in Ford County and Dodge City.  I really feel the severity of the tree damage in this storm was due to the extreme drought centered around 2011 which stressed trees.  Plus, it had been 10 years and the stressed trees had not been trimmed.

Looking ahead....

The afternoon satellite image from the west coast view showed an interesting pattern. (click for a larger version)

The jetstream across the Pacific Ocean basin remains active and strong.  But unlike the past 3 weeks, it is now shifting energy north into Alaska and northern Canada.  There was an upper level ridge centered over western Canada.  Normally this would indicate brutally cold air poised to move into the U.S., but this time there is NOT a powerful upper storm across eastern Canada or the Great Lakes.  There was a storm across Iowa which brought very heavy snow to the Dakotas and into Minnesota, but it is not strong enough to help get the really cold air down into the states.

The pattern for the next week to 10 days will favor a warmup.  There might be a brief cold surge due to the snowpack across the northern plains, but in general look for normal to above normal temperatures, say until about February 4.   As far as precipitation, none to very little should be expected.

Beyond the 4th, the pattern that we had in December should be returning so that cold fronts will become more frequent and more intense.  I think the coldest period will be between February 10 and 24.  There should be a chance that the brutal temperatures that occurred in December will be possible again during that time-frame.  The opportunity for a storm or two should also be increasing.  I will be very surprised if February precipitation ends up below normal across the high plains.  The normal precipitation is not that high so it would take only one good storm. Temperatures should be near normal to a little below (again with a very cold period mixed in).

The Arctic Oscillation would also support that notion of a little colder.  Generally when the index value is positive, the big cold surges are less frequent as pressures are lower than average.  But when the index goes negative and pressures rise, the likelihood of Arctic air into the states is enhanced.  But sometimes the air goes into Europe, Asia and Siberia instead (like it did during the fall).  Forecasts are in grey, and often are not too accurate so we'll see.

A big player in the northern hemisphere pattern has got to be the rapid cooling that has taken place across the northern Pacific since October.

Plus, there really has NOT been a full fledged La Nina like a lot of "experts" claimed was going to happen this winter.  Remember what they said?  Because of La Nina, California was going to continue to have an extreme drought.  LA has had one of it's wettest winters in recent memory. The snowpack in the California Sierra high country is at record levels!

In addition, the Gulf Of Mexico waters continue to be above normal.  This has already impacted the weather at times during the Fall and Winter (Christmas Day tornadoes) and will likely continue to do so as Spring approaches.

As many of you know, I have had a pretty good feeling that going into the growing season and summer that the warm periods will be longer and more intense than they were during 2016.  I also was leaning towards a drier than normal period (on average for most areas).  However, lately my confidence in the drier outlook has decreased a little.  There are conflicting indicators.  There are some that point to at least normal if not above normal precipitation going into the summer.  But there are also indicators that support generally dry weather with increasing drought concerns.  I'm torn right now and just can't say with any confidence.

I need to see how February shakes out.  Plus, I "think" there should be a storm around mid-March.  IF there is indeed a storm around then, and IF it moves across Nebraska and northern Kansas then I might be more inclined to go with that drier outlook (I have reasons).  But, IF it does occur around mid-March and IF it takes a more southern route, I could lean towards a more optimistic outlook.

Stay tuned....(I'll shoot for another post around Feb 1-3)

Quick update - 01/14/2017

There is a lot to discuss for later in this month and going into February but since I was tied up much of this last week, I will need some time to look at some data.  First things first...

As has been well advertised for the past 6 or 7 days, a potentially crippling storm is STILL headed this way for much of the central plains.  I say STILL because there have been a bunch of folks (primarily down in OKC) that have already (yesterday) poo pooed this storm, well before the expected arrival of the main storm.  There were numerous accidents in Wichita and KC yesterday evening from the first bit of energy that came out.   I'm already hearing grumblings this Saturday morning.  For parts of the high plains it's developing with icing across the panhandles.

This morning the satellite image clearly showed where the storm was.

click for a larger image
The upper part of the system had dropped all the way south off the coast of northern Baja California.  This is serving to tap into tropical moisture (as seen by the green arrow coming up and moving towards the central plains).  This system will NOT lack for surface/mid level/boundary layer moisture.  The big question remains the intensity and duration of freezing rain.  The dashed red line is the projected path of the storm.  Loads of moisture will be lifted over the cold air that is in place.  Speaking of which, the pattern is NOT a cold one.  We got most of all the recent cold (past 3 days) from a huge snowpack that is in place across the northern plains and southern Canada.

I don't recall computer forecast models (not just one) being so consistent in the projected outcome of this storm.  As the upper storm (the red L) gets into the upper balloon network, things may change a bit.  Currently it looks like the bullseye has shifted slightly south. But the amount of moisture that falls across a large chunk of the area will be significant.  Here is one forecast provided by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) through the upcoming week:

click for a larger version

So, the impacts.  There will definitely be a battle ground between freezing rain and what will eventually be plain ol' rain.  All areas will start out with freezing rain (liquid turning to instant ice as it hits the surface/trees/power lines, etc).  But as the system lifts out towards Oklahoma and Kansas, I think it draws "warm" air north and flips the freezing to above.  But where this ends up is a impossible to say, but most likely from OKC to near KC (and maybe as far west as Wichita).  Just a degree difference will make or break.  There is simply NO way to be accurate with that prediction.  That National Weather Service will stay on top of that so monitor weather.gov and their Facebook and Twitter pages.  The potential exists for 1 inch accumulation or more of clear ice.  Most likely area for this appears to be from like Guymon through Dodge City and to Great Bend and Larned.  But other areas will have extensive ice too.  Significant snow should be limited to areas of east central and northeast Colorado but as storm departs other areas will get just a little snow too, maybe.

Regardless of the amount of ice that accumulates, this will be a very wet system bringing huge amounts of moisture.  Beyond this storm, there is potentially another system that could impact the high plains by the end of the week or next weekend.  If you go back to the satellite image, that potential storm is not showing up but is associated with the system denoted with the red L on the far left hand side.  What produced that storm will produce more.  I need some time to analyze that.  Unfortunately, I'll be pretty busy next week doing three presentations and then will be at the Winter Expo in Dodge City from Friday though Sunday.  I think now through the end of the month will be critical for determining what to expect for the remainder of the winter and going into the growing season.  I'll address that after we get through this period.