1/25/2017 Update

In the previous post I did on the 14th (read it by clicking here), the main focus was on the winter storm that eventually crippled parts of southwest Kansas.  I think you would have to agree that the outlook was spot on in terms of the amount of precipitation and ice (location and amounts).

Ice accumulation (in general) and click for larger map

Liquid equivalent from the storm (click for larger version)

In terms of severity, the storm came no where close as the late December 2006 winter storm.  But, in some areas there was actually more tree damage than in 2006, i.e., in Ford County and Dodge City.  I really feel the severity of the tree damage in this storm was due to the extreme drought centered around 2011 which stressed trees.  Plus, it had been 10 years and the stressed trees had not been trimmed.

Looking ahead....

The afternoon satellite image from the west coast view showed an interesting pattern. (click for a larger version)

The jetstream across the Pacific Ocean basin remains active and strong.  But unlike the past 3 weeks, it is now shifting energy north into Alaska and northern Canada.  There was an upper level ridge centered over western Canada.  Normally this would indicate brutally cold air poised to move into the U.S., but this time there is NOT a powerful upper storm across eastern Canada or the Great Lakes.  There was a storm across Iowa which brought very heavy snow to the Dakotas and into Minnesota, but it is not strong enough to help get the really cold air down into the states.

The pattern for the next week to 10 days will favor a warmup.  There might be a brief cold surge due to the snowpack across the northern plains, but in general look for normal to above normal temperatures, say until about February 4.   As far as precipitation, none to very little should be expected.

Beyond the 4th, the pattern that we had in December should be returning so that cold fronts will become more frequent and more intense.  I think the coldest period will be between February 10 and 24.  There should be a chance that the brutal temperatures that occurred in December will be possible again during that time-frame.  The opportunity for a storm or two should also be increasing.  I will be very surprised if February precipitation ends up below normal across the high plains.  The normal precipitation is not that high so it would take only one good storm. Temperatures should be near normal to a little below (again with a very cold period mixed in).

The Arctic Oscillation would also support that notion of a little colder.  Generally when the index value is positive, the big cold surges are less frequent as pressures are lower than average.  But when the index goes negative and pressures rise, the likelihood of Arctic air into the states is enhanced.  But sometimes the air goes into Europe, Asia and Siberia instead (like it did during the fall).  Forecasts are in grey, and often are not too accurate so we'll see.

A big player in the northern hemisphere pattern has got to be the rapid cooling that has taken place across the northern Pacific since October.

Plus, there really has NOT been a full fledged La Nina like a lot of "experts" claimed was going to happen this winter.  Remember what they said?  Because of La Nina, California was going to continue to have an extreme drought.  LA has had one of it's wettest winters in recent memory. The snowpack in the California Sierra high country is at record levels!

In addition, the Gulf Of Mexico waters continue to be above normal.  This has already impacted the weather at times during the Fall and Winter (Christmas Day tornadoes) and will likely continue to do so as Spring approaches.

As many of you know, I have had a pretty good feeling that going into the growing season and summer that the warm periods will be longer and more intense than they were during 2016.  I also was leaning towards a drier than normal period (on average for most areas).  However, lately my confidence in the drier outlook has decreased a little.  There are conflicting indicators.  There are some that point to at least normal if not above normal precipitation going into the summer.  But there are also indicators that support generally dry weather with increasing drought concerns.  I'm torn right now and just can't say with any confidence.

I need to see how February shakes out.  Plus, I "think" there should be a storm around mid-March.  IF there is indeed a storm around then, and IF it moves across Nebraska and northern Kansas then I might be more inclined to go with that drier outlook (I have reasons).  But, IF it does occur around mid-March and IF it takes a more southern route, I could lean towards a more optimistic outlook.

Stay tuned....(I'll shoot for another post around Feb 1-3)