Update - February 1, 2017

In the last post I did on the 25th (read it by clicking here) I discussed the overall pattern that favored a warmup with just brief cold surges.  As many know, on Monday it got pretty mild with near record temperatures observed.   I just might say it was a great day to dust off the clubs and hit the links.  The brief cold surge that was expected, arrived today (Wednesday) and will persist into Friday.  But then another significant warmup is on tap for the weekend and into early next week.

In the previous post I mentioned that cold fronts would become more frequent and more intense after beyond the 4th with the coldest period expected to be between the 10th and 24th.  I also said the opportunity for a storm or two would be increasing during that period.  I might mention at this point, that someone from my office that I work at, posted on social media that the weather wouldn't become active again until late February or March and by then impacts wouldn't be as great because of the March sun.   I'm sure a lot of you "older" readers know that the biggest blizzards across the high plains occur in March and even well into April.  I'm not saying there will be or not be any active weather - it's just a really dangerous statement to make.

Anyway, looking at the latest satellite image....

click for a larger version

There was blocking in the upper level winds across the eastern Pacific and western U.S.. Even though there was a pretty strong storm off the California coast (note the red L), the flow is not conducive for that storm to stay healthy as it gradually moves east into the states.   Another feature on the map is the red X north of Alaska.  This system is forecast to intensify as it moves southeast but then there is some question to what happens.  It looks like it will deepen but then move west and "hang out" over the Gulf of Alaska.  Other changes should be taking place farther west as this process takes place during the next week.  Impacts, if any, for the plains will be later next week or weekend.

I don't show it on the satellite image, but there is a pretty robust Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Maritime Continent region of the west Pacific.  If it holds together, it should impact the central U.S. around mid-month.  Combine that with pretty cold air that is already in place across Canada (see the image below), the chance that Arctic air makes a return visit is pretty high. It's not guaranteed, but certainly is worth watching.  So, I stand by my statement that the coldest air during February should occur during the period from February 10th through 24th (most likely the coldest around the 15th give or take a couple of days).

As far as any organized storm, with Arctic air poised to move into the central part of the country and with the MJO, there does appear to be at least several opportunities for something towards the middle part of the February.  No guarantees, but again it's something to watch.

As far as the next 7 days....prospect for moisture is virtually NONE.

I'll try and update again around February 7-8.