Quick update - 06/11/15

Please read the post I did on Tuesday (click here) for the background synoptic situation pertaining to the heavy rainfall event that is unfolding.

In the previous post I discussed the anomalously high amount of water vapor was being drawn north into the U.S., as much as 300 percent of normal.  That hasn't changed today, except that the deep tropical moisture is now farther north and spreading east.  Click for a larger map.

The upper storm that had been west and southwest of  Los Angeles, CA was now moving toward the Rockies (the "L" near Las Vegas). 

 
At the same time a cold front was dropping into the western high plains.  The stage is set for several days of widespread showers and thunderstorms.  With the atmospheric setup, a lot of the storms will have high rainfall efficiency.  Even as this aforementioned system decays/weakens as it moves into the plains, the atmosphere could remain unstable enough for additional rounds of thunderstorms into next week.  All weather computer models made available have been consistently wet with varying amounts of rainfall.  Each model will have a different solution in both quantity and spatial locations.  But the bottom line, heavy rainfall potential is exists.  Just as an example of the output from one of the models (GFS), look at what it predicted (from last nights iteration)!  This is it's prediction for rainfall accumulation through the end of next week.

DO NOT TAKE THE AMOUNTS OR LOCATOINS AS GOSPEL TRUTH!

 Each time these computer models are run (every maximum of six hours), the location of the heaviest rains shifts in location.  The extreme amounts of rain (13+) is likely overdone in an areal sense,although an isolated spot could get close to that over the next week.

There are two areas of concern during the next 48 hours.  The highest concern is probably along the continental divide and out into the eastern plains of Colorado.   The heavy rains will accentuate the snowmelt producing some serious flooding.  Into Kansas and the panhandles of TX and OK the excessive rains may also cause flooding concerns.  Plus, any planting of fall crops will come to a halt and certainly the early harvest of the winter wheat.   If anything close to the above map comes to fruition, there will be fields under water for weeks.