Wettnes Shifts North - For Now (June 1, 2015)

The month of May - what a month!  As discussed often in this blog during the past 4 to 6 weeks and expected, this past month was a record setter at many locations in regards to rainfall and flooding.  Because of extremely heavy rains, many rivers reached record levels and unfortunately resulted in fatalities and copious amounts of damage.

The largest official amount I saw was for a location 8 miles east-southeast of Norman Oklahoma that recorded 29.89 inches...just for May!  In western Kansas there appeared to be many locations that had between 10 and 15 inches.  The largest amount officially recorded was just north-northwest of Dodge City that had 12.35".  At the airport in Dodge City, the official measurement was 10.33" and was the second wettest May on record.

Click on the following map for a larger version....

 

 For many areas this was 400 to 600 percent of normal, which is incredible!

During just the past weekend, the pattern was changing.  We will see a more typical early June jet stream and subsequent weather, at least for the next 1 to 2 weeks.  For the most part, there will be a lack of widespread and significant rainfall across Texas and Oklahoma.  Temperatures will be warming, but there will be a lot of moderation due to the water and explosive vegetative growth.

As the pattern shifts, the significant and widespread precipitation will shift into the northern plains but still be close to northern Kansas.  The Weather Prediction Center offers the following as a forecast and possibility during the next 7 days (through early June 8)...

 So, is that it?  In a typical early summer, this pattern shift would probably indicate the summer regime was commencing.  However, this year because of the extreme wettness across the central and southern plains, I've got to believe there will be some feedback mechanisms (from the surface to the atmosphere) that will take place.  Plus, the overall hemispheric flow of air should eventually transition back into what we just had, only it will be the summer version.  So, even though I agree with the above precipitation map above, I think that might only be temporary.  

The first clue might be what is happening in the eastern Tropical Pacific.  There are two tropical systems already!  One (Andres) is a hurricane and the second (Blanca) a tropical storm.  There is "some"  possibility that they will eventually turn northeast towards the SW U.S..  If they track this way, then all bets are off about a dry southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.  I'm not buying into it yet, but will be watching closely.   

There will still be scattered convection across the plains, during this "dryer" period, it just won't be nearly as widespread as recent weeks.  Plus temperatures will be much warmer so that we will finally see some decent growing degree days (units).

The pattern this summer will be interesting to say the least.  Although June will be dryer than May, it could still end up normal to above normal.  Keep in mind that June is typically the wettest month of the year across the plains.   A lot of the long term climate models are indicating a response to the growing El Nino, in that some of the wetness may very well last throughout the entire summer.  More on that later.