Build an Ark and plant some rice - Updated June 9, 2015

In the previous post I did on the 6th (read that post by clicking here) I discussed the exceptional rains that fell in May across much of the central U.S. and the outlook for additional precipitation, especially for the later part of this week and into next.  As of this morning (9th), the atmosphere is certainly coming together to make that a reality.  And I have some concerns.

First, in that previous post I talked about Hurricane Blanca.  That unusually strong (for early June) and land impacting hurricane came ashore across the Baja of California and has now almost entirely dissipated.  But, it has moistened up the atmosphere across the southwest U.S., to a tune of 300 percent of normal! This is extremely unusual for this time of year.  A Precipitable Water Vapor map, which follows, is a measure of the amount of moisture in the air from surface to the top of the troposphere.  Click for a larger version.

One reason why there should be concern is that this amount of moisture, while being very unusual for this time of year, will be made available for thunderstorms, not only across the plains but also across the high country of the Rockies.  Precipitation efficiency in these storms will be high meaning that heavy rains will be likely.  Snow melt is just peaking (with a lot of snow still up high) and if these storms occur over the basins of the melting snow then flooding (possibly major) will be highly likely!

Into the plains, there should also be heavy rain producing thunderstorms from late Wednesday into next week.  Not only from the remnants from Blanca, but from other weather systems that will be tracking east.  Look at the satellite image.  There is one particular storm just west of LA, California.  Another is southwest of that.  Both will be slowly tracking towards the center of the country during the next week to 10 days.  Excessive rains falling on river basins that are already running high may create some serious flooding!  Obviously this will also come at a time that wheat will be maturing and will disrupt any late plantings of sorghum or beans.

Although specific details will be impossible to predict, overall there should be widespread thunderstorms off and on during the period across the central part of the country.  The Weather Prediction Center forecast for average precipitation into early next Tuesday is pretty impressive, and for what its worth, is probably a pretty good approximation.  That is a lot of rain for areas that had record or near record May rainfall!  NOTE:  NOT ALL LOCATIONS HIGHLIGHTED WILL SEE THIS MUCH RAINFALL!

Even beyond next Tuesday there will be additional rainfall.  In fact, several  of the long range computer models generate a ridiculous amount of rainfall through June 17th for some locations, and there is meteorological reasoning to believe it!