Drying out across the high plains - but look out to the east (updated 6/15/15)

In the past few posts there was much discussion about copious amounts of rainfall that was possible.  During the past 7 days there was excessive rainfall!  (click for a larger version)

 

That map would typically look like an entire months worth!  Some areas had a ton of rain while others generally missed out on the heavier amounts.

There are now changes taking place across the northern hemisphere which will bring a drying trend, at least to the high plains.  The jet stream will be become more westerly with time and will shift north.  Although there will STILL be thunderstorms scattered across the plains, the spatial coverage will be decreasing.  There will be one or two higher chances - say mid week and late in the weekend.

However, now attention is drawn to a tropical system gaining strength over the Gulf of Mexico.  Although it won't become a hurricane, what it will become is a tremendous rain producer.

Looking at the satellite...

There is general high pressure building over the south tip of Texas.  North of that high the flow is from south to north and there was a small disturbance across southwest Texas.  This "might" produce more thunderstorms late Monday into early Tuesday moving up into south central Kansas.  The chance is small.  More importantly is the "L" over the gulf. This is the tropical system that will likely become at Tropical Storm before moving ashore.  There is a VERY high amount of moisture available for this system.  Thus, there will no doubt be copious amounts of rainfall along the track of this system during the week as it moves into Missouri.  Some areas will receive enough rain to cause extensive flooding, unfortunately.

CAUTION!

The eventual track of this tropical system is not set in stone.  Here are possible solutions from various forecast models:

The point with a map like the one above is that the threat of heavy rain could be farther west than forecast OR it could end up farther east.  The western and eastern edges will be in the "uncertain" areas.  The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) offers the following outlook for the amount of rain through the week:

The forecast from WPC basically ignores the possibility of the tropical system tracking farther west, like some of the solutions in the track map have.  If this is just based on historical tracks for this time of the year, then the outlook given by WPC is probably not too bad.  At this point, that is what I would lean toward.

I'll try and update in a few days...