Update - 10/18/19

The weather pattern continues to change across the high plains - and not necessarily in favor of crop producers!  It is VERY early in the stages of the "new" pattern that will persist into late summer of 2020.  If you look for a winter outlook on the internet, you'll see everything!  Keep in mind that many of the authors of those outlooks are non-meteorologists and are in high school (I know this for a fact)!  The "official" NOAA outlook came out yesterday, and even those folks misrepresented or misunderstood their very only maps!  Ugh!





What the maps indicate for the high plains is for the odds tilted in favor of above normal temperatures for the entire period of December 1st through February 29th (yes, a leap year). Only odds of this happening!  Plus, it doesn't give any information of just how much above - even if it will be.

On Precipitation for the high plains the odds are tilted in favor of above normal precipitation across the northern portions of the high plains.  For the remainder of the high plains there is NO tilt in favor of below or above!  It really doesn't matter.  The outlook is based almost entirely of a composite of ENSO (El Nino/La Nino/Neutral) neutral conditions.  A composite!  An average of years with similar Equatorial Pacific water temperatures!  When is the weather around here ever average?

Other outlooks you may be seeing are based on who knows what.  Some are probably done to get you to click on their graphic (click bait).  Are any of them going to be right?  Yeah, probably but by chance?  Do the odds favor what NOAA put out?  Yes, but ONLY based on ENSO conditions!  So, if ENSO conditions end up being the driving force, then that might be a pretty good outlook.  But, will ENSO be the driving force for this new weather pattern?  I can't say at this point - there is NO evidence at this point.

What do I think will happen?  Go back from the beginning of this blog.  There is simply NO concrete evidence of what to expect this early in the fall.  Remember, the new pattern just started.  I could give you my gut feeling.   I might in the next post or two.

Here is what I wrote in the last post I did on the 9th (you can read all of it by clicking here)...

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Remember, early fall is a tricky time to make a long range outlook.  Having said that, some of the signals across the western Pacific point to a possible increase in opportunities for more precipitation starting late next week.  No computer models are indicating much of anything for the high plains  through the 25th of this month.  But, I will be highly surprised if we don't go into a period of increased thunderstorm activity and mild/warm temperatures by the 18th.  The main issue I see is getting Gulf moisture back this far if there are frequent fronts.  Having said that, the best opportunities will be east of the 100th meridian (not high plains but central and eastern plains).

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So, I'm not going to say at this point because I'd likely have to change my thinking within a month of so anyway.   

That last part of the paragraph above - No computer models are indicating much of anything for the high plains  through the 25th of this month.  But, I will be highly surprised if we don't go into a period of increased thunderstorm activity and mild/warm temperatures by the 18th.  The main issue I see is getting Gulf moisture back this far if there are frequent fronts.  Having said that, the best opportunities will be east of the 100th meridian (not high plains but central and eastern plains). That is actually working out just about right.  There will be a system (cold front and then upper level system) coming through this evening that should produce scattered thunderstorms.  The issue, as I suspected, is a lack of good gulf moisture.  One reason?  The development, in the Gulf of Mexico, of a tropical storm "robbing" good inflow of moisture into the central U.S.. I hope a system in the Gulf doesn't repeat too many times this winter.   Here was the latest satellite....



The front will be associated with the upper system (red X) moving out of the Rockies.  Even with the lack of good Gulf moisture, a few will get some good rains across Kansas but the majority will not.

Beyond this current system the forecast will be very tricky.   Looking at the western Pacific Ocean area....

 

The weather is actually very active which could impact the high plains later next week and into the weekend - and perhaps into the first few days of November.  First there were three tropical systems tracking west and northwest towards Asia.  The contribution to the Jetstream that is and will occur, will have downstream amplification that could (I really should say "will") cause amplification across the central Rockies around mid-week next week.  There should be a pretty cold airmass that  sweep across the high plains centered on Thursday (may be Wednesday, may hold off until Friday) that will bring below freezing temperatures again.  Depending on just where this amplification occurs, there will be a large range of possibilities for the high plains from nothing but dry, cold, and windy to colder with rain and snow.  Start checking local forecasts early next week for those possibilities. 

Another important feature on the satellite above is the MJO across the Indian Ocean.  It is not robust but it was impacting the jetstream at higher latitudes.  Most computer models have this system dying out before it gets too far east.  That is questionable but a distinct possibility.  The eventual evolution will have HUGE implications on the weather in early/mid November.  Stay tuned for later posts about that because I see an opportunity for MUCH below normal temperatures and precipitation during that time frame - albeit with very low confidence at this point.  If that MJO continues, confidence increases.

Finally, here is the 7 day precipitation outlook from the Weather Prediction Center...

 
The precipitation in Kansas that is on the map is solely from the activity tonight (Friday night) and into Saturday. 

I'll try and post again toward the end of next week.




 

Update - October 9, 2019

What a change in the weather!  In the last posting I did on September 28 (read it by clicking here) I was discussing the expected rainfall event for the plains.  It did occur about as expected but perhaps a little farther east than originally thought.  Here is the map of rainfall for the two week period (encompassing the majority of the event) ending yesterday morning....



That helped some on the expanding drought (eastern edge) for some but unfortunately not all.  Unfortunately for some there was excessive rainfall!

Here is the latest drought map.



Attention turns to this nasty change in the weather coming up.  In the previous post, I was NOT anticipating a killing freeze other than the northern plains and upper midwest.  There simply were NO signals as of September 28 that there would be a pattern shift to allow for what is about to happen.

Long time readers of this blog have heard this before.  The transition from Summer to Fall across the northern Hemisphere is a very tricky time to make long range weather predictions.  The westerlies (winds aloft) across the northern hemisphere start to increase in amplitude and at some point in early October start a wave harmonic with emphasis on locations of troughs and ridges changing from year-to-year.   These ridges and troughs are likely set based on atmospheric forcing that also changes every year.  I can only speculate on which area (oceans, landmass, tropics, etc.) will provide the greatest forcing this time around.  Once this wave harmonic has formed, it then propagates across the globe at various speeds.  This continues for about 10 1/2 to 11 1/2 months.

So, back to the September 28 posting where there were NO indications of this unseasonably cold that is happening or about to happen.  On the 28th, the "new" wave harmonic had not formed.  But now, we're in the very early stages of this new harmonic (pattern).  There was already anonymously cold air across Canada, just waiting for an excuse to be dislodged south.  That excuse appears to be a super typhoon out in the western Pacific.  Here is the latest satellite image showing that system (the bright white with a dark hole - the eye)....



This system was extremely strong and had influenced the jetstream leading to downstream amplification which ultimately was dislodging the cold air.  Farther downstream, the amplification was unseasonably strong across the northern Rockies with the center indicated by the red L on the following satellite....



BTW, this location of the upper trough and the amplitude of the cold air that built up just "may" be one part of the pattern we see this winter and next spring!  More on that in later posts.

The red X across southeast Kansas was a weak system on the southern periphery of the western U.S. dip in the winds aloft.  It brought scattered thunderstorms to much of the southeastern 1/2 of Kansas this Wednesday morning.

So back to this cold air.  At Noon today (Wednesday) there was quite a contrast across the central U.S....



The front separating this contrast was racing south and will overspread much of the high plains throughout Thursday.  The location of the associated surface low and upper system will favor the Rockies and into the northern Plains as far as precipitation goes.  The amount of snowfall, especially across parts of the western Corn Belt may be record breaking for this time of year.  For the high plains, we will be mostly on the dry side although there could be just a little bit of rain or even snow (insignificant).  The cold, however, will be record breaking for this early in the year.  Here are possible low temperatures expected by Friday morning....

Keep in mind, these temperatures will also be associated with a lot of wind so the freezing aspect will be much more extreme than normally experienced for fall systems.

The cold will linger into Saturday but then moderating temperatures can be expected into next week. 

Remember, early fall is a tricky time to make a long range outlook.  Having said that, some of the signals across the western Pacific point to a possible increase in opportunities for more precipitation starting late next week.  No computer models are indicating much of anything for the high plains  through the 25th of this month.  But, I will be highly surprised if we don't go into a period of increased thunderstorm activity and mild/warm temperatures by the 18th.  The main issue I see is getting Gulf moisture back this far if there are frequent fronts.  Having said that, the best opportunities will be east of the 100th meridian (not high plains but central and eastern plains).

Update - September 28, 2019

Apologies to those faithful followers of this blog.  As many of you know, these posts are done outside of my normal National Weather Service function, i.e., on my own time.  This past month or so has been particularly challenging for me - and my family. 

During this past 30 days, there continued to be ample to excessive rainfall across many areas that had received copious moisture for 2019.  But, unfortunately, there continued to be a region that missed out - again.  Here is a map of rainfall this past 30 days....

The drought monitor has really not changed a whole lot across the western high plains.  Maybe shifted a little west?  But the moderate drought persists across southwest Kansas.

I've done weather and climate presentations lately and I pointed out that signals and the general weather pattern suggested an increase in the opportunity for beneficial rains for the last days of September and going into early October.

Looking at this mornings satellite image....

There was an anomalously cold airmass (for late September) that had slipped south out of western Canada.  A very strong upper level low across the northwest U.S., has set the stage for perhaps record breaking snowfall (for September) across western Montana and adjacent higher terrain.  The fringe of this cold airmass has nudged into the plains this Saturday morning.  The boundary separating the very humid and warm airmass across Oklahoma and the colder air will produce a round of thunderstorms as an upper level disturbance (that red X on the satellite) moves into the central U.S..  Unfortunately, much of the drought area will miss out on that round.  However, it's not done!

The upper level low will continue to strengthen and drop south.  This evolution will tap into a tropical system south of Baja California.  As this all progresses, waves of "energy" and moisture will stream north and east.  It will be a tropical airmass overriding the surface boundary that will waffle north and south across the area.  The following map is the most likely area and amounts of precipitation expected through the end of next week, although the majority will fall by late Tuesday....

Don't take the amounts literally or the exact location. In fact the location of heavier rains is still uncertain as the eventual track of the surface boundary, upper level features and interactions with individual storms is unknown.  Regardless of the area of heaviest rains, there is a very high chance that excessive rainfall will occur at some locations.

BTW, I mentioned that this increased opportunity for beneficial rain was expected.  This notion was tied to the Madden Julian Oscillation and the conditions across the Pacific.  This would also give rise to a drier period by mid-month - and warm again!  At this point I don't see an early end to the growing season across the central plains.  The Northern plains and the upper midwest will most likely see a freeze from this pattern (by the end of next week).    I'm not seeing any indication of a freeze for the central and southern high plains earlier than a climatological normal.

This next week I'll dig into this weather pattern in more detail and go into discussion about the outlook going forward.  I most likely won't get a post done until around October 7 - at least that will be my goal.   It's possible an update will be done Wednesday (2nd).

No new posting until at least September 14

Update - August 22, 2019

The posting I did on August 2 (you can read that by clicking here), I discussed the upper level ridge that was centered across west Texas that had been in control of the weather for a while.  I anticipated that upper level high to weaken to shift south allowing beneficial rains to spread farther south.  That did happen during this past 2 weeks.

Here is a map of rainfall since that time...

You might notice that area on the map centered very near Dodge City that did not receive that much over this 2 week period.  This is basically the same area that has missed out during the past 30 days too! Hopefully this is just a random trend and isn't tied to atmospheric background forcing.  Although I won't post the map of the past 30 day rainfall, there is an area in Anderson county of east central Kansas that has received ~22 inches of rainfall!   Contrast that to areas west and southwest of dodge City that have had less than 1/2 inch during that time.

This lack of rain in this location of Kansas is translating to the drought monitor.

As I discussed in the previous posting earlier in the month, I don't know that this developing drought area will expand much - at least not quite yet.  But, I do have reasons to believe that by this time next year there could very well be a lot of yellow, brown and orange across the central U.S. - more on that late this fall after the new pattern gets going.  Maybe I'll change my mind at that point.

Looking at the satellite image from earlier this morning....

The upper level ridge has been suppressed well to the southeast and has continued to weaken.  There was a narrow stream of tropical moisture that was coming off a tropical disturbance across the Gulf of California.  That in part has helped and will continue to help feed local thunderstorms in producing copious rainfall.  But, at the same time, the lack of stronger winds aloft will make these areas of heavier precipitation relatively isolated (except for southeastern Kansas).

The winds aloft will strengthen just enough to allow a complex of thunderstorms to move out of the western high plains late Friday and Friday night (23rd).  I'm optimistic that the area that has missed the rainfall (in general) this past 30 days will finally get a pretty good amount.  I guess I should say "cautiously optimistic".  Fingers crossed.

For this next week, here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center (through next Thursday, the 29th)....

I'll try and update again next week.

Update - August 8, 2019

Since the last posting on the 11th of July (you can read that one by clicking here), the weather pattern has continued to transition to a summer regime across the central plains - at least for short bursts. 

During the mid-July period, but for only 4 days, afternoon temperatures got a little out of control across much of the area with readings from 102 to 108 across the high plains.  (BTW, in May when I was discussing the summer outlook, I was not expecting that hot of temperatures since I thought it would be too green and wet across the central U.S.).  Farther east the humidity was brutal, thanks in part to the flooding rains during the spring and early summer.  Then as expected, it cooled down for a week to 10 days.  The heat returned again during the last few days of the month.  I've seen a lot of posts (on social media) about how hot it was during July.   That is an  interesting statement, since  temperatures an average for July were below normal to normal for most locations and just a little above normal for the remainder of the area!  I guess it was the short bursts of very not weather (or maybe it was the humidity) that swayed the opinion. 

Here is a map of the July temperature departure for Kansas...



As is pretty typical, rainfall during the month varied tremendously across the high plains.  Some locations got virtually nothing while others got extreme amounts of rainfall!  When precipitation during the warm season comes via thunderstorms, this type of variability should be expected (not necessarily the extreme amounts that fell in Nebraska and parts of eastern Kansas).

Here is the July rainfall....



As for percent of normal....



You might notice that this area of extreme rainfall had received very heavy precipitation amounts several times since the spring.  These type of repeating events are tied to the pattern that set up last fall.

For the past 14 days (since July 24th), a very similar distribution has occurred (except for south central Nebraska)....



One weather phenomenon that developed over the summer has been the North American Monsoon.  The associated upper level ridge has been parked over west Texas, in general.  The "ring of fire" has been persistent.  However, a temporary weakening of this ridge and slight shift south has resulted in rainfall farther south.  Here is the map of rainfall this past 24 hours ending at 7 AM this Thursday morning (Aug 8)....




Unfortunately, this repeating pattern of rainfall that occurred also has a counterpart - the dry area!  As a result, the U.S. Drought monitor is beginning to be a little concerning...


Will this dry area intensify and expand during the next month or two? I have doubts that it will get too bad, at least just yet.  As mentioned, the upper level ridge was weakening slightly and shifting a little south.  This morning the satellite image showed the positioning of the high....



As a result of the slight weakening and shifting south, beneficial rains from storms should be farther south into next week.  That doesn't mean everyone will get rains with every opportunity, but at least there is hope for those that have been dry lately to receive some precipitation.  The following map shows the potential rainfall amounts through early next Thursday (from the Weather Prediction Center)....


One final thought....

I've already seen posts from different groups about what to expect this winter.  Seems a lot of these people try to be the "first".  But, for those long time readers of this post, you know that the pattern does not get established until the fall so there is really no way to know what will happen this soon.  The pattern that gets going will have no correlation to what is going on now.  If I could figure out what contribution forcing areas have on the new pattern, I might have some confidence on what to expect.  I could go off a hunch, but that would be just a WAG.  I could go off  all kinds of indicators that would only give a huge range of possibilities.

I might post something on a hunch later this month.  Check back later next week for hopefully the next posting.

Aug 6, 2019

I'm going to try and get an update posted no later than Thursday afternoon of this week.

Here is the link to the previous posting if you missed it (click here)