Update - July 11, 2019

Changes have definitely taken place!  Has the gravy train of rainfall ended?  Yes, at least for now.  In the previous post on the 3rd (you can read it by clicking here), I posted the map generated by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.  Here is that map valid for July 10 through 16....



I was not necessarily disagreeing as I was expecting increasing chances for thunderstorms the last 3 weeks of July.  But, obviously, this outlook for the 10-16 period will NOT verify - at ALL (except for perhaps the Rockies)!  What has happened?

You might have been made aware of a developing tropical system in the northern Gulf of Mexico.  That system can be viewed on this latest satellite image....



As of this posting Thursday afternoon, there was still uncertainty as to the strength by the time it reaches land (will it be a hurricane?), but it doesn't matter. What it will do is produce copious amounts of rainfall across much of the lower Mississippi Valley which will have a potential for a catastrophic result!  The exact track heading north is questionable but there will certainly be a high risk of catastrophic flooding.  Lake Pontchartrain is quite full (fuller to the prior landfall of Katrina) and the Ol' Miss is about 14 feet higher than it was with Katrina.  It will certainly be newsworthy.

Regardless, the impacts on the high plains will be nil, as far as rainfall.  But that takes us back to the question "what happened to the previous thinking from the 3rd of July"?

The Southern Oscillation Index (measure of sea level pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin) had crashed very recently - and in fact the 90 day average was as low as it's been since May of 2016! This occurrence can be tied to the weak El Nino (that appears to be strengthening).  In turn, energy propagation from the deep tropics in the Darwin-Tahiti area has festered the development of the tropical system in the northern Gulf.  The combination of the two have resulted in a strengthening upper level ridge across the southwest and central U.S., essentially shutting off much hope for rainfall across at least the plains and parts of the upper midwest - for an extended period of time!

But I guess with what has fallen since last June, we could use a break?  For the past week, here are the amounts of rainfall since the 4th (through this morning, the 11th)...



SIDE NOTE:  Remember that Cedar Bluff Reservoir prediction of reaching "full"?  There have been SO many systems this past six months that JUST BARELY missed the runoff basin.  Lately, the big hit that occurred over southern Nebraska as seen on the rainfall map, would in itself filled 'er up.  But perhaps it's not done just yet as there should be more opportunities later this month and perhaps into August.

Back to the satellite image...that stream of moisture heading north is the re-surging North American Monsoon should keep much of the Rockies in the wet pattern.  But, it doesn't look like much of any will drift into the eastern high plains anytime soon.  Here is the rainfall outlook through the end of the 18th....



For the remainder of the month - I'm expecting the upper ridge to break down a bit.  I would be highly perturbed if it doesn't as it would not fit the overall pattern that developed last fall.  Thus, I would expect a return of higher chances for thunderstorms during the last 7 days of the month (maybe a bit sooner).  Temperatures will still be moderated by the amount of vegetative growth.  Higher humidity will likely return.