Update - July 3, 2019

The "typical" summer weather pattern continued this past week.  Even though it has dried out for many locations and warmed up considerably (good for wheat harvest), temperatures have been moderated due to the general active vegetative growth and above normal soil moisture.   Dodge City has yet to reach 100 (98 was the hottest this past week).  Rainfall was less widespread, although those that got rain - well some got excessive rainfall!  Here is the map of rainfall amounts this past 7 days...


BTW, for June the overall amounts of rainfall were far less than May, but there were still areas that had excessive amounts.  Across the NWS Dodge City area, there was rain somewhere on almost every single day of June, it just wasn't as widespread.  Here is the map showing the percent of normal for the month:



Looking at this mornings satellite image...



The little red X's represent disturbances aloft.  Often in the summer time these disturbances are slow moving as they are removed from the jetstream winds (which is usually far to the north) and they are very difficult to track.  Each disturbance can cause thunderstorms near them on a daily basis, where ever they track.


In the previous post I did on the 25th (you can read that by clicking here), I was seeing hints that the last 3 weeks of July might see additional thunderstorms and possibly cooler weather.  The term cooler does not imply 70s and 80s, although there will probably be a few days in the 80s.  Back to the satellite image, the blue H across northern Mexico is the reflection of the typical North American Monsoon that has developing as it does each summer.  The stream of atmospheric moisture has not become robust just yet, but is poised to do so.   It typically enhances Rocky rainfall and to a lesser extent the high plains.

So, with the increasing monsoon flow and with periodic disturbances aloft, the opportunities for increasing amounts of convective activity (thunderstorms) across the high plains, the outlook for wetter and "cooler" as July progresses will ramp up.  The first "good" chance of that happening will be over this coming weekend (6th-7th).  Here is the early look of potential rainfall through early next Wednesday (from the Weather Prediction Center)...

And then the Climate Prediction Center issued the following outlook for the period July 10 through July 16, primarily for the 10th through the 12th....



I'm not sure how they came to this risk area or why (likely from computer model output).  I can't necessarily disagree as my thoughts have been for increasing chances for rainfall during the last 3 weeks of July.  IF the added rainfall occurs for July (and subsequent moderated temperatures), the likelihood of continued GDD's being below normal will continue.

I'll try and update later next week.