Update - August 22, 2019

The posting I did on August 2 (you can read that by clicking here), I discussed the upper level ridge that was centered across west Texas that had been in control of the weather for a while.  I anticipated that upper level high to weaken to shift south allowing beneficial rains to spread farther south.  That did happen during this past 2 weeks.

Here is a map of rainfall since that time...

You might notice that area on the map centered very near Dodge City that did not receive that much over this 2 week period.  This is basically the same area that has missed out during the past 30 days too! Hopefully this is just a random trend and isn't tied to atmospheric background forcing.  Although I won't post the map of the past 30 day rainfall, there is an area in Anderson county of east central Kansas that has received ~22 inches of rainfall!   Contrast that to areas west and southwest of dodge City that have had less than 1/2 inch during that time.

This lack of rain in this location of Kansas is translating to the drought monitor.

As I discussed in the previous posting earlier in the month, I don't know that this developing drought area will expand much - at least not quite yet.  But, I do have reasons to believe that by this time next year there could very well be a lot of yellow, brown and orange across the central U.S. - more on that late this fall after the new pattern gets going.  Maybe I'll change my mind at that point.

Looking at the satellite image from earlier this morning....

The upper level ridge has been suppressed well to the southeast and has continued to weaken.  There was a narrow stream of tropical moisture that was coming off a tropical disturbance across the Gulf of California.  That in part has helped and will continue to help feed local thunderstorms in producing copious rainfall.  But, at the same time, the lack of stronger winds aloft will make these areas of heavier precipitation relatively isolated (except for southeastern Kansas).

The winds aloft will strengthen just enough to allow a complex of thunderstorms to move out of the western high plains late Friday and Friday night (23rd).  I'm optimistic that the area that has missed the rainfall (in general) this past 30 days will finally get a pretty good amount.  I guess I should say "cautiously optimistic".  Fingers crossed.

For this next week, here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center (through next Thursday, the 29th)....

I'll try and update again next week.