Update - 10/20/14

In the previous post (click here) I mentioned the quiet period that was expected.  Other than a few showers this past Saturday moving out of eastern New Mexico, it has been uneventful since the middle part of last week.

 I also had mentioned about a small chance for precipitation early this week.  That system is there (over southwest New Mexico Monday afternoon) and it will provide a chance for rain by late Wednesday through Thursday across the plains.

The satellite image below shows several features.  One such feature is the weakening tropical storm moving by Hawaii.   Former Hurricane Ana was moving northwest and poised to get caught up in the westerly flow which will take the remnants into the Pacific Northwest.  The green line you can see from left to right is an anomalously strong East Asian Jet stream that was transporting several storms towards the Pacific Northwest.  Those features will deposit copious amounts of precipitation from northern California to Washington.  Good news for them, but for the high plains there won't be much impact.

The chance for rain that I mentioned above will come from the weak system (denoted by the red X on the image above) that was over southwest New Mexico.  It will move slowly towards the central plains and will bring a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, centered on late Wednesday/early Thursday.  The Weather Predication Center offers the map below, which shows the potential rainfall for our area.  Not expecting heavy rains, but at least some rain.  (BTW, look at the amounts for the Pacific Northwest)!

Back to the satellite map above.  Do you see the blue line with arrows?  That is an extension of the polar jet stream.  That is really the first signs of winter and this jet stream is helping to deliver some near blizzard conditions to the north slopes of Alaska with temperatures expected to drop into the single digits.  We won't see any of that in the states for a while, but it is a start for that a general area (albeit a little late).

Speaking of cold weather, there is no sign of a widespread killing freeze across the high plains anytime soon, at least through the end of this month.  However I'm a little cautious in saying that as the aforementioned East Asian Jet is well extended and strong.  A little buckling could deliver Arctic air into the states within a week to 10 days (IF THERE WAS BUCKLING).  Something to keep an eye on.

Finally, my outlook for the remainder of the fall, winter and spring will be posted sometime Wednesday or Thursday.

As always, remember these are my thoughts only and not an official discussion.

A quiet period? Update 10/15/14

In the last two posts I discussed a widespread precipitation event that was about to impact the high plains region.  There were two rains, one late on the 9th (Thursday night) and the other  late Sunday into Monday.  Also, if you go back to the post I did on the 30th of September I was discussing an active period from October 11-17 and that did come to pass but just a little sooner.  The second system that occurred late this past weekend brought very active weather to the eastern half of Kansas and then subsequently across most of the eastern half of the United States this week.  There were killer tornadoes, big hail, high winds and flooding rains in parts of the country, including Arkansas and Missouri.  Across the high plains the precipitation was much lighter as the system did not get organized until after it was passing through (but was in the process of rapidly developing).  The only element that did not occur was a widespread killing freeze.  It did get chilly with some freezes across the plains, but nothing widespread.  I will blog later next week on my thoughts for the late fall/winter/spring outlook and when we can expect the widespread "growing season" ending freeze. These two systems that just impacted the central U.S. "may" be a clue that I'm looking in to for later this year.  More on this later...

The following map shows the amounts of rain that fell this past 7 days, centered on Kansas.  There were very excessive rains in southeast Kansas with almost 10 inches observed!  Most of the region south of Interstate 70 received generous amounts.

On the following satellite image, there really isn't much going on across the central part of the country.  The big L southeast of Chicago is the remants of the system that moved through Kansas/Oklahoma late Sunday and Monday.  It hasn't made much progress.  Then there is Hurricane Gonzalo which is projected to come very close to Bermuda.  By the time it reaches that island the storm may be very intense and if the Bermuda takes a direct hit there will be catastrophic results.

Otherwise, there is not much to discuss on this map.

Our next opportunity for any moisture across the high plains will be perhaps as early as early next week.  But, the prospect looks slim at this time.  Also, it does not appear to be a major precipitation event, even IF it does occur.   I'll take a closer look at that chance in the next couple of days.  As I mentioned early in this post, I'll get out an extended outlook next week which will discuss what is in store into the spring.

Quick update - 10/09/14

See the previous post here.

The atmosphere is coming together to produce widespread measurable precipitation!  The only change to the earlier thinking is that just about all locations will receive rain from this several rounds that will move across the area tonight and Friday (and some areas into Friday night).  A lot of the area will receive very generous rain of  3/4 to 1 1/2 inches!  A few locations will receive less, and a few locations will receive more but on average this should be a pretty wet system.

One of the high resolution forecast models has a quite a bit of rain through early Friday morning with additional rain/thunder expected during the day Friday.  Don't take the numbers literally, but in general there should be some decent amounts!

Update 10/7/14

The past week has seen a continued transition into a typical fall pattern across North America, including tropical activity across the Pacific Ocean basin.  As of this afternoon there are two areas that will help impact the western High Plains.  The first area is along the Gulf of California coast where Tropical Storm Simon resides.  The second area includes a super typhoon and other typhoons that will ultimately bring a change in a week to 10 days.  I might add that there are two other deep troughs (denoted by the L's on the map below) that will contribute to forecaster uncertainty during the next 7 to 10 days as the pattern gets "messy" and active.

First Simon....although not as strong as former Odile was, this system has the potential to bring widespread precipitation to much of the central U.S.   As of Tuesday afternoon the weakening system was headed north towards the northern reaches of the Gulf of California.




Now, you might remember that Odile did not deliver much to our local area.  Instead, it brought extremely large amounts of rainfall to southern New Mexico and west Texas (and parts of central Texas).  The remnants of Simon appear to be headed in a path that was initially similar to Odile.  See the earlier posts here and here.

Will Simon progress the same as Odile?  There are subtle differences in the flow regime and chances are a little better, at least as it currently appears, that the remnants of Simon might be a little more kind to our area in terms of producing rain.  This is NOT to say that there will be extremely heavy rains, but at least there should be some rain.  How much?  The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) branch of the National Weather Service offers the following solution:

If this solution comes to pass there will be heavy rainfall across Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and into the mid Mississippi valley.  Across much of the western high plains amounts could be generous too but not excessive.  I think that there will be rain, especially Thursday night and Friday, but unfortunately there may still be a few locations that "miss out".  I hope those that miss out have already had some of the rain that fell during the past 1 to 2 weeks. 

During the past 7 days most of the rain fell across the Missouri valley. There was at least some rain locally with the heaviest down near the Oklahoma border south of Ashland where one observer had over 3 inches.

Beyond the system this week, it could get interesting (if not confusing for forecasters) sometime next week.  The aforementioned typhoons across the western Pacific will likely cause a significant amplification in the jet stream coming into the U.S.  It's impossible to say what the impacts might be especially since it is unknown exactly where that amplification will occur.  Later in the fall and winter it will become more obvious but since the cold season pattern is just setting up, I just don't have much faith in where.  Point here is to stay tuned.  I'll try and update again towards the end of the week.  On the table is more precipitation and perhaps the first widespread freeze of the fall (there have been localized areas that have froze already).  

Update - September 30, 2014

In the last post (click here) I briefly discussed the substantial precipitation that was expected across the west and for some precipitation for the plains.  I also mentioned the possibility of severe weather.  Those that may have caught the news or surfed the net, there was very severe hail in the Denver area on Monday and there were severe weather reports all the way down into southern New Mexico.  

Today (Tuesday and Wednesday) there is a risk of more severe weather across the central and southern plains.  

Rainfall from the first system that ejected into the plains was very robust across northern Colorado, western Nebraska and into the northern plains.  In the local area there was also generous rainfall across about half of the area.  The map below shows the 24 hour precipitation that ended this Tuesday morning.

There will be a chance for additional rainfall through Thursday.  The best chance for the high plains will be Wednesday night and Thursday as another developing upper system moves out of the Rockies.  As of Tuesday afternoon this system (denoted by the red X on the map below) was moving into the Great Basin.  The first storm (denoted by the red L) will drive a cold front into Kansas and then this front will interact or act as a focus for rainfall as the Great Basin system moves out.  Rainfall will likely be heaviest across eastern Kansas but much of central High Plains should receive at least some rainfall by the end of the week.

This next map shows the possible precipitation amounts through early next Tuesday.

As the second Great Basin system moves out there will be some chilly air drop south behind it.  I would not be surprised to see low temperatures fall into the mid or upper 30s as far south as Dodge City and Elkhart by Saturday morning.  Freezing temperatures will be likely across the northern plains.

In the context of freezing temperatures, there has been a "killing" freeze across areas that normally see one by this time of year.  BTW, a "killing" freeze is one where temperatures fall to at least 28 degrees for several hours.  The following map shows where a killing freeze has already occurred.

...and this map shows the dates of the average first 28 degrees or colder of the fall...

For much of Kansas the first episode of 28 degrees or colder can vary considerably from year-to-year but the median date runs from October 11-20 across the northwest to November 1-10 across the south central and southeast.  Remember, this is for a "killing" freeze and not frost or light freeze.  

Looking ahead, I'm starting to see SOME indications of an active period from around October 11 - 17 and if this comes to pass I would bet there will be some pretty cold weather following in the wake of that period.  Pretty cold?  A killing freeze.  This scenario is just a possibility since right now there is NO computer model even remotely hinting that this could occur.   In addition to the cold, there SHOULD be an opportunity or two for more precipitation.  There will also be a chance or two for rain during the second week of October.

As we get deeper into October the weather may become increasingly active but confidence at this point is rather low.  I soon as I see a pattern start to evolve, I will put out the seasonal outlook.  Early indications based on some forcing locations across the northern hemisphere is for at least "normal" precipitation for the fall and winter across much of the area.  I'm tilting the odds in favor of a wetter verse dryer pattern. Temperatures may see some wild swings but the average into the winter should favor normal to below.

More later on the outlook - I've got to gather more data!

Remember this is not an official discussion - it's my thoughts only.  

Update - September 25, 2014

Due to being on travel and attending workshops and meetings this is a late update....

The big news during the past 7 to 10 days is what happened to the remnants of what was once Hurricane Odile that moved up the gulf of California and heavily damaged one of the Mexican resorts.   If you go back an look at the blog post I did on the 15th by clicking here you will see the discussion about what Odile might do.  At the time there was a "chance" that the remnants would curve east/northeast and head towards the central plains, including Oklahoma and Kansas.  There were concerns about the amount of precipitation that might occur.  As it turns out there was SO much convection (thunderstorms) that the latent heat release from those storms (and from interruptions from the mountains of New Mexico) that the storm turned more east and southeast!   It is probably a good thing too as rainfall from the remnants was EXTREMELY robust and there was a lot of flooding issues.   Look at the map of precipitation the past 7 days where there was over 20 inches across southeast New Mexico and west Texas!  WOW!

Across Kansas and adjacent states, the rainfall was more spotty.  Although, there were areas that did receive quite a bit of rain and most of this occurred late on the 23rd.

The rainfall across the southwest U.S. and into Kansas has continued to make a dent in the long term drought or in some cases completely alleviate it.

The Weather Prediction Branch (WPC) of the National Weather Service is indicating some substantial rains during the next 7 days across much of the western U.S.   WPC doesn't have a lot of precipitation across the regional area, but at least some.  There should be another front arrive in Kansas late in the weekend or first of next week so there should be at least a chance.  We'll have to watch that system carefully as the second season of severe weather will be ramping up and it's not out of the question that severe weather could occur during the first part of the week.  It's just too early to give much detail. 

The latter part of the week should see a significant cool down and  even freezing temperatures across the northern plains.  I'll address that in a post next week.  Then, into October some of the long range models are still indicating ample precipitation.  The "wet" computer model I've posted about lately is still indicating above normal precipitation (notice I said precipitation and not rain? hint hint).

With a bit more time on my hands I'll attempt the seasonal outlook in a blog by October 3.

Please feel free to share this blog.

Update - Monday, September 15, 2014

As predicted the cold shot last week was pretty substantial.  Across much of the midwest and plains states there were NUMEROUS record cold temperatures observed late last week.  In Kansas there were several sites that saw temperatures below freezing.  The coldest I saw in Kansas at an official NWS location was 31 degrees at Ness City.  It got down to 30 at a mesonet site near Jetmore!  High temperatures Friday were only in the 40s and 50s and across Wyoming and the western Dakota's there was heavy snow with as much as 10 inches reported!  I've talked briefly about this in previous posts but I "think" the cold was the result of the pattern that started last fall and was waning during the late summer.  In the same token the pattern that delivered the cold may be tied to forcing that has been in place across the northern Pacific that helped produce the long term pattern in the first place.  Hint - the forcing remains (and is likely to persist this winter).  I will do a fall/winter outlook later this month when I have more time to devote to the outlook.  Look for that outlook around the 24th-26th.

Rainfall this past week was most widespread across Colorado, the northern half of Kansas and into Missouri.  Since the 1st of September there have been quite a few areas that received some beneficial rains, especially across some of the driest areas of the drought. The following map shows the rainfall that has fallen:

The U.S. Drought Monitor continues to show improvement across the central and southern plains.

Back to the cold.  I'm guessing that the stretch of cold has set back the maturing of the sorghum?  How about the beans and corn?  As I mentioned in earlier posts, September should end up below normal on temperatures.  There will still be some very warm (and windy days) but those days will become less numerous.  As of this writing another significant cold front had moved across much of the area with temperatures only in the 50s.

The next big weather maker will likely be the remnants of Hurricane Odile that was moving into the Gulf of California Monday.  This Monday afternoons satellite image shows the massive amount of moisture associated with the hurricane. 

 
The remnants will help support very heavy rains across the southwest U.S. which has been hard hit this past month.  Currently it appears that the remnants will then move east into the central plains by the weekend and should enhance rainfall chances.

The Weather Prediction Center generated a map this afternoon which showed the possible rainfall amounts during the next 7 days.  The story here is additional significant rains across the drought stricken areas of the plains and even central and northern Texas!

In earlier posts I mentioned the possibility of September being above normal on rainfall.  If the remnants of the hurricane do in fact track as depicted, then yes the month will end up above normal.   One of the computer models (that really is not that accurate but depicts trends) continues to indicate a wet fall.

The map above shows just several ensemble (computer runs with slightly different initial conditions) iterations and most are wet into late October.

What about El Nino?  It is S L O W L Y developing or so it would appear.  Temperatures off the southern part of Australia (southern hemisphere) continue to cool and is increasing the ocean thermal circulations which is helping this warm event (El Nino) develop.

NOTE:  A prolonged period of negative values indicates an El Nino. 

I'll hopefully find some time to post again in a week.  Remember to share the link for this blog (if you find it useful anyway).   The link is:  swkswx.blogspot.com