Update - 10/20/14

In the previous post (click here) I mentioned the quiet period that was expected.  Other than a few showers this past Saturday moving out of eastern New Mexico, it has been uneventful since the middle part of last week.

 I also had mentioned about a small chance for precipitation early this week.  That system is there (over southwest New Mexico Monday afternoon) and it will provide a chance for rain by late Wednesday through Thursday across the plains.

The satellite image below shows several features.  One such feature is the weakening tropical storm moving by Hawaii.   Former Hurricane Ana was moving northwest and poised to get caught up in the westerly flow which will take the remnants into the Pacific Northwest.  The green line you can see from left to right is an anomalously strong East Asian Jet stream that was transporting several storms towards the Pacific Northwest.  Those features will deposit copious amounts of precipitation from northern California to Washington.  Good news for them, but for the high plains there won't be much impact.

The chance for rain that I mentioned above will come from the weak system (denoted by the red X on the image above) that was over southwest New Mexico.  It will move slowly towards the central plains and will bring a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, centered on late Wednesday/early Thursday.  The Weather Predication Center offers the map below, which shows the potential rainfall for our area.  Not expecting heavy rains, but at least some rain.  (BTW, look at the amounts for the Pacific Northwest)!

Back to the satellite map above.  Do you see the blue line with arrows?  That is an extension of the polar jet stream.  That is really the first signs of winter and this jet stream is helping to deliver some near blizzard conditions to the north slopes of Alaska with temperatures expected to drop into the single digits.  We won't see any of that in the states for a while, but it is a start for that a general area (albeit a little late).

Speaking of cold weather, there is no sign of a widespread killing freeze across the high plains anytime soon, at least through the end of this month.  However I'm a little cautious in saying that as the aforementioned East Asian Jet is well extended and strong.  A little buckling could deliver Arctic air into the states within a week to 10 days (IF THERE WAS BUCKLING).  Something to keep an eye on.

Finally, my outlook for the remainder of the fall, winter and spring will be posted sometime Wednesday or Thursday.

As always, remember these are my thoughts only and not an official discussion.