A quiet period? Update 10/15/14

In the last two posts I discussed a widespread precipitation event that was about to impact the high plains region.  There were two rains, one late on the 9th (Thursday night) and the other  late Sunday into Monday.  Also, if you go back to the post I did on the 30th of September I was discussing an active period from October 11-17 and that did come to pass but just a little sooner.  The second system that occurred late this past weekend brought very active weather to the eastern half of Kansas and then subsequently across most of the eastern half of the United States this week.  There were killer tornadoes, big hail, high winds and flooding rains in parts of the country, including Arkansas and Missouri.  Across the high plains the precipitation was much lighter as the system did not get organized until after it was passing through (but was in the process of rapidly developing).  The only element that did not occur was a widespread killing freeze.  It did get chilly with some freezes across the plains, but nothing widespread.  I will blog later next week on my thoughts for the late fall/winter/spring outlook and when we can expect the widespread "growing season" ending freeze. These two systems that just impacted the central U.S. "may" be a clue that I'm looking in to for later this year.  More on this later...

The following map shows the amounts of rain that fell this past 7 days, centered on Kansas.  There were very excessive rains in southeast Kansas with almost 10 inches observed!  Most of the region south of Interstate 70 received generous amounts.

On the following satellite image, there really isn't much going on across the central part of the country.  The big L southeast of Chicago is the remants of the system that moved through Kansas/Oklahoma late Sunday and Monday.  It hasn't made much progress.  Then there is Hurricane Gonzalo which is projected to come very close to Bermuda.  By the time it reaches that island the storm may be very intense and if the Bermuda takes a direct hit there will be catastrophic results.

Otherwise, there is not much to discuss on this map.

Our next opportunity for any moisture across the high plains will be perhaps as early as early next week.  But, the prospect looks slim at this time.  Also, it does not appear to be a major precipitation event, even IF it does occur.   I'll take a closer look at that chance in the next couple of days.  As I mentioned early in this post, I'll get out an extended outlook next week which will discuss what is in store into the spring.