Update - April 17, 2015

I soon will be back in the office more frequently and can post more often.  As it is, I'm trying to get caught up from several months of being on the road doing presentations.

In the last post I did on the 10th (click here) I posted a map of the freezing temperatures.  Did anyone notice freeze damage to the wheat?  I also mentioned that there would likely be another freeze across parts of the plains.  That still appears to be a possibility.

Current

The following satellite image shows a huge upper low over Colorado and New Mexico which as brought copious amounts of snow to Colorado and has helped produce heavy rains across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma.

Current snowfall at Monarch Pass,Colorado

Rainfall during the past 48 hours ending early Friday morning (click for a larger version)

And the expected rainfall/precipitation during the next 7 days as provided by the Weather Prediction Center

Although I don't have to provide details, it appears this following week will be unsettled with several strong cold fronts and addition opportunities for some moisture. A freeze is fairly likely later in the week, especially across the western high plains.  I'll try and update the freeze possibility on Monday.

Quick update on the widespread freeze (04/10/15)

On Wednesday (8th) I posted a map from the National Weather Service for expected low temperatures that was valid for this morning.  Unfortunately in that agency they have been gradually moving away from true forecasting (beyond the first 24 hours) to more of a collaborative effort with neighboring forecast offices.  The intent was to make images that appear seamless between offices.  Many of the forecasters now just load model data and blend the results.  So, because of that philosophy, the 48 hour forecast for this morning, in my opinion, was a HUGE bust!  Go back on that post and compare the NWS forecast map to what actually happened this morning. (click for a large version of the map).

There was an AG report that was issued by Kansas State about the amount of damage that was done to wheat with the cold that occurred on the 3rd and 4th.  Based on that report, I would suspect that the widespread cold this morning caused further damage to the wheat.  I guess time will tell though.

Also, as I mentioned in the blog post on the 8th, this will not be the last cold of the spring.  But at least growth should slow down a bit as we go through an overall cooling trend.

I hope to provide an update around next Wednesday.

Still expecting more cold - and moisture! Updated 04/08/15

Way back in January and also in early February I had discussed here on this blog site, and at a conference of Crop Consultants in Wichita, about a warm spell expected late March into early April.  My concern was rapid wheat growth to a point where a freeze later in April could be harmful.  I have not checked any AG sight, but I would assume that some of the wheat, especially across southern Kansas and points south, has already jointed.

Although there were just a few brief cool spells lately (with freezing temperatures this past Saturday), the warmth has returned.  However, I'm still expecting several more cold shots.  The first will likely be this Friday morning (see map below) and others will follow into the third week of April.

Low temperatures forecast Friday morning by the National Weather Service....

Keep in mind that the average date of the last freezing temperature is still some time away so this is not unusual at all!

Average date of the last spring freeze....

The pattern

Looking at the late Wednesday afternoon satellite image, there are several interesting systems that will impact much of the area.

First, the upper level low over western Wyoming was ejecting into the plains Wednesday afternoon.  The associated jet stream and surface features were expected to bring severe weather to much of the southern plains and into Missouri.  The threat of large and long tracked tornadoes will exist with this system.   Check with the local NWS offices in your area or the Storm Prediction Center for details.  The link for SPC is: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/

However, much of the high plains will be left dry by this system, except for areas of Nebraska and Wyoming.

But, hope is on the way!  There are two more systems that will bring precipitation to the plains over the weekend and then again next week.  See the map above.  Details are uncertain, but the Weather Prediction Center offers the following outlook valid through the middle part of next week.

Beyond next week the Pacific is getting active enough that additional precipitation opportunities (on a periodic basis) will start to become greater as we get into late April and May.  There are some indications that much above normal precipitation is possible, especially for May.

The Cold

The pattern has entered into the cold phase of the pattern, but this April version of the pattern has not been that cold as far as deviations below normal.  I think from the 13th through the 22th will be very vulnerable for a hard freeze.  Beyond that date, I think we will be home free.  I'll update more on the cold as I get a chance.

It snowed! Update 04/03/15

I apologize that I cannot write a detailed blog this week as I've been on the road every day doing presentations on severe weather.  Next week, however, I will have time to do detailed assessment of what has been going on and what will happen this month and into the summer.

By the way, it snowed last night across northwest Kansas and northeast Colorado behind a small complex of severe thunderstorms that produced a LOT of wind damage! Several inches were reported in the Goodland area.

If you go back and check earlier posts, I discussed cold returning around the 4th of April and staying in a cold pattern for 2 to 3 weeks.  Although this is only a very brief visit of colder weather (April standards), more is on the way.

So, I will discuss that cold along with prospects for moisture when I do the blog next week (hopefully Monday).  Stay tuned....

Update 3/27/15

Unfortunately this is my busiest time of the year and I have limited time to contribute to this blog.

So, very briefly.

Here is the precipitation that has occurred during the past 14 days.  There was some very beneficial moisture for part of the winter wheat areas....

There was also a bit of snow, although the only measureable snow was across northeast Iowa where up to 15 inches was reported.

On the 6th of March I posted a graph showing what had been the temperature departure from normal for Dodge City, and what might happen through April.  That graphic is next...

What actually has occurred and an updated outlook...

Next week I should be able to give an outlook for April....probably on Wednesday.  Stay tuned.

Update 3/20/15

The small weather system that brought widespread precipitation to Colorado, New Mexico, southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas on Thursday had rapidly moved out of the area by late in the night.

Unfortunately the program I use to generate maps for rainfall is malfunctioning today, so I can only post the following for the western part of Kansas.

There were good rains that fell into Texas and Oklahoma too!  There is a product available from http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ that shows accumulated precipitation based on rain gauge reports and radar.  However, it appeared that radar output from around the area was over estimating due to what we call bright banding (see an explanation of bright banding by clicking here).  I'm not sure, but I hope the folks making the product will adjust down a little bit.  We could not find any reports of 1.5" to 2.0" that is depicted across southwest Kansas.  (click for a large version)

I won't go into any detail as I'm short on time, but the Climate Prediction Center released the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook.  It might be a little optimistic.  I'll come up with a spring precipitation outlook as soon as I get some time. 

Finally, I'm still confident of a major cool down in April with a hard freeze still likely.  I'll update that outlook too sometime next week.

Quick update - 03/18/15

Doing presentations on severe weather this time of year takes a lot of time, so I will make this post brief.

Looking at this late evenings (Wednesday) satellite image, there are two features in particular that I want to discuss.  The first is the "X" across northern Mississippi that brought some rain to parts of Kansas and Oklahoma during the day Wednesday.  There other feature, and more important one, is the "L" over southern Arizona.  This Low will move east towards the plains tonight and Thursday.  Widespread rain will develop and overspread Colorado, southern Kansas, New Mexico, much of Oklahoma and Texas.  Snow will fall across the higher terrain of Colorado.

Amounts of precipitation will vary considerably from one location to the next as much of the precipitation will be convective, in other words pockets of heavier rain in the midst of lighter amounts.  One of the computer models suggests the following that could fall by late Thursday morning.

Additional rain will fall across much of the southern part of Kansas and into Texas and Oklahoma during the afternoon Thursday.

More later when I get more time....