Still expecting more cold - and moisture! Updated 04/08/15

Way back in January and also in early February I had discussed here on this blog site, and at a conference of Crop Consultants in Wichita, about a warm spell expected late March into early April.  My concern was rapid wheat growth to a point where a freeze later in April could be harmful.  I have not checked any AG sight, but I would assume that some of the wheat, especially across southern Kansas and points south, has already jointed.

Although there were just a few brief cool spells lately (with freezing temperatures this past Saturday), the warmth has returned.  However, I'm still expecting several more cold shots.  The first will likely be this Friday morning (see map below) and others will follow into the third week of April.

Low temperatures forecast Friday morning by the National Weather Service....

Keep in mind that the average date of the last freezing temperature is still some time away so this is not unusual at all!

Average date of the last spring freeze....

The pattern

Looking at the late Wednesday afternoon satellite image, there are several interesting systems that will impact much of the area.

First, the upper level low over western Wyoming was ejecting into the plains Wednesday afternoon.  The associated jet stream and surface features were expected to bring severe weather to much of the southern plains and into Missouri.  The threat of large and long tracked tornadoes will exist with this system.   Check with the local NWS offices in your area or the Storm Prediction Center for details.  The link for SPC is: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/

However, much of the high plains will be left dry by this system, except for areas of Nebraska and Wyoming.

But, hope is on the way!  There are two more systems that will bring precipitation to the plains over the weekend and then again next week.  See the map above.  Details are uncertain, but the Weather Prediction Center offers the following outlook valid through the middle part of next week.

Beyond next week the Pacific is getting active enough that additional precipitation opportunities (on a periodic basis) will start to become greater as we get into late April and May.  There are some indications that much above normal precipitation is possible, especially for May.

The Cold

The pattern has entered into the cold phase of the pattern, but this April version of the pattern has not been that cold as far as deviations below normal.  I think from the 13th through the 22th will be very vulnerable for a hard freeze.  Beyond that date, I think we will be home free.  I'll update more on the cold as I get a chance.