Thursday, April 23, 2015

Update - April 23, 2015

The last freeze over the weekend was not quite as harsh as the one earlier in the month but I did see a few spots dip into the middle 20s.  I have not seen any crop report on the amount of freeze damage.
At some locations it may not matter as it is becoming apparent that some locations have been too dry to sustain a good stand.  The following map is the amount of precipitation that has fallen since April 1st. (click for a larger version)



 It is very discouraging to see the dry areas so close to areas with decent rainfall.  The heaviest amounts during this 3 week period were in central Kansas across parts of Stafford county where over 12 inches was observed during this time.  Also, there was a very wet area across west central Oklahoma with amounts in excess of 12 inches there too!

Looking at the latest drought monitor for the country....
one of the hardest hit areas of the drought received quite a bit of rain, thus the improvement.  But those that have so dry have seen the drought intensify again.

A closer look....

and the weekly change...

Attention turns to the next weather maker, a fairly strong upper level storm across western Arizona. Take a look at the satellite...

Normally this time of year with the low in this position and with a tropical feed of moisture coming up out of Mexico, this would be the recipe for widespread thunderstorms with heavy rainfall.  But, amazingly the atmosphere is NOT primed as several cold intrusions during the month of April have wiped out a lot of gulf of Mexico moisture (the cold phase that I talked about in previous posts).

However, there should still be precipitation, just not quite as widespread as we normally would see.  Plus the system coming out of the southwest U.S. will be in a decaying stage, in part due to the wind flow aloft across the higher latitudes of North America.  There was another low/system over the gulf of Alaska that will be diving southeast and will bring addition rains late Sunday and Monday.The Weather Prediction Center offers the following forecast of precipitation through Tuesday night.


It appears that we should be past the date for a widespread killing freeze.  Later next week there could be a morning or two by mid-week where the mercury will fall into the 30s, especially across the high plains.  A warming trend will commence beyond the middle of next week and persist into May.

Finally, just as a teaser, the Climate Prediction Center has released their drought outlook into the deep of summer.  I'll discuss the prospects for moisture for the remainder of the spring and summer in a post I hope to do next week.  In the meantime, here is the outlook from Climate Prediction Center...





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