Here is this mornings satellite image....
The upper part of the storm is very far south and is tapping into to loads of Pacific moisture! As this system turns and then heads towards the central U.S., it will cause a surface low to rapidly deepen by Wednesday. In advance of this happening, there were will be several rounds of rain (and even thunder) moving out into the central U.S.. For many days computer forecast models have been indicating very excessive rain for the high plains which would be detrimental as soils are saturated and there is still a lot of frost in the ground. Runoff from excessive rainfall would cause flooding.
At this point amounts will probably average around 3/4 of an inch from this storm, but there still will be locations 1 1/2 to 2 inches from embedded thunderstorms. In those locations there will be local flooding. I came back from Topeka yesterday (Sunday) and I've never seen so much standing water and rivers/creeks this fall for this time of year. Incredible!
With frost still pretty deep into the ground and with the overly saturated profile, I've also calculated several runoff scenarios for a few of the lakes. I think there is a reasonable chance that HorseThief Reservoir will see a 3 to 5 foot rise after this storm, which will inundate several of the Yurts and camping spots. Also, Clark County Lake will probably also see a 3 to 5 foot rise, despite the outlet opened up to lower the lake to repair the spillway. And finally, Cedar Bluff. The springs are open, the river has been flowing (when it's not been iced over), and there has been a steady rise in the reservoir since October. With the runoff from the melted snow over this past weekend; with the runoff from this upcoming storm; and with the general weather pattern, I'm banking on a 100 percent chance that it will go to 2130 (or just 14 feet low) by July 1. I'll put the odds at 60% of reaching conservation "full" (2144 ft) by July 1. Honestly, if it ends up less than full, I'll be disappointed and a little shocked.
Back to the up-coming storm. The system will generate high wind! Speeds of over 60 MPH by Wednesday will be likely. Farther north and west (across northeast Colorado into north central Nebraska), there will be an epic blizzard! Again, check details with weather.gov. It's not out of the question that "wrap-around" snow will reach as far east as Garden City through Wakeeney... at least it'll be close.
In the previous post I discussed additional opportunities for more precipitation and colder than average temperatures going deep in to March. This continues to look like a pretty likely scenario. This no doubt will continue woes for agriculture. From the Kansas State Mesonet (here is the link to this valuable network of observations: http://mesonet.k-state.edu/), soil temperatures are at record lows for this time of year. At the Colby station....
This morning here were the 2 inch soil temperatures....
What is amazing was the percent saturation of soil at 50 cm deep....
Here is the 7 day outlook for potential precipitation, although the majority of this is for this current storm...
I'll try and update later in the week.
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