In producer meetings I spoke at during the past month, I had mentioned how brutal February into March was going to be. But, I also was expecting a pretty good warm-up by mid March that would probably last into mid-April before yet another surge of cold would return. Much of that notion was derived from the cycle of the general pattern that developed during the fall. Also, confidence was increased based on the phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Many of the long range tropical models hinted at the MJO going into a warmer phase for U.S. starting mid-month.
But now confidence is growing that the MJO may not make it much past the eastern part of the Indian Ocean Basin.
If that indeed happens, look for the cold to continue, on average for the remainder of March! That's not to say that there won't be several days of above normal temperatures (in advance of storm systems), but in general the high plains should end with more cold days that warm.
Here is what typically occurs during these phases of the MJO (2 and 3) for March.
As far as storm systems, there appears to be quite a few more opportunities, not all of which will hit the high plains of Kansas. But, there should be more precipitation, and some of that will be liquid, some of it frozen. The odds are continuing high for at least one more blizzard across parts of the high plains.
Here is the outlook for precipitation through early next week. Speaking of which, around the 12th or 13th, there will likely be quite a storm. Details of course this far out cannot be nailed down. But I would imagine that particular storm will have everything (i.e., snow, rain, lots of wind, thunder, and possible hail for mainly eastern KS)...
I'll try and get an update out early next week.
No comments:
Post a Comment