Unfortunately No April Fools Joke - Updated 04/01/16

I wish what I'm about to post was just an April Fool's Joke.  Sadly, I'm getting more and more distressed with this weather pattern.  If you go back through many of the posts since last summer, the "El Nino" that was to bring flooding rains to California and the southwest U.S. and wettness to the plains (according to the "experts") did not pan out.  I had high confidence that California and the southwest would NOT benefit due to other forcing mechanisms.  I also thought the plains would be wet, especially for early spring, but the reasoning was NOT because of El Nino!  The pattern that established during the fall that, in general, brought above normal precipitation during the October through December period.  I had a strong feeling that the pattern would benefit this area of the country during the spring.  Unfortunately that was a busted outlook as the pattern changed during mid-December and simply has NOT gone back to what it had been, at least not entirely. 

I've been patiently waiting and patiently encouraged that the pattern would settle back into what we had during the fall.  But lately I've been getting slowly discouraged as changes just aren't happening!  There still is a huge blocking ridge off the southwest coast (see the satellite image below).  The north Pacific is still active but the systems generally have been weakening as they get to the central part of the country.  The trend is not good!

Here is the latest satellite image...


 

There was an upper level system this Friday morning that was bringing at least some rain to the panhandle and west Texas and eventually should bring precipitation to parts of Oklahoma.  But the system was weak and was weakening!  We really need to see that ridge off the west coast to break down some.  Pray that it does!

My office here at the NWS in Dodge City put out a really nice and telling briefing slide this morning, and was spot on.


The drought monitor is really picking up on the drying conditions.  Moderate drought conditions are expanding.  At least the corn belt is looking good so far (except for parts of the western belt).



Unfortunately the outlook through next week does not look favorable across the plains...

 
 I haven't given up all hope, but the further we get into spring without changes, the more serious this is going to get.  But, remember last year it was really dry in March and then the spigot turned on in April and especially May.  I will try and update this blog next Friday (I still am swamped) and I sure hope I have good news!