Update 04/29/16

In the previous post I did on the 25th (read it here) I talked about the changes to the jetstream flow across the western U.S. that was expected to shift precipitation back into the plains.  That certainly has happened with copious amounts of rain last night and today (Friday) and with the potential for heavy front range and mountain snows.  At the Dodge City airport we set a record for April with 7.90" as of noon today, with a potential for a little more into Saturday morning.  I saw several reports over 3 inches from this system.  If I get a chance I might update with a precipitation map.

Looking at the afternoon satellite image...




The upper system (X1) that brought the heavy rain overnight and this morning was located near Garden City and was lifting rapidly north and northeast.  The main system (the L over northern New Mexico) was wrapping heavy snow into Colorado (rain at lower elevations) and was slowly moving east.  But, this system was also beginning to weaken slowly as a lot of the energy will be transferred to X1.  But before doing so, there should be large amounts of precipitation across Colorado, northern Kansas and into Nebraska.

Another system (X2) was dropping south-southeast out west and it could be strong enough to bring another round of precipitation to the Rockies and western plains late Sunday into Monday.  The weather should then settle down for the remainder of next week, but temperatures will remain near or below normal.   Yet another change in the jet stream could setup an active period starting late next weekend or the following week (May 8-13). 

If you go all the way back to the posts I did late last summer and during the fall, I discussed similarities in the indices of El Nino and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.  It is one of the reasons I wasn't sold on the dire predictions of death and destruction from this years so called Godzilla of all El Ninos.  Go back and take the time to read those posts if you can.  Anyway, I suspected that our weather across the plains could be similar to the 57/58 El Nino event.  So far, that has basically followed suite (with a few differences).  

The following map shows a composite of the precipitation anomaly for June and July 1958.  Look at the above normal precipitation anomaly for that period!


Temperatures were influenced by the rainfall and no doubt lush vegetation.  The following map shows the temperature departure for the same period:


Based on the pattern that has existed since last fall and taking a hunch that this summer may be similar to 1958, the following prediction made by the Climate Prediction Center may not be far off!

 

What I'm saying is that I'm leaning towards normal to above normal precipitation from Kansas into the Corn Belt, for June and July combined.  Yes, there will be dry stretches though.  The southern plains may begin to start a drying trend but may still get some timely rains.  As far as temperatures, perhaps normal to below in the same area (except from Amarillo south where it will likely be warming up quite a bit).  The bad news is that by the end of the summer (August) will most likely be drying out and heating up, even into the corn belt.  Hopefully all of that will be past corn pollination.