Update - November 19, 2014

Probably the biggest news during the last few days is the absurd amount of lake effect snow that the eastern Great Lakes has received and will continue to receive.  Google "lake effect snow 2014" and look at some of the crazy photos and video!  As of this afternoon there were observers that had already picked up 6 feet of snow and more was on the way.  The most awesome time lapse I've witnessed can be found here.

Back to high plains weather....

The temperature at the Dodge City airport on the 10th of November rose to 80 degrees at 1245 PM but had fallen to 22 by midnight, and 16 by Tuesday morning.  That's ridiculous! The brutal change from a relatively mild Fall to Winter that was ushered in on the heels of the November cold is letting up a bit.   A few more brief surges of colder air can be expected during the next 5 days (intermixed with mild temperatures).  At least there has been a warmup.  However, the warmup has been and will be tempered by snow cover.  The map below shows what the snow cover that was observed on the 18th.

If you read back on the past few posts, I discussed the pattern shift that caused this outbreak of cold.  Basically the change that took place has locked into place. This bothers me a little bit.  I was expecting this shift to occur.  But, I did not expect that particular pattern to persist this long (at least for now) and the longer it does persist the more likely that it will repeat often into the deep of winter.  The upshot of that scenario is a tendency for a cold and dry winter (below normal temps, below normal precip).

On the satellite image above, the blue line with arrows denotes the polar jet stream, capable of bringing Arctic air into the U.S., which has been ongoing since the 10th.  If that persists, then there will be periodic Arctic fronts sweeping across the country (and High Plains).   The issue for now is the blocking that is anchored over western Canada.  First, it is preventing the moist Pacific jet stream from entering into the country from the west.  Second, it is allowing the persistence of the polar jet to be in the same configuration.  That blocking should break down soon.  However, as it does break down the jet stream may reconfigure in such as fashion as to bring additional cold to the U.S., with a threat of precipitation, especially if it shifts westward.

In the blog I did on November 7th (click here for that discussion) I stated "the atmosphere should reorganize and re-energize and then could unleash some nastiness around Thanksgiving.  There is a small signal of a high impact weather event  during the last 5 days of the month.  The only problem, I don't know if it'll be in the central plains, midwest, or north.  I'd bet though that there will be travel issues across the country about then."  That is still a very real possibility, even though the long range computer forecast models from the U.S. shows NOTHING!  Even if the high plains misses out on a potential storm, there will likely be another outbreak of Arctic air.  I'll update Friday or next Monday.

Beyond next week there are signals to high impact events the first 10 days of December, especially for additional cold.