I hope everyone is ready for the cold! In the previous post (click here) I mentioned the cold coming up for this next week "By the middle part of next week high temperatures may be in the 20s/30s and lows in the single digits to teens". This post I'm writing today is an update to those thoughts.
As expected, the remnants of what was once Typhoon Nuri is transitioning into a super deep and extremely strong ex-tropical low across the Bering See/Aleutian islands. The video below shows the wind pattern with that system and with other weather systems. Click on the video to play.
There have been forecasts of winds to be up to 100 MPH and wave heights well in excess of 50 feet (some estimates near 100 feet if that can be believed)! This intense storm up there will force warm air north into the Arctic. The frigid air up in the Arctic as of today (Friday) will therefore be forced south, right towards the U.S.. Additional downstream propagating energy will also produce other mechanisms to displace the cold. So, the result for us across the high plains will be an end to the relatively mild Fall and the start to winter conditions. Most of the impacts this time will be from the cold and not snow or ice. Yes, there could very well be a little snow during the stretch of the cold but amounts, if any, should be minimal.
At 9 AM this Friday morning the cold air was already headed south but at a slow and steady pace. Temperatures across northern Canada were around 15 below zero (that is not wind chill). The front that was the leading edge to the winter cold will arrive across Kansas sometime Monday.
The following video is output from one of the global forecasting computer models that generates a simulated forecast. This one shows the invading cold, but don't get caught up in the numbers. It is actually too warm!
Temperatures by mid-week (~12th) may struggle to get out of the upper teens and 20s for highs! Lows will dip well into the teens and single digits at some locations. Although there may be a brief warmup (warmup may be misleading) Friday or Saturday, a second and perhaps even colder airmass could invade the area Sunday and Monday (16th-17th). One of the long range global models has temperatures down to 5 to 15 below zero as far south as southwest Kansas!
Beyond this next 7 to 10 day period the atmosphere should reorganize and re-energize and then could unleash some nastiness around Thanksgiving. There is a small signal of a high impact weather event during the last 5 days of the month. The only problem, I don't know if it'll be in the central plains, midwest, or north. I'd bet though that there will be travel issues across the country about then. I'll update that possibility at a later time.
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