Update - November 21, 2014

Finally the Arctic November chill has moved out of the high plains, although with low clouds and fog it was still rather chilly across the eastern high plains Friday afternoon.  The Arctic cold that we endured was one of the top 3 coldest periods for November.   The average temperature at Dodge City from November 11-17 was only 21.3 degrees, or about 23 degrees below normal!  This is the 3rd coldest 7 day stretch in November for Dodge City, since records began in 1875.  The 2nd coldest 7 day stretch was in 1952 when the average temperature was 19.8 degrees.  The coldest was way back in 1880 when the average was as astonishing 11.4 degrees (November 16-22)!  Compare that to normal which is 44 degrees!

Snowfall across the plains last weekend from 2 separate systems ranged from  less than one inch to 4 1/2 inches, depending on your location. 

From the post I did on the 7th of November and the one I did on the 19th, I discussed a potential major storm around Thanksgiving.  Any thoughts of WHERE this might occur was up in the air as the system was not showing up on any numerical weather guidance and really not showing up on analysis products.  As of Friday (this writing), I still don't have a real good feel for the development or placement.  For a few days the European forecast model (ECMWF) did have a system for next week - and it's usually the most accurate that is available to view.  However, during the past few iterations it didn't have anything.

On the map below the most notable feature is the very strong and anomalously strong jet stream across the Pacific ocean basin.  This configuration and magnitude is very unstable.  In most cases as this unstable and energetic jet breaks down, chaos ensues in the form of rapid intensification and downstream amplification of the upper level winds.  During the cold months this usually means a significant storm.  But the $10 million dollar question is exactly when and where!  Numerical weather prediction models are all over the place and therefore are of no help.


Satellite image showing the strong jet (red arrows)

Friday afternoon there was a rather significant storm over Arizona which will bring widespread rain to central/east Texas and eastern Oklahoma and into the Mississippi Valley.  Then eventually heavy rains on the east coast.

The Weather Prediction Center of the NWS offers this solution over the next 7 days....

As far as the Thanksgiving storm...I just don't know yet.  If it is going to show up as an organizing storm, it might not be until Monday or Tuesday.  But when it does start developing it might do so very rapidly.  Right now my gut feeling is that it will affect areas from Chicago to the northeast or New England areas.  If you will be flying then you should probably expect delays.

I'll try and follow up on Monday and see what is showing up.  Earlier this fall I talked about repeatable weather systems, once they establish themselves in the Fall.  I'm not finding that repeating system, yet.

Enjoy the first half of the weekend.  Colder (though not Arctic cold) temperatures are in store for Sunday/Monday.