Updated - June 19, 2020

In the previous post I did on May 31 (click here), I discussed the ongoing and expanding drought.  I had concerns then and still do today, even though we will be in a "wet" pattern for the next week. 

On February 24 I made a forecast that June 18-19 would be a period that there would either be an outbreak of severe weather or there would be excessive rains!  I then posted in this blog on April 22 about that same period.  This morning (19th) there was a widespread precipitation event that covered much of the central U.S..  At the Dodge City airport this morning there was 2.27 inches of rain in about 2 hours.  There weren't any official reports as of this writing, but it appears that a few 3-4 inch amounts were observed.  Did everyone get that much rain?  Of course not, but there were good rains across much of the area.  And, for a morning event - that is pretty impressive!  Another round is possible this Friday night spreading in from eastern Colorado.  Beyond tonight, there will be yet another couple of rounds through the middle to latter part of next week.  Thus, the earlier thinking that the 2nd half of June could see above normal rainfall is still in play.  Unfortunately, it might be back to a dry stretch after that.

What has really been hurting things is the excessive and persistent wind!   Through June 18, the average wind at Dodge City was 18.7 MPH (that is an average of hourly observations every day) and this is the 2nd windiest June on record, so far!  Plus, dew point temperatures have been lower than average resulting in relative humidities staying quite low during the heat of the day.  That has worsened the drought.



But, at least for now, the humidity will be higher, temperatures lower and like I stated several more chances for thunderstorms.

Going into July, I think there may be a couple of good chances for thunderstorms but I'm afraid those chances may not be enough to alleviate the drought. In fact, here is the latest outlook:



Let's see how this next 7-10 days shakes out.  IF, that's a big if, thunderstorms can be widespread enough with generous rain then this may mitigate the drought impacts at least a little.  I'm only very slightly optimistic about that.  BTW - August 13-14 - could it be another good chance for precipitation?

Here is the precipitation outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through next Friday.



I'll do my best to update towards the end of next week, say ~June 26.

Update - May 31, 2020

I'll just start this one with - I have some bad news.  Let me go back to the fall when this weather pattern set up.

Back in October when this weather pattern got established and as fall progressed, there was a pretty good signal that there were going to be periods of active weather systems impacting the western high plains.  But, as is often the case for this area, weather systems require gulf of Mexico moisture to become efficient precipitation producers.  Those that have paid close attention; during the fall, winter and early spring there were many cold front passages and weather systems near by.  Sometimes the systems were wet, but mostly they were merely windy and dry.  As we entered spring, these cold fronts pushed the gulf moisture well south and even some times out into the Gulf!  As weather systems approached, the gulf moisture was late in returning, thus much of the area missed out on beneficial rain/snow.  Then to make matters worse, the elevated mixed layer (EML) - essentially the warm layer aloft (Capping Inversion) was a bit strong so that showers and storms formed farther north and east.

I thought April would have at least average precipitation.  But that thought was dead wrong.  I blame it again on the gulf of Mexico moisture being shunted too far south and east (and the airmasses were a tad chilly).  Then for May, I was expecting a particularly active period from May 10-28. That didn't work out too well although there were plenty of systems - just a lack of gulf of Mexico moisture again.  I've rarely seen a May with a lack of surface moisture so often!   In the post I did on May 6, I started stating that uneasy feeling that the high plains were going to be on the edge of the more significant precipitation.  I repeated that once again in the following blog post on May 14.  Now, I'm REALLY worried!

For the past 2 years, I've been stressing that the high plains has been blessed with above normal precipitation - and in some areas excessively for multiple years.  If history was to repeat itself, the pendulum would definitely swing the other way. Unfortunately, I think that has started.  There are now strong signals that dryness will accelerate.  Here is the latest drought map (caution - it's ugly)...



Here is the precipitation map for the past 14 days....




Here is the percent of normal for May (very ugly for the high plains)…



The drought area that developed last fall did see some precipitation this past several weeks but not nearly enough or widespread enough to help much.

Now with hot and windy conditions, it will only get worse.  Will there be some help soon?  Unfortunately, it doesn't look like it.  Here is the satellite image from this evening...



That is not a very typical winds aloft configuration for late May.  One thing of note is the convection (thunderstorms) across Mexico.  I would hesitate to call that the birth of this years North American Monsoon, but it's something to watch.  Another interesting area is the large high pressure center northeast of Hawaii!  Could this be tied to what is now happening with Pacific Equatorial waters?  They have cooled significantly during the past several months.  Here is the latest 7 day average (notice the below normal waters now)….



The prediction is for a La Nina to develop this fall or winter.  Tied with water temperatures cooling down significantly across the north Atlantic could very well contribute to an expanding drought.  But wait!  Remember I said that the pattern that developed last fall had quite a few active systems? Yes, but here is the problem.  We are now in the Summer season.  Weather systems shift north (typically).  So, the active pattern would benefit the northern plains at least, maybe as far south as I-70 in Kansas.
Well then.  Does that mean that the high plains of Kansas will be dry until infinity?  No, I still insist that there will be several opportunities for widespread thunderstorms.  I'm just afraid that those opportunities will be fewer as things have shifted north.  IF during the opportune times that other processes are going on (like the warm layer aloft being too strong, or for what ever reason surface moisture is lacking, etc), then the drought will get worse and may start to expand east, despite some rainfall.

Here is my hope.  Back in one of the blogs I did in April (22nd), I mentioned June 18-19 as a curiously and potentially BIG period.  Could it be for the high plains?  There are hints by some longer range computer models that the last half with odds favoring above  normal rainfall.  I'm not buying in on that just yet.   It's not out of the range of possibilities that as the latter part of June arrives, that we get into a northwest flow aloft pattern.  That could yield what are called MCS's (Mesoscale Convective Systems) that are typically good rainfall producers - but unfortunately often bring a lot of wind.  If we don't get those, then it's going to get really bad.

Lastly, here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through the end of next weekend.  Ugh.



With a lot on my plate (personal obligations) - I may not get another post done until ~ June 10 (the earliest would be the 8th).

Update - May 14, 2020

After a "cold" period during this past week, it looks as if the weather will be warming up significantly.  BUT, that doesn't mean there won't be a few "cool" days mixed in during the next few weeks.  Soil temperatures this past week certainly took a hit.  Here is a map of 4" soil temperatures as of 215 PM this Thursday afternoon....



For mid-May, that is pretty cold don't you think?

For a while now I've been expecting an up-tick in weather activity from the 10th through 28th, specifically.  Since the last post I did on the 6th (you can read that post by clicking here), there were several systems bringing precipitation and generous amounts.  However, the growing drought area largely missed out.  This has been a concern of mine lately.  I sure have an uneasy feeling as we get deeper into the growing season.  Here is the map of rainfall (and actually snow in north central Kansas) for the past 7 days....



Eastern Kansas continues to be targeted with a lot of rain!  And the west?  Mostly missing out.  Will this continue through the 28th?

Again, I've expected this increase in activity for this period of 10th-28th that we've been in.  I would highly surprised is the drought area misses again, and again for this period.  Will it be enough to jump out of drought conditions.  I don't think so, at least through the rest of this month.  Here is the expected precipitation through next Thursday (from the Weather Prediction Center)….



With luck, that dry area will get quite a bit through the end of the Month.  But, I this point I wouldn't expect overly heavy rains.  I'm also concerned that other parts of the high plains may be on the edge of the elevated mixed layer (the warm air aloft or capping inversion that prevents widespread precipitation).

I'll try and update early next week....

Update - May 6, 2020

I'm starting this post by reviewing recent outlooks.  As you may recall in the post I did on April 14 I mentioned a possible light freeze or frost between May 1 and May 6 across the high plains.  I put the odds at rather small - but at that point there were absolutely no computer models hinting at much more cold for the remainder of the spring.  And, many forecasters said we were done with the cold.  In the post I did on April 22 I refined that cold outlook to May 5-6 (and the long range computer models STILL did no indicate any cold).  The cold arrived right on schedule!  Here is a map (at least for Kansas) of minimum temperatures ending May 5.



Here is a map of lows this morning (May 6).



Unfortunately there looks to be one more cold period at the end of this week.  Frost or a light freeze seems pretty certain either Friday morning or Saturday morning, or both.

In that last post, I also said that the May 5-6 period would probably be the next chance for widespread precipitation and probably severe thunderstorms.  Well both occurred, but only across the northern part of the high plains and on into eastern Kansas and Oklahoma.  That in itself is a little discouraging going forward and I'll explain later in this post.  Here is a map of severe weather reports for 05/04 ending 05/05...



So I feel pretty good that I was able to time the cold but why was the precipitation and severe weather displaced?  For early May there is typically a rich source of gulf moisture.  But because of frequent strong cold fronts this spring, the deeper moisture has often swept all the way through Texas and into the Gulf of Mexico.  So, because the lower atmosphere moisture has been less than normal for the high plains in advance of weather systems, the elevated mixed layer (capping inversion) has been strong enough to displace thunderstorms north and east of the majority of the high plains.  Will that continue?  To a point, probably but as we get deeper into May I think things should turn around.

In the previous outlooks I mentioned May 10-28 as being particular active.  I still believe that will be the case. Hopefully the majority of the active period will be wetter in lieu of severe weather but I'm pretty confident that severe weather episodes will ramp up.  Still - I have this uneasy feeling that  much of the high plains may be on the edge of the widespread rains.  It's just a feeling.  I'm still counting on much more rainfall.  Do you remember last year?  It was really dry until late April and then the faucet was turned on.  So far, that may repeat for a period this month.  But if it doesn't happen during this month, we may be in trouble.

Back to previous posts and outlooks.  Earlier in the winter, I was pretty confident that April would be cooler than normal and wetter.  The temperature outlook wasn't too bad.  But the precipitation outlook was trash!  There were systems but they were too fast and there wasn't enough boundary layer moisture in most cases.  Here is the percent of normal for April....



As a result, the drought has begun to expand once again across the high plains. There is that uneasy feeling again.  Here is the map of precipitation that fell during the previous 14 days ending this Wednesday morning (May 6)...



At least the northern part of the high plains did well.

And with that continued lack of precipitation across much of the high plains....the drought map.




So for that period of May 10-28...

To start, there should be several opportunities next week.  But before then, a weak disturbance moving southeast from the northwest U.S. (the red X on the satellite image below) will ignite widespread showers and thunderstorms this Wednesday night but unfortunately will largely miss the high plains again!



All indications from the Jetstream configuration should benefit at least part of the high plains next week.  One indication is the tropical connection.  That is indicated by the green arrows on the satellite image (bottom left stretching up into the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles).   That is likely tied to a rather robust (for May) MJO that continues propagating through the Maritime Continents.

Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through next Wednesday.



I'll do my best to update early next week.

Update - April 22, 2020

So...remember the dates I threw out there about April 21 and 22, starting in the post I did on February 27?  In the previous post last week (April 14 and you can read that one by clicking here), I wrote that all the long range forecast models had shown absolutely nothing for the 21st and 22nd and that was only 7 to 8 days away! Today is wrapping up a couple day storm.  Although some areas didn't get a whole lot of rain, there was quite a bit of the mid-southern high plains that got widespread 1 to 3 inches rain!  Here is the map but it is only up until 7 AM this Wednesday morning so won't count what fell today....



In the previous discussion with many of you about that 21st/22nd period when I made that prediction back in February - I had my reasons of timing and pattern recognition.  At that time I thought that if everything panned out, then with the expected weather pattern for the time period in April, there should be severe weather (blizzard in the cold sector).  But as it turned out, deep boundary layer moisture for this storm was hard to come by (given the really cold regime around Easter that shut everything down into the gulf).  There was severe weather, but south of Kansas.  Here are the reports from yesterday morning through this morning....




If deeper and richer gulf moisture had been in place, I feel strongly that we'd be talking about very widespread severe reports in addition to flooding rains.   

So why did long range models even 7 days out fail to pick up on this storm?  It's because there are so many variables that models just can't accurately account for everything in the atmosphere.  Plus, there is too much feedback in the atmosphere that an accurate forecast from a model is often not possible.  Even on a very short times scale, computer forecast models are not that accurate, many times.  As an example, the next 3 images show various short range computer models and their quantitative precipitation forecast for Dodge City.  The models were run less than 6 hours apart in time.

Forecast number 1


Forecast number 2


Forecast number 3


For several days they had shown 1.2 to 3.0 inches of rain in Dodge.  We got only ~ 1/2 of an inch.  But, south of here only 20 miles it was closer to 1.5 to 2 inches.  So, a shift of the small of a distance was the difference.  If a short term high resolution model can't get it right at a specific point, how in the heck can we trust long range models many days to weeks in advance?  For me, it's showing trends and hedging what direction to go (precipitation and temperature anomalies).

Going forward....

Looking at the satellite image from earlier today



The main system was moving out of the area.  In the flow aloft, there was a weak disturbance observed across Oregon.  That could help bring widely scattered showers or storms tomorrow (Thursday).

But, based on the pattern that developed during the early fall, the area should go through a relatively dry spell - but warmer too!  Vegetation should really start to take off!

Here is the outlook from the Weather Prediction Center for possible precipitation through early next Wednesday (29th) which should include what falls (Thursday-early Friday)….



I did mention in the previous post that if any frost or freeze were to occur again for this spring, it would be between May 1 and May 6 (and a light freeze or frost).  But I gave that a very slim chance (5-10 percent).  I still see that possibility, especially farther west near the Kansas/Colorado border and into western Nebraska.  Pinpointing more specifically it looks like May 5-6.  In addition, around that May 5-6 period will probably be the next chance for widespread precipitation (but probably severe thunderstorms before the brief colder weather makes a brief appearance).

At this time, I'm looking at the period from around May 10th through the 28th to be particularly active. More on that later.

Finally, I'll leave this date to ponder.  June 18-19.  Mark it on your calendar.

Update - April 14, 2020

In the previous entry that was done March 27, I had a discussion about more cold.  For some reason, many people (experts?) were in discussion about the early spring and likelihood that severe cold was over.  In that March 27th posting, I wrote that it was way too early and that I was very confident of well below freezing temperatures occurring again, several times, for much of the high plains.  Hopefully the cold that occurred this past 12 days didn't cause too much damage (there had to be some, right?).

As far as precipitation, at least for the past 14 days, here is a map of what fell (which included more snow)….

The ominous "hole" centered on western Kansas was expected if you read my last posting as a "temporary slowdown" was expected starting in April.

What is next?

Looking at this afternoons messy satellite image.....

Our next weather maker is the X1 up across southwest Canada.  It will move east and then dive south by Thursday.  It will usher in another strong cold front.  Depending on the exact evolution, it appears the majority of the precipitation will remain across northern Kansas but especially eastern Kansas and points south and east.  The system will be cold enough for snow again, mainly north of I-70.   That cold with that front will be brief though.  By the weekend milder air will start to return.

Going forward, it would appear the last 7-10 days of April will be much warmer.  As far as a repeat of the severe cold after that period - I'm not seeing much possibility at all.  Will there be another freeze?  During that period I don't believe so.  But - there is a small chance (less than 5-10 percent) that a light freeze or frost could occur between May 1 and May 6 for the high plains. More on that later.

Remember the dates of April 21-22 that I have mentioned since the 27th of February posting (and mentioned it again in the last update)?  Well, the long range computer models for weeks now have shown absolutely NOTHING around that date!  Am I backing off?  Nope, I'm going to stick with something (potentially substantial) happening in the general vicinity of the high plains.  Ha, we'll see.

Here is the precipitation outlook from the Weather Prediction Center valid through next Tuesday the 21st...(the precipitation you see for the central U.S. is for this coming Thursdays system)...

I'll do my best to get another post done late in the weekend or early next week.

Update - March 27, 2020

This is certainly a challenging time for all of us due to the COVID-19 pandemic, low crude oil prices and other "things".  I've finally have mustered up enough time and desire to get an update done to this blog.

In the last post I did on the 6th (if you didn't have a chance to read it you can click here), I discussed several upcoming storm chances (10th, 13, 20th) and all verified for the most part.  What many have probably already witnessed or observed though is that the region that has the drought is mostly missing the majority of the precipitation.  Here is the latest drought map...

...and the map of precipitation over the past 2 weeks.

It is definitely concerning that the pattern right now is not helping out much with this drier area on the drought map.  But, we've been in a pretty active pattern!  Did you know that, for instance, the winter of Dec-Jan-Feb for Dodge City was the 16th wettest on record?  For Hays it was the 4th wettest winter on record!  This does NOT happen unless the pattern is an active one.  The million dollar question is if this will shift west and south.  I think there is a chance as the spring progresses and boundary layer moisture becomes more abundant. But there is still nagging feeling of uneasiness. If the Climate Prediction Center drought outlook has any validity (it's pretty optimistic) .....



Looking at sea surface temperatures over the past week....



The eye catcher for me is the anomalously warm water in the Gulf of Mexico.  Early spring conditions such as this in the presence of an active pattern usually contributes to quite a few outbreaks of severe weather.  This would include Kansas, eventually.  Just not sure how far west.  But, it's also a source for that aforementioned boundary layer moisture that hopefully will get farther west with time going forward.

Looking at the Friday afternoon satellite image....



The next weather system affecting the high plains is currently (as of Friday afternoon - the red L over northern Arizona) poised to move out into the central U.S. tonight and Saturday.  But for most of the high plains it appears that it will come out too far north to benefit much, as far as significant precipitation.  The wrap-around precipitation will bring rain and SNOW to the northern part of the high plains.

The red X west of Washington on the map will bring a better chance for precipitation for larger part of the high plains early next week (primarily late Monday into Tuesday) but it could very well do what the other systems have done lately - missing much of the drought area.  But, keeping fingers crossed.

There are other systems that could impact the region going into April but I suspect there may be a temporary slowdown.  On the satellite image you can see the bright colors on the far lower left.  It looks like this could be yet another MJO developing but this time enhancing farther east.  Looking at composites of MJO's, the predicted path and evolution would favor above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for much of April.  BUT, there appear to be other more important factors in forcing the atmosphere for the spring.   So, I'm not sold on above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for April.  In fact, I would still lean towards an active pattern.  Active enough to get another strong storm or two - or three or four.  Remember my date of April 21-22 I threw out there in the post I did on the 27th of February?  Yeah, there is a reason for that.

Also, there is some indication that the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation may be starting to flip negative or at least near neutral.  This could enhance storm systems moving into the central U.S..

Here is the Arctic Oscillation....



...and the North Atlantic Oscillation....




As far as more cold.  We are just too early yet.  I'm very confident of well below freezing temperatures occurring again, several times, for much of the high plains. 

Here is the outlook for precipitation through next Friday, April 3rd...



I'll do my best to update later next week...